112
FXUS63 KGRR 191708
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1208 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off and On Rain Chances (20% to 40%) Into Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Off and On Rain Chances (20% to 40%) Into Next Week

Overall mostly dry conditions are expected into next week as we
lack sufficient moisture and lift through most of the forecast
period. Temperatures will also be warming with highs in the 40s
and 50s and mainly in the 30s.

Our once rainy forecast Thursday into Friday continues to trend
downward as most of the lift is focused to the north and south
with the two low pressure systems. As the front moves through
Thursday we have a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain during the
afternoon. Sounding profiles though vary from remaining dry to
more of drizzly look. If more drizzly it could start as early as
Thursday morning within the region of warm air advection off of
Lake Michigan. Friday we may get clipped by the low passing to our
south with best chances (30 percent) along the I-94 corridor.

The weekend looks dry, but we`ll have to watch a shortwave with
associated 850 mb low level jet that may bring enough lift and
moisture for a few showers mainly north of I-96. Otherwise
attention turns to next week with another potential phasing
scenario, however chances are not high (20 percent) as current
solutions keep us in between the northern and southern systems for
Monday into Tuesday with only a few members bringing better
moisture and lift over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

AZO and BTL will see intermittent VFR/MVFR over the next few hours
as the clearing line shifts before MVFR ceilings move completely
over the terminals. The other terminals will remain VFR through
this afternoon and evening before MVFR ceilings arrive after
04-06z. Ceilings at all terminals are likely to fall below 2kft
with a period of IFR likely at AZO, BTL, and maybe JXN. These
conditions will continue through the rest of the TAF period.
Otherwise, expect east to northeast winds around 5 knots today
veering to southerly by Thursday morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Thomas