528
FXUS62 KGSP 300600
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
100 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal high temperatures stick around this week. A cold front
brings light precipitation today before drier conditions develop
briefly Monday. A low pressure system from the Gulf brings better
precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday. Dry high pressure
returns Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1249 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Precipitation builds in coverage and intensity through daybreak
ahead of an advancing cold front.

2) Wintry mix develops across the NC mountains for several hours
before dawn, with isolated light ice accumulations expected.

3) Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the northern Blue
Ridge and Blue Ridge Escarpment beginning at 1 AM.

Light radar returns are already visible across the Appalachians,
though recent ACARS data suggests there`s still a remnant dry layer
in place, so it`s questionable how much of this precipitation
is making it to the ground just yet.  More robust radar returns
are visible upstream over the eastern Tennessee Valley...moving
northeastward but making some headway toward the North Carolina
state line.  Think that over the next few hours, as WAA intensifies
on the eastern periphery of a strong LLJ centered over the
Cumberland Plateau, a moist warm nose will develop across the
NC mountains.  Rainfall will continue to moisten the low-levels
during this time, resulting in some diabatic cooling beneath the
warm nose that should bring some of our mountain valleys to below
freezing...especially across the northern Blue Ridge and Blue Ridge
Escarpment.  Many of these zones could imminently see some freezing
drizzle start to develop at light precipitation begins making it
to the ground.  As further evaporative cooling takes place and
the boundary layer moistens, this should evolve into full-fledged
freezing rain.  So, the Winter Weather Advisory in place for Avery,
Yancey, and Mitchell County as well as adjacent zones along the
NC Blue Ridge Escarpment will be allowed to stand.  To a lesser
extent, the same sequence of events is expected south of the French
Broad...across the Great Smoky Mountains and NC Balsams...but more
borderline temps as well as lower QPF overall suggests accumulating
ice will be lighter and more isolated there...so no product will
be issued in favor of just carrying a mention in the HWO.

After daybreak, warming temperatures will rapidly halt freezing
rain, such that an all-rain forecast is warranted by 10 AM,
if not earlier.  By this time, a weak z500 shortwave will be
located just west of the NC-TN state line, with the attendant
cold front located somewhere in the mid/east Tennessee Valley.
Scattered light rainfall will push out into the low terrain as the
front crosses the region through late this afternoon, with drying
taking place from west to east through the day.  By this evening,
the entire forecast area should be dry, apart from some isolated
NW flow showers...though between limited moisture to begin with,
and fairly weak NW winds, there`s barely any signal for that in
the latest hi-res guidance.  CAA behind the front will be weak and
short-lived overnight, with a steady but not-so-strong NW wind and
temperatures dropping back into the mid-20s at higher elevations
and parts of the I-40 corridor, and low- to mid-30s across the
Upstate and Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of midnight Sunday morning:

Key message: Confidence increasing for accumulating wintry precip in
the northern mountains and eastern Escarpment areas, and in very high
elevations of the southwest mountains, Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

Still expecting dry high pressure to migrate east of the Appalachians
Monday and center over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast by late
evening. Stalled front to our south will be reactivated as shortwave
crosses the Mississippi Valley late Monday, leading to onset of
precip from south to north across the area overnight. The longer
range CAMs suggest very light precip could begin as soon as 00z Tue
in our far southwest mountains and Savannah Valley, with moistening
occurring quickly from the top down over the sfc high; precip is
likely to have begun over the western two-thirds of the CWA by
midnight Tuesday.

Cloud cover moving in Monday afternoon should inhibit nocturnal
cooling, but of course precip will induce diabatic cooling and some
snow/sleet could be seen at onset where temps are sufficiently close
to freezing, which should be most of the mountains. High ridges of
the Smokies/Balsams and nearby ranges SW of the French Broad however
do look likely to cool below freezing with the diabatic cooling, and
with the development of the warm nose aloft via WAA ahead of the
approaching system, those areas will transition to freezing rain for
a time. However, the valleys and most populated areas in the SW
mountains look to remain above freezing overnight and wintry
accumulation there is likely to be zero. Rain totals of 1 to 1.5"
with isolated spots of 2" or more are forecast for most of the
Piedmont with the higher amounts in the usual areas south of the
Escarpment near the southern border of NC.

There remains strong consensus for the northern mountains and
foothills (NE of the French Broad) to lock in subfreezing
temperatures for most or all of the night as in-situ CAD develops.
Temps will hover near or just below freezing below the Escarpment
such that accumulating ice/sleet/snow may occur in a few areas as far
south as NE Henderson County (Bearwallow, Bat Cave, etc.) Raw models
do depict many of these areas warming before daybreak and thus the
event may prove short-lived, especially those areas farther south.
Higher elevations look particularly likely to see sfc temps warm
above freezing although profiles would still support snow and perhaps
some sleet in addition to rain. We were especially careful with temp
trends to try to hone in amounts, with the net result being ice/snow
totals that are solidly supportive of a Winter Wx Advisory, although
we need to wait a little closer to onset to incorporate more hi-res
guidance. WWA decision probably will be made Sunday night, but won`t
rule out issuance on day shift today.

Temps look likely to have warmed above freezing by 12z Tue, by which
time PoPs are forecast to be in decline east of the mountains.
Development of CAA Tuesday afternoon should turn precip over to snow
on the higher peaks near the TN border, where light accumulation is
not out of the question late afternoon into evening. Chances fall
below slight-chance by midnight.  Several degrees colder Tue night
versus the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Sun:

Key message 1: Dry weather and moderating temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

Quasi-zonal upper pattern returns briefly Tue night and early Wed
with high pressure migrating across the Southeast. The high is
comparatively weak to the previous two highs. Winds will be light
Wednesday but skies trend clear, and temps rebound slightly. Mid to
upper level flow turns slightly cyclonic Wed afternoon; a weak, dry
cold front looks to arrive by Thu morning. That should introduce some
high altitude cloud cover across the area and upslope clouds and
perhaps a few flurries along the TN border at that time. East of the
mountains, downslope flow will help bring temps almost back to normal
for Thursday afternoon.

Key message 2: Another wintry precip may unfold for part of the area
at some point between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Confidence
remains low.

Details forthcoming.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: KAVL and well as the Upstate terminals
are starting to report some consistent MVFR ceilings, consistent
with steady top-down moistening expected to continue through the
night.  By daybreak, all the TAF sites can expect MVFR ceilings,
while the Little Tennessee Valley may go IFR.  Patchy rainfall is
already visible on radar across the NC mountains, with coverage and
intensity expected to gradually ramp up through the overnight hours.
FZRA is expected to occur at some locations across the high terrain,
especially north of the French Broad Valley, but NO FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  Rather, rain will
remain all-liquid through the overnight, before shifting eastward
after 12z.  For the Upstate terminals, TEMPOs for -RA are carried
after daybreak, with gradually decreasing confidence on additional
rain throughout the day.  At KCLT, went with VCSH/PROB30 for
the majority of the day.  MVFR ceilings are expected to persist
for most/all of this period.  Gradual drying and improvement is
expected by mid- to late-afternoon, with a return to VFR at all
terminals Sunday evening.  Winds will remain light overnight,
picking up out of the WSW during the day, then briefly becoming
WNW by late afternoon/evening, more or less concurrent with the
end of precip and restrictions.

Outlook: VFR conditions should persist through Monday.  Another
round of rain and associated restrictions is expected Tuesday,
before dry and mainly VFR conditions return Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-
     049-050-501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...MPR