178
FXUS62 KGSP 100622
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic Airmass builds into the region behind a departing cold
front through Tuesday, bringing cold temperatures and gusty winds to
the entire forecast area, as well as the first significant northwest
flow snow event along the North Carolina/Tennessee border through
tonight. Temperatures rebound Wednesday and beyond with drier
conditions expected the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Monday: The NW flow snow event has begun, with the kmrx
radar showing plenty of returns along the TN/NC border. Snowfall
amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible thru daybreak this morning
above 3500 ft, with locally higher amounts in the ridgetops of the
Smokies. Outside the mountains, skies are clearing out or already
clear, with breezy W to NW winds and falling temps.

Later this morning, there looks to be a lull in the NW flow
snow shower activity, as potent shortwave energy dives thru the
large upper trough axis over the Ohio Valley. This will back the
low-level flow, resulting in less upslope component. Snow showers
should ramp up again this aftn and peak in coverage and intensity
this evening, with the passage of a strong vort max across the
CWFA. This wave will help produce some high-based cu east of the
mountains as well. Given the impressive NW flow setup and strong
forcing, snowfall totals have been bumped up a bit, especially in
the valleys near the TN border. Based on this, the Winter Weather
Advisory will now be headlined include the entire zones along the
TN border, rather than just elevation-dependent. High snow/liquid
ratios and convective snowfall rates could produce locally heavy
snow along the TN border. Parts of the Smokies could see over a foot
of snow (where the high-elevation Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect. Other portions of the mountains outside the usual NW flow
areas could see some snow accums as well. But given the short-lived
nature of the setup, impacts are not expected to be high enough
to warrant expanding the advisory. However, an HWO mention will be
added, and a Special Weather Statement may be needed later. Also,
a few snow showers may break containment in the late aftn-early
evening hours, but exactly where those end up is too low to put in
the forecast. For example, the 00z HRRR has some snow showers track
across Macon to Oconee and Anderson counties, while the NAMnest
favors the eastern Upstate and southern Charlotte metro area. If any
do develop, no significant impacts area expected. The one area the
CAMs do agree on is the NW Piedmont along/east of I-77 into central
NC getting a quick shot of snow showers later this evening. Again,
the activity will be so quick, little to no accum is expected. But
did add a chc PoP there for a couple hours mid to late evening.

The other big story today is the cold air. Strong CAA will continue
to bring temps down across the area. Highs will stay below freezing
for all but the lowest mountain valleys, while topping out in
the lower to mid 40s in the Piedmont. Gusty W to NW winds will
make it feel even colder, despite mostly sunny skies outside the
mountains. While winds are forecast to be sub-Advisory, wind chill
values in the single digits or lower are expected across the high
elevations of the mountains from late tonight through the end of
the period, with sub-zero wind chills expected to be confined to
elevations above 5000 feet or so. The coldest night of the season
is on tap tonight, as continued CAA will bring temps down into the
teens across the mountains and lower to mid 20s east. Confidence
is high on a hard freeze for all of the area. So the Freeze Watch
was upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Breezy Winds and Low Humidity May Lead to Low-End Fire Weather
Concerns

2) Chilly, Well Below Normal Highs Expected Tuesday with Warmer,
Near Normal Highs Returning Wednesday

3) Dry Conditions Return Area-Wide

Strong, upper cyclonic flow lifts away from the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia early Tuesday, with weaker, upper cyclonic
flow expected for the remainder of the short term. Meanwhile, at the
sfc, dry high pressure builds in from the south/west across the
southeast through the forecast period. Although breezy W/SW winds
are expected each day, gusts will remain below advisory criteria.
With dewpoints lingering in the teens on Tuesday, minimum RH values
will fall near or below 30% across much of the forecast area.
Dewpoints will steadily increase throughout Wednesday, climbing into
the mid 30s and mid 40s by late Wednesday afternoon. This should
allow min RHs to remain above 30% on Wednesday. Thus, breezy winds
combined with low RH may lead to low-end fire wx concerns,
especially on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will end up several degrees
warmer across the mountains and a few degrees warmer east of the
mountains compared to Monday, but will still end up ~15 degrees
below normal. Highs on Wednesday rebound to near normal values, with
temps climbing into the 60s east of the mountains and the upper 50s
to lower 60s across the mountain valleys. Highs across the higher
elevations will rebound into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Lows Tuesday
night will once again fall below freezing across the mountains, as
well as the northern NC foothills and northern NC Piedmont.
Elsewhere, lows will end up near freezing to a few degrees above
freezing. Lows Wednesday night should end up above freezing for most
locations, but elevations above 3,500 ft should still see lows near
or below freezing. No additional frost/freeze products will be
issued this fall/winter with the hard freeze tonight ending the
growing season.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry Weather Persists through the Rest of the Week

2) Warming Trend Continues through Saturday with Slightly Cooler
Highs Possibly Returning Sunday

3) Rain Chances May Return Sunday but Confidence is Low

Dry sfc high pressure remains over the region through at least
Saturday, possibly lingering through Sunday. The latest ECMWF shows
the sfc high pushing east of the CWA Saturday night with moisture
returning ahead of a low pressure system throughout Sunday.
Meanwhile, the latest GFS/Canadian depict sfc high pressure
remaining over the region through Sunday with moisture associated
with the upper low remaining west of the forecast area through 00Z
Monday. With global models not in agreement regarding the return of
rain chances, confidence on NBM chance PoPs remains low for Sunday.
The warming trend continues through Saturday with the possibility of
slightly cooler highs on Sunday, if rain chances do in fact return.
Temps will generally end up above normal through the period, with
the exception of lows Thursday night, which may end up a few degrees
below normal east of the mountains. Lighter winds are generally
expected through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Gusty W to NW wind expected at all TAF sites
today, with VFR conditions. KAVL may have brief MVFR cigs at times
overnight thru the morning, but confidence remains low. Otherwise,
ceilings will remain VFR across the rest of the area. Guidance shows
a surge of snow shower activity in the mountains this evening,
which may result in brief SHSN at KAVL. Will introduce a PROB30
for potential MVFR restrictions. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles
or flurries in the Piedmont this evening, but no impacts expected.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected with gusty winds lingering through
midweek, mainly during the daylight hours. Winds weaken late in
the week, when the potential for early morning mountain valley
fog/low stratus will also increase.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-504-506-508-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-
     048>050-052-058.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ051.
SC...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ008>014-019-104>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ARK