879
FXUS62 KGSP 081404
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
904 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing upper level disturbance will bring some light
precipitation to the region today. High pressure will move in from
the west through the middle part of the week. A series of two cold
fronts will move across the region during the latter half of the
week, ultimately bringing much cooler temperatures by the end of
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM EST Monday...

Key Message 1: A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Avery
County as well as elevations above 3,500 feet in Yancey and Mitchell
Counties until 1 AM Tuesday.

With temperatures near or below freezing above 3,500 ft in the NC
mountains, snow will continue this morning. Still expect snow
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches above 3,500 feet across the northern
mountains with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches possible across
the highest peaks. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for Avery County as well as elevations above 3,500 ft in Yancey and
Mitchell Counties until 1 AM Tuesday. The mountain valleys in
Mitchell and Yancey Counties could see anywhere from a dusting to an
inch of snow this morning/afternoon. Elevations above 3,500 ft in
the southern/central NC mountains will get some snow, but it should
remain below Advisory criteria. However, locations in the Smokies
along the NC/TN border could see totals from 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts in isolated locations mostly above 3500 ft.

Key Message 2: A cold rain is expected elsewhere although some sleet
or snow may mix in at times today, mainly across the North Carolina
foothills and Piedmont.

Temperatures will be mostly above freezing across the rest of the
mountain valleys and areas east of the mountains, so mainly a cold
rain is expected for these locations. However, some light snow may
blow down the valleys and/or some wet-bulbing may occur east of the
mountains (mainly in the NC foothills/Piedmont along and north of I-
40) which could allow some brief snow/sleet to mix in with rain at
times. It is not entirely out of the question for wet-bulbing to
occur south of I-40 in the NC foothills/Piedmont as some of the CAMs
continue to depict this scenario. However, with the cold air chasing
the moisture east of the mountains, confidence on snow making it
that far south remains low at this time. Regardless, no significant
snow accumulations are expected east of the mtns if wet-bulbing does
occur. With the persistent low cloud cover and precip today, highs
should remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal across most of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Breezy winds on Wednesday, especially over the ridgetops.

2) Some upslope snow showers possible along the TN border Wednesday
night.

As of 1233 AM EST Monday: Not much change overall for the middle
part of the week, which should be the relatively quiet part of
the upcoming week. We will start out Tuesday with a cold high
pressure air mass over the region. Temps should be about ten
degrees below normal with variable clouds. But, the sfc high is
still expected to move offshore Tuesday night followed by a nrn
stream clipper moving over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Still
looking at breezy conditions on Wednesday as strong SW flow aloft
ahead of the approaching short wave traverses the region during
peak heating. The GFS shows the axis of a 40-50kt low level jet
moving overhead in the afternoon, for example, and model fcst
soundings show mixing well up above that layer. This suggests
that momentum transfer could ultimately be sufficient to bring
Advisory-level gusts down to the sfc over the mtns, especially
the ridgetops. Thus, the model blend is more likely than not to
be underdone with the wind gust potential. Fortunately, the WSW
flow will help keep the RH in check, so Fire Wx is not as great a
concern as it could be. Temps should rebound close to normal. After
the short wave passes late in the day, the majority of the guidance
shows some low level RH moving in from the WNW into the overnight
period. Looks like a quick shot of NW Flow potential, though,
with the better and deeper moisture moving past to the north. We
will carry a small chance of snow showers on the TN border and a
small accumulation in some spots. Lows will also be close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Low confidence in wintry precip near the TN border associated
with period of northwest flow late in the week.

2) A potential colder period next weekend with temperatures running
around 15 degrees below normal.

As of 1247 AM EST Monday: The model guidance has gradually trended
toward a drier scenario for the late part of the week. After an
initial boundary crosses the region, the bulk of Thursday looks
fairly quiet with the upper trof axis overhead and weak sfc high
pressure moving through. This will not be the boundary we want
to tell you about. The brisk WNW flow aloft through Thursday
and Friday will serve to keep temps merely on the order of five
degrees below normal east of the mtns. There could be periodic
surges of low level moisture Thursday night through Friday night
that could bring brief periods of upslope snow shower activity to
the TN border, but chances look minimal as some of the guidance
is moisture-starved. Thus, confidence is low for any precip, but
confidence is going up that areas outside the mtns will remain
dry through the medium range. Still looks like a more significant
cold front will ultimately move through over the first part
of the weekend, ushering in a more arctic air mass for Sunday
into Monday. The pattern looks like typical dead-of-winter-type
stuff. That spells temps running around fifteen degrees below
normal with highs in the low/mid 40s even with full sun.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect IFR to periods of LIFR cigs to
persist over the fcst area thru tonight with some amount of sct
early Tuesday. Reduced visby will also be possible thru much of
today, mostly in the MVFR range. An area of light rain is curren-
tly moving over the our area from the west, but most of it should
be east of our area by mid to late morning. Any lingering precip
chances are handled with PROB30s. The latest guidance continues
to suggest that the back edge of the precip may change over to a
mix of RA/SN or all SN in the NW Piedmont of NC. Confidence remains
high enough to keep a PROB30 at KHKY for -RASN into the early aftn.
Some guidance even has a changeover as far south as KCLT. If this
does happen, it would be occurring around midday with temps in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. So the risk of impacts is low, but not zero.
Otherwise, precip should taper off by the early afternoon outside
of the mtns. Some of the latest guidance has cigs improving to MVFR
by the late afternoon, but based on the overall trends, I think it`s
more likely that most terminals will remain IFR thru this evening.
Winds are expected to pick up out of the NE later this morning.

Outlook: Drying high pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. NW
flow precip may develop along the NC/TN border Wednesday night
into Thursday but dry conditions should linger elsewhere.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT