633
FXUS63 KGRR 220436
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1136 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Dry Through The Weekend

- Chance of Rain late Monday through Tuesday

- Colder Weather Ahead

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Mostly Dry Through The Weekend

 A large upper level low moving through the Great Plains has a
frontal boundary that extends through the mid west and into the
Mid Atlantic. That boundary is bringing showers though Illinois,
Indiana and Ohio. While some very light showers is possible
through the southern border of Michigan this evening, the bulk of
precipitation should remain to the south.

 A corresponding upper level low situated over Canada will
continue it`s trek eastward. an adjoining trough will sweep
southward bringing northwesterly flow with increased moisture
tomorrow.
 The trough will swing through Saturday afternoon/evening and
though there will be some mid level moisture, any corresponding
precipitation should remains to the north and east, keeping the
region dry.
  Around normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
with a warming trend Sunday into Monday.

- Chance of Rain late Monday through Tuesday

 A negatively tilted ridge along with a corresponding high over
eastern Ohio will allow for warm air advection Sunday through
Tuesday bringing temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Max Temps will peak into the mid 50s with lows into the 40s
Tuesday morning.
 The ridge will be short lived as trough will move through Michigan
late Monday through Tuesday. That weather system will bring rain
showers with the heaviest period currently expected late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. There isn`t a ton of moisture with
this system but around a quarter of an inch to a half an inch of
rain is possible. Showers should linger through Tuesday with a
more tumultuous pattern change ahead.

- Colder Weather Ahead

 The warmer rain and fall temps will fall precipitously through
the latter half of next week. There remains some questions on
timing due to position of the upper level flow. However, Temps
will drop to normal by Wednesday and then continue to drop through
Thanksgiving. Max Temps trending around 40 should traverse to the
mid 30s through turkey day. Lows by the end of next week will
have dropped to the 20s.

 So Carpe Diem, as the milder weather will not last long.
Persistent, strong northwest flow should move through the region
late next week which could also bring a chance for snow. To many
questions on forcing, timing etc. to have a good estimate.
However, there is the potential for lake effect late next week
with colder, blustery weather ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mid and high clouds were abundant over the area this evening, and
the mid clouds are on their way out of the area, after affecting
the I-94 terminals. We will see some high clouds persist at all
sites except KMKG. There, we are seeing some clouds between
3000-3500 ft agl coming in off of Lake Michigan.

The clouds at KMKG will be around a good portion of this forecast
period. Can not even rule out some of these clouds going down to
MVFR. Elsewhere, high clouds will continue, with mid clouds moving
back in tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings are likely to drop right at
the end of this forecast period, or more likely just after the
end.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...NJJ