935
FXUS62 KGSP 292345
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal high temperatures stick around through next week. Dry
and cold high pressure departs tonight with a cold front bringing
precipitation chances Sunday. Drier conditions develop briefly
Monday before a low pressure system from the Gulf brings better
precipitation chances Monday night and Tuesday. Dry high pressure
returns Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet and cool through late this evening.

2) Wintry mix develops in spots over the mountains late tonight,
with isolated light ice accumulations possible.

3) Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include the nrn mountain
zones and the area along the Blue Ridge Escarpment north of I-40
in McDowell, Burke, and Caldwell counties beginning 1 AM Sunday.

The storm system responsible for all the wintry weather over the
Midwest/Great Lakes this evening will be pushing a cold front toward
our region from the west. Precip will stay west of the mtns through
at least midnight. Almost always a tricky forecast when precip onset
is expected to occur in the pre-dawn hours. There remains a time
discrepancy between most of the synoptic scale models and the CAMs,
with the CAMs developing precip a few hours earlier along the TN
border then expanding/moving eastward through early Sunday morning.
In this situation, I`m inclined to follow along more with the timing
of the CAMs, so the NBM was blended with the CAMs during the
critical hours around dawn. That also goes for the Temps around
daybreak. The earlier onset of precip should allow for some
evaporative cooling initially, which should allow for pockets of 32F-
or-less temps to persist in some locations over the mtns. The effect
of these changes to the NBM is to wipe out a model trend that would
suggest such a low threat of icing that our Advisory would be
overdone. In these situations, we often see a bit more coverage of a
light wintry mix than what would otherwise be indicated, so I prefer
to err more on the side of caution with a bit greater coverage of
light freezing rain potential along the Escarpment north of I-40
where cold air would be trapped the longest into the middle part of
Sunday morning. Thus, the Advisory was expanded to include all the
nrn mountain zones and adjacent foothill/mtn zones. Timing still
looks ok. Warm advection should be able to overwhelm and change all
precip to light rain by mid-morning. If we have to extend we can do
that early Sunday morning.

The remainder of Sunday looks cloudy with light precip expanding
eastward across the remainder of the fcst area. The cold front
should start the day far enough to the west that we should get
plenty of time on the warm advection side of the boundary, with the
front not crossing the region until mid/late afternoon. That should
allow temps to actually be a few degrees warmer than today in spite
of the clouds and light precip through the morning, though still
more than 5 degrees on the cool side of normal. Precip should end
from the west with the frontal passage. Not really much of a wind
shift behind the front initially, so the upslope precip chances
on the TN border behind the front are poor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1115 AM EST Saturday:

Key message: Widespread precipitation is expected Monday night into
Tuesday. A light wintry mix and ice accumulations remain likely
in portions of the mountains and northern NC foothills Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

Atop developing CAD regime, categorical pcpn cvrg will overspread
the cwfa Monday night ahead of approaching Miller type A low
pressure. Based on the recent speedier model trends it is probable
that SW sections of the region will see light pcpn onset before
sunset. Otherwise, the sensible wx for Monday will feature
thickening clouds as a chilly NE wind caps maximum temperatures
around 10 deg F below the December 1st climo.  The 29/12z model
blend/ensemble pcpn type probabilities continue to favor frza as
being the main p-type concern, mainly limited to the northern Blue
Ridge.  At this point, feel like there is a decent probability that
advisory level ice accumulations will occur in NW NC during the pre-
dawn hours Tuesday Still expecting rapid dry slot encroachment
Tuesday afternoon quickly diminishing pcpn chances, expect for the
NC mountains where a period of wrap-around along with caa maintains
shower chances into the evening along with Tennessee border snow
shower probabilities.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Saturday:

Key message 1: Dry weather and moderating temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

Beneath a quasi-zonal upper pattern, weak sfc ridge axis translates
across the cwfa. Sunshine on Wednesday will give way to a little
more clouds on Thursday as channeled energy ejects our direction
from the southern plains.  Moderating temperatures through the
period will promote values getting back close to climo on Thursday.

Key message 2: Cool and unsettled weather returns for Friday and
Saturday.

Within the broad CONUS l/wv trough, energy is progged to dive SE
through the plains on Friday with the associated jet energy aiding
to blossom pcpn northward from the gulf coast before ejecting
eastward on Saturday.  Within this fast moving pattern, considerable
uncertainty exists with respect to timing and extent of said pcpn
with a large portion of the extended guidance advertising a chilly
and mainly light rainy period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Seeing mostly BKN to OVC VFR cirrus tracking
over the terminals as of 00Z. VFR should linger through the early
overnight hours. Conditions will gradually deteriorate during the
late overnight hours into Sunday morning ahead of an approaching
cold front. Cigs will gradually lower overnight becoming MVFR
roughly around daybreak. MVFR cigs should stick around through the
early evening hours but cigs may occasionally lift to VFR levels at
times. VFR cigs should return for all terminals by 22-23Z. -RA
chances will also increase ahead of the front so have PROB30s across
the terminals to account for this. -RA may linger past the PROB30
end times but confidence is low. If any vsbys are reduced during the
period it will be from -RA. KHKY should see calm to light and VRB
winds linger through Sunday morning before toggling more S/SW Sunday
afternoon/evening. KAVL will see SE winds linger through the mid-
morning hours, toggling more S/SW late Sunday morning into early
Sunday afternoon before turning NW by late Sunday afternoon. Winds
at KCLT will also start out SE going VRB overnight before picking up
out of the SW Sunday afternoon, then NW Sunday evening. Winds across
the SC terminals will start out E`ly, toggling more NE overnight
into daybreak Sunday before turning SW Sunday afternoon. No gusts
are expected across the terminals through the period.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions briefly return Sunday night into
Monday. Another round of rain and restrictions are expected Tuesday
before dry and mainly VFR conditions return Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...AR/PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR