804
FXUS63 KGRR 241127
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
627 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Moving in Tonight

- Cold, Windy, Snow Showers Wednesday and Thursday

- Snow/Mix for the Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Rain Moving in Tonight

A southern stream upper low ejecting out of the Southwest U.S.
brings cyclogenesis across the Plains today. The surface low
tracks into Lower Michigan with rain arriving tonight into
Tuesday. This is quickly followed by a northern stream shortwave
trough amplifying into a closed upper low and full latitude
troughing by Wednesday,

- Cold, Windy, Snow Showers Wednesday and Thursday

Colder air wraps in behind the low with 850mb temps falling below
minus 10C on Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Broad cyclonic flow
along with inversion heights near 8 kft will allow snow showers to
develop and these should penetrate far inland given the west-
northwest flow and mean boundary layer winds near 40 mph. Wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible Wednesday afternoon, especially
adjacent to Lake Michigan.

Snow showers should diminish by Friday as heights rise with the
upper trough shifting east. Snow amounts uncertain at this range
but it should be cold enough for snow to accumulate on roads and
affect travel from Wednesday to Thursday night.

- Snow/Mix for the Weekend

A longwave trough amplifying across the western CONUS phases with
an upper low across Hudson Bay creating a large baroclinic zone
across the central U.S. with an active storm track bringing rounds
of wintry precip to the Great Lakes beginning on Saturday. This
could cause travel impacts during the busy travel period next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will persist into the evening then rain showers
move in after midnight with MVFR conditions and patchy IFR after
06Z. South winds will gust to 20 knots at times from late morning
into late afternoon.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for LMZ846>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno