373
FXUS62 KGSP 031444
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
944 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in chilly and dry conditions today and
likely Thursday. Conditions turn even colder Friday as precipitation
returns to the area, with a wintry mix likely in portions of
western North Carolina. Chances for precipitation linger through
the weekend, with warmer but still below-normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Pesky stratus deck has developed across the southern half of
the area and will linger into the afternoon.

2) Dry and chilly weather continues today through tonight.

Stratocu continues to expand northward, but looks rather thin
on visible sat imagery, while low stratus is slow to burn off in
the mountain valleys. Morning soundings show very strong inversion
atop the cloud layer. And with weak December insolation, the clouds
will be slow to mix out, despite being so thin. So the forecast was
updated with the latest CONSShort, which is doing a decent job on
the sky cover. Still expect some breakage in the clouds by mid-aftn,
but it`s possible some areas will stay cloudy basically all day. Max
temps were adjusted down slightly due to the increased cloud
cover.

Otherwise...high pressure will track from the Ohio and TN Valleys to
the Carolinas by early evening. High temperatures will only climb
into the upper 40s across most of the area. Guidance still shows
the low clouds largely mixing out tonight, but a light southerly
wind should develop by evening and continue into the overnight
hours while high cirrus begins streaming into the region after
sunset. This should keep lows up to a category or two warmer on
Thursday morning than they were this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of midnight Wednesday morning:

Key message: Precipitation chances increase Thursday night and peak
Friday, with temperatures supporting a chance of light snow and/or
freezing rain in a portion of the area.

Cold front will be associated with shortwave moving across the
eastern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley Thursday. The shortwave
appears too weak to budge the flat ridge over the Caribbean and
subtropical Atlantic, and the front practically stalls over NC by
afternoon. High altitude cloud cover is shown to spread over the
area. Midlevel speed max will promote stronger downslope flow.  With
that and some airmass modification temperatures should rebound a few
degrees east of the mountains, despite mid to high altitude clouds
brought by the front. Slight CAA and earlier arrival of clouds
suggests slightly lower temps over the mountains compared to Wed.

The sfc high behind the front expands east out of the mid-MS Valley
which should lead to the front oozing southward across GA/SC Thu
night. A previously existing baroclinic zone in the lower MS Valley
will activate ahead of another southern-stream shortwave. Moist WAA
associated with that development is responsible for light QPF
response over GA/SC which translates to slight-chance (around 20%)
PoPs in our southern zones Thu afternoon. Surface temp and wet-bulb
support that activity being all rain at that time, if it materializes
that early.

Models have come into better agreement that the sfc high will shift
eastward and be in position for in-situ CAD as the baroclinic zone
amplifies Thu night and PoPs increase from SW to NE after midnight
Friday morning. Prog soundings are largely supportive of snow at
onset over high elevations of the SW NC mountains and almost all
mountain/Escarpment locations northeast of the French Broad. That
could be a result of guidance consensus bringing the parent high in
faster and more strongly than earlier runs. Surface temps/wet-bulbs
look to be the main factor in p-type in this early stage of the
event, with wet-bulb profiles indicating a weaker or even nonexistent
warm nose compared to the past two CAD events we just had. Though NBM
bias corrections seem to have picked up on the wedge (values being
close to the 75th-90th NBM percentile), blended in raw model
temps/dewpoints which performed well in last weekend`s CAD to try to
nail the p-type trends more closely. Wet-bulb temp looks likely to be
slightly above freezing in the NW NC Piedmont (areas near/north of
I-40) and in some of the FB Valley. Much of those areas are forecast
to have a rain-snow mix with accumulation thus limited to only a few
tenths of an inch. Some sleet and/or freezing rain may develop Friday
morning as warm nose builds with increasing WAA over the wedge; ice
accums mainly result along the usual areas of the eastern Escarpment.
Most areas that see wintry precip in the morning change over to all
rain by noon or so, but ice could accumulate in the coldest northern
Escarpment areas into late day.

Friday should be an exceptionally cold day with the eastern NC
foothills and I-40 corridor not likely making it out of the 30s, and
maxes in the lower 40s even in the warmest areas such as the Little
TN Valley and south of I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wed:

Key message 1: Confidence remains low for Friday night through
Sunday due to model differences in the handling of the stalled
front.

Still expect that a Miller A-type coastal low will spin up Friday
afternoon along the stalled front and push out into the Atlantic
overnight, following the primary jet streak. Models largely show a
secondary speed max developing at 250mb over the Ozarks and lower
OH Valley Fri night which reactivates the inland portion of the
front, producing more QPF response mainly south of I-20.  The GFS
and NAM solutions prolong precip in our CWA into Friday night
as a result of this process. Such occurrence likely would keep a
shallow wedge in place even as the parent high becomes increasingly
distant. 02/12z EC and 03/00z GDPS begin CAD erosion. A few members
of the various global ensembles do support the wetter Friday night
solution over some or all of the CWA. Hence low PoPs persist thru
Saturday morning and since temps dip below freezing in some of our
northern zones, some of that precip falls out of the process as
freezing rain. More likely, by the time temps fall below freezing,
precip will have tapered off. Most models support a lull then and
some or all of the daytime hours Saturday; temps will bounce back
to the upper 40s to near 50 but that is still several below normal.

Height falls are progged to continue Saturday in the southern
Plains, and with a boundary still stalled north of the Gulf Coast,
no surprise the GFS/EC/GDPS all depict another activation and PoPs
spreading in from the south Saturday night or Sunday. Still seeing
spread among their ensemble members as to whether precip results
this far north, and also onset timing is basically all over the
place in that period. Surface high pressure is not supportive of
another CAD wedge, but it is not terribly likely that the first
wedge will erode on Saturday. So, a few colder areas in our north
could see freezing rain or sleet with the second round, but with
more limited extent than the earlier events.

Key message 2: Precip could redevelop late Sunday thru early
Monday as a shortwave passes. Light snow is possible in portions
of the mountains.

Most models depict the Plains shortwave finally reaching the
southern Appalachians Sunday night. Multiple models show coastal
cyclogenesis occuring yet again along the stalled front, though this
time probably distant enough that we would not see precip via the
low, only NW flow activity near the TN border. The GFS however is
depicting a deeper wave which spins up a low over AL/GA and produces
widespread precip over the CWA Monday, which turns to snow over
almost all the CWA before ending Mon evening. PoPs increase to a
mentionable 20-30% value over all zones early Monday as a nod to
a GFS-like solution, though with the current temp trends snow only
results in the mountains and northern foothills. A clipper follows
Tue night which bears a slight chance of actual NW flow snow to
the mountains at that time. Temps remain below normal thru Day 7
with the coldest night likely Monday night, when lows are mostly
in the mid-upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR everywhere this morning and should
stay that way through the new 12z TAF period, except for some
MVFR cigs around KAND thru around 18z. Otherwise...expect
light N winds through the period with sct to bkn low-VFR
stratocu into the aftn. Guidance has the low clouds completely
mix out by early evening. Then tonight, an increase in cirrus
appears likely, but will be of little operational significance.
Some mid-level cloud cover may develop across the area during
the first part of Thursday. Air mass looks too dry for fog
development.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Thursday afternoon.
Rain chances return Thursday night and into the weekend, along
with possible associated flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCW
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...ARK