Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
211 FXUS62 KGSP 151758 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 158 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions continue through today as temperatures remain above normal. A dry backdoor cold front moves through the area Thursday and will bring slight relief to temperatures before warming again by the weekend. Another cold front will approach the area by Sunday and bring the next chance of rain for portions of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: An omega blocking pattern emerges across most of the CONUS before shifting eastward by the end of the near term. For the CWA, the ridge moves overhead and keeps dry weather locked in place. At the surface, high pressure over the Midwest slides east and brings an unexcited backdoor cold front through the area tonight. This advects drier air into the region, lowering temperatures a tick especially across the NC Piedmont. No precipitation is expected through the near term as subsidence aloft hinders rainfall. As for any fire weather concerns, drier air for Thursday drops RH values into the 30-40% range and winds remain relatively light, with a few low-end gusts possible in the NC Piedmont. Temperatures today approach the low 80s outside the mountains and mid 70s for tomorrow. No frost concerns at this time as temps remain warm tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 128 PM EDT Wednesday: Upper ridge axis will be in the midst of propagating towards the Eastern Seaboard through the period and situates atop the area by Saturday. At the same time, a potent upper trough will be digging across the northwestern CONUS and should set up shop over the north-central CONUS by the very end of the short-term, which helps to gradually breakdown the upper ridge. In turn, surface high remains in control as it parks over the Eastern Seaboard through the period, while gradually shifting offshore by Saturday afternoon. Expect the full affects of the backdoor cold front from the near-term to settle Thursday night into Friday as temperatures trend cooler compared to earlier in the week. Overnight lows on Thursday will be ~5 degrees below normal thanks to good radiational cooling conditions. High pressure in total control Friday will lead to mostly clear skies and afternoon highs at or slightly below normal. Uptick in thicknesses with the aforementioned upper ridge will help temperatures rebound some with overnight lows Friday a few ticks below normal. Deep insolation from mostly sunny skies and warmer thicknesses in place will send afternoon highs on Saturday to be ~5 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 156 PM EDT Wednesday: Digging upper trough over the north-central CONUS on Saturday will begin to take on a negative tilt as it cross the Upper- and Mid-MS Valley Sunday morning. An attendant cold front will approach the region as well in response. With the ridge in place and only weak moisture advection ahead of the front, not much is going for the overall environment ahead of the front and will have to overcome a dry antecedent airmass. Factor in that the upper jet and associated forcing for ascent lifts north of the area, and the actual frontal band of convection will struggle to be maintained once it crosses into the CWFA Sunday morning through Sunday evening, especially once this band slips east of the mountains. Despite 60-70 kts of deep layer shear, LREF probabilities give the area ~20%-30% chance of more than 100 J/kg of SBCAPE Sunday afternoon and evening when the frontal band arrives, with the highest probabilities being in the Smokies. This brings in very low confidence for any severe threat Sunday, with not much in the way of QPF response either, especially outside of the mountains. The only deterministic model that shows any concern or heavier QPF response is the ECMWF as it digs the upper trough further south, helping to increase the overall forcing. Otherwise, the trailing cold front loses its grip for any organized frontal bands once it slips east of the NC/TN border on Sunday. General consensus behind the front is another dry airmass that will quickly modify Monday into Tuesday as there is a lack of true CAA following the fropa later Sunday into early Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal Saturday night and Sunday, cooling off to slightly below normal values Sunday night through Monday night behind the front, and rebounding once again through the end of the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions continue to prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains parked over the area. Skies should remain SKC with a few high level clouds possible. No vsby/cig restrictions anticipated as mountain valley fog should stay away from KAVL tonight. Winds are VRB through most of the TAF period, but should prevail N/NE. A few low-end gusts are possible Thursday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Outlook: VFR conditions to persist through most of the weekend, except for the potential for mountain valley fog and/or low stratus each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAC NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CAC LONG TERM...CAC AVIATION...CP