990
FXUS62 KGSP 061810
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
110 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure moves in through Sunday before precipitation
chances increase late Sunday night and Monday. Dry conditions return
by midweek with normal temperatures. A cold front should arrive late
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message 1: Below highs return as light rain chances skirt the
southeastern fringe of the forecast area through late this afternoon
while cloud cover gradually decreases from west to east.

Weak upper troughing will track over the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia late this afternoon into early this evening. At
the sfc, dry high pressure will gradually build in from the west-
southwest. This will allow cloud cover to gradually decrease from
west to east as well as keep the bulk of rain shunted south and east
of the forecast area. However, light rain and/or drizzle may still
develop through the mid-afternoon hours across the southern SC
Upstate and portions of northeast Georgia south of I-85. NBM PoPs
appear to handle this potential well with only chance PoPs in place
across these zones. With cloud cover in no real hurry to erode
today, highs will end up ~5-10 degrees below normal. Temps this
afternoon will only reach into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the
mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Higher elevations will
see highs range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Key Message 2: Cold night ahead despite increasing cloud cover and
the return of patchy dense fog east of the mountains.

Dry high pressure will continue building into the region while the
upper trough pushes east of the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia by late this evening. This will allow calm winds to develop
overnight. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening into
tonight, especially east of the mountains. Despite the cloud cover,
it will be a cold night with temps falling near to below freezing
across the entire forecast area. Another round of dense fog will
develop tonight into daybreak Monday thanks to the calm winds and
lingering low-level moisture. Freezing fog looks to develop across
the NC foothills and the NC Piedmont (north of I-85) overnight into
early Sunday morning as these are the areas that are most likely to
see dense fog overlap with freezing temperatures.

Key Message 3: Fog lifts by mid-morning Sunday with dry and warmer
(but still below normal) conditions expected as cloud cover sticks
around.

Dense fog will linger through the early morning hours on Sunday
before gradually lifting by mid-morning. Freezing fog across the NC
foothills and the NC Piedmont (north of I-85) will no longer be a
concern once temps rise above freezing. The sfc high will be
overhead the Carolinas on Sunday allowing drier and warmer
conditions to develop. However, highs will still end up ~4-7 degrees
below normal thanks to cloud cover sticking around. Temps Sunday
afternoon will reach into the upper 40s to mid 50s east of the
mountains and across the mountain valleys. Higher elevations will
see highs range from the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Light snow possible across portions of the mountains Sunday night
into Monday, with cold rain elsewhere.

2) Dry conditions return Tuesday with below normal temperatures.

As of 1205 PM EST Saturday: West of the CWA, a shortwave makes a run
for the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance for
precipitation. Guidance shows colder air to the north working its
way down into the southeast from a weak surface high. Guidance is
divided on precip except for the GFS, which paints a wider swath of
precip. One factor limiting this system is forcing. There isn`t much
across the area and even the better DPVA is further south. Without
the forcing component, rain chances look to be lower. Additionally,
colder air looks to arrive in the mountains in time for the
shortwave to come through. However, should the shortwave slow down,
this could increase the probability of some snow, mainly across the
mountains. Currently, there is about a 70-80% chance that the
highest elevations in the mountains could see at least 0.01 inch of
snow. There is also about a 20-30% chance for a few isolated areas
at the higher spots to see 2 inches of snow or more. Timing for this
is late Sunday night into Monday, but this is still a developing
system and things will change. Outside the mountains, the colder air
doesn`t look to arrive in time for the shortwave to cross, keeping
temps mostly above freezing and precip type as mainly rain. There
could be a brief mix of snow outside the mountains, especially in
the NC Piedmont IF the cold air makes it in time AND the wet bulb
cools to near/at freezing. Cannot rule it out, but accumulations are
not expected at this time outside the mountains. Confidence in this
system remains medium that the mountains could see 0.01-2 inches of
snow, which is again highly dependent on the timing of the colder
air and shortwave. Will continue to monitor. After the colder air
mass arrives, a weak surface high sets up, keeping the CWA dry on
Tuesday. Due to anticipated NE surface winds, temperatures look to
dip well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Quiet through mid-week with a warming trend back to normal
temperatures.

2) Breezy Wednesday, especially across the mountains.

3) A potential cold front late Thursday or Friday could bring cooler
temps and another chance of precipitation.

As of 1210 PM EST Saturday: From Tuesday night through at least
Thursday, the weather remains quieter. By midweek, a strong area of
low pressure churns across the Great Lakes region, bringing a tight
pressure gradient southward toward the region. A brief increase of
PoP chances (15-30%) over the mountains Wednesday night.
Additionally, guidance has wind speeds increasing Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A this time, there is about a 30-40% chance of wind
gusts greater than 30 mph at the higher elevations of the mountains.
This will likely change depending on how far south the low dips. If
it drops further south, the winds are likely to increase. Toward the
Thursday/Friday timeframe, there is a continued hint in guidance of
another potential cold front with precipitation chances increasing.
Current guidance brings this front in much drier than previous runs
and signals at much colder temperatures. So far, guidance is
trending more toward a drier front with reduced precip chances.
Again, it`s too far out on the horizon to gather much of the
details. As for temperatures, expect daily highs to be near normal
from mid-week onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry conditions are expected across
the terminals through the 18Z TAF period. Conditions will continue
to gradually improve throughout this afternoon, with VFR returning
by mid to late afternoon. However, KCLT may see restrictions linger
a bit longer, lifting by early this evening. VFR conditions will not
last long before low cigs and dense fog return late this evening
into early Sunday morning, mainly east of the mountains. However,
KAVL could see some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys develop around daybreak
Sunday. CIGs and vsbys east of the mountains should drop back down
to LIFR to VLIFR overnight, lingering through ~14-16Z Sunday. Opted
to hold off on VLIFR restrictions for now to see if guidance remains
consistent regrading this potential. Freezing fog will be a concern
at KHKY as temps will fall below freezing from ~10Z-14Z so have a
TEMPO to account for FZFG. Conditions will once again be slow to
improve throughout Sunday so leaned more on the pessimistic side of
guidance. Wind direction will be NW at KAVL and WSW/SW east of the
mountains the rest of today. Winds will go calm this evening into
daybreak Sunday. Winds at KAVL will pick up out of the SE Sunday
morning while winds east of the mountains pick up out of the E late
Sunday morning. Winds east of the mountains will gradually turn more
SE Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: A storm system will bring precip and restrictions Sunday
night into Monday. Dry high pressure is expected to spread back over
the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR