545
FXUS63 KGRR 230800
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
300 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Moving in Monday Night

- Cold with Snow Showers Wednesday and Thursday

- Snow/Mix end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Rain Moving in Monday Night

A southern stream upper low ejecting out of the Southwest U.S.
brings cyclogenesis across the Plains on Monday. The surface low
tracks into Lower Michigan with rain arriving Monday night into
Tuesday. This is quickly followed by a northern stream shortwave
trough amplifying into a closed upper low and full latitude
troughing by Wednesday,

- Cold with Snow Showers Wednesday and Thursday

Colder air wraps in behind the low with 850mb temps falling below
minus 10C on Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Broad cyclonic flow
along with inversion heights near 8 kft will allow snow showers to
develop and these should penetrate far inland given the west-
northwest flow and mean boundary layer winds near 40 mph. Snow
showers should diminish by Friday as heights rise with the upper
trough shifting east. Snow amounts uncertain at this range but it
should be cold enough for snow to accumulate on roads and affect
travel from Wednesday to Thursday night.

- Snow/Mix end of the week

A longwave trough amplifying across the western CONUS phases with
an upper low across Hudson Bay creating a large baroclinic zone
across the central U.S. with an active storm track bringing rounds
of wintry precip to the Great Lakes beginning late in the week.
This could cause travel impacts during the busy travel period next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

The mid level cloud cover that brought sprinkles to the area is
well east of the area already. Some clearing has taken place, with
more clouds around 4k ft streaming in from the NW. Indications are
stronger that low clouds in the MVFR category are likely for the
eastern terminals, including KBTL, KLAN, and KJXN by 12z. These
clouds are then expected to mix out/move out by early afternoon.
We will then have high clouds move through at that time. Winds
from the NW will become a little gusty with gusts of around 20
knots likely. Skies will then clear out, and winds will diminish a
bit by sunset on Sunday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...NJJ