911
FXUS63 KGRR 021717
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1217 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy lake effect snow diminishes along lakeshore this morning

- Light snow Wednesday, then colder

- Periodic light snow through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Heavy lake effect snow diminishes along lakeshore this morning

Radar shows a band of heavy snow extending from mid lake NNE
to northern Oceana county. This band has been responsible for
producing a half to a foot of snow during the past 15 hrs or so.
H8 omega progs indicate this band will move onshore across Ottawa,
Muskegon, Oceana counties around 4 am and then slowly dissipate.
Indeed, radar is beginning to show the eastward movement of the
band. We`ll keep the winter headlines going through 7 am as the
band moves onshore and produces a few more inches of snow.

Farther south, light snow is winding down across the southern cwa
as the upper trough axis moves east across the cwa. We`re
generally looking at a mostly cloudy day, but a few peeks of sun
are possible too as ridging noses into the Great Lakes.

- Light snow Wednesday, then colder

Another strong cold front will move across the cwa Wednesday.
Light snow will accompany the front. However, most
accumulations...1-2 inches...will be west of US-131 where the lake
will add some influence. Around a half inch of snow is expected
east of US-131.

A quick shot of arctic air will follow the front and h8
temperatures will from -8c to -18c by Thursday morning. This will
result in highs Thursday and Friday only in the lower to mid 20s.

Boundary layer RH progs show dry air (40-50 percent) moving over
the lake Thursday which will limit lake effect snow potential.

- Periodic light snow through the weekend

A series of short waves are progd to move through the long wave
upper trough resulting in cold air remaining entrenched over the
Great Lakes and each wave bringing the chance of light snow. The
first wave moves through Friday afternoon/night producing a 70
percent chance of snow over the western half of the cwa.

Another cold front/short wave combination follows on Saturday
resulting in a 40-50 percent chance of snow west of US-131
Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Light snow will continue at GRR and MKG over the next few hours.
Leaning on the HRDPS which handles these kind of events well,
mostly MVFR visbys are likely between 18-22z. Otherwise,
widespread MVFR cigs persist through early Wednesday morning, with
the potential for intermittent IFR at AZO/BTL over the next few
hours. Then, guidance favors a period of VFR conditions at AZO,
BTL, LAN, and JXN, before widespread MVFR cigs return late
Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Light snow also arrives,
with the exception of LAN/JXN who hold off until after the TAF
period. Winds increase tonight and especially Wednesday from the
WSW with gusts around 20 knots by the end of the TAF window. We
also approach LLWS criteria at all terminals except MKG as we
decouple for a few hours on either side of 12z.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas