295
FXUS62 KGSP 111138
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
638 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure returns to the area today and will control our
weather into the weekend. Another cold front will approach from
the west on Saturday and is expected to sweep across the area early
Sunday, bringing a cold and dry air mass for the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1:25 AM EST Thursday:

Key Message #1: Winds have weakened outside of the mountains, but
remain gusty across the North Carolina mountains and portions of
the NC Foothills and Piedmont.

The cold front has moved to our east over the past few hrs, yet
windy conditions will continue across the mtns overnight and into
the morning, with very windy conditions above 3500 ft. As such, a
Wind Advisory remains in place for elevations above 3500ft, valid
thru 10 AM this morning. Winds have diminished outside of the mtns
but a few sporadic low-end gusts are possible thru the overnight.

Key Message #2: Temperatures cool to below normal tonight.

The onset of aggressive post-frontal CAA will rapidly lower temper-
atures, with most of the mtns falling into the 20s overnight and the
rest of our fcst area seeing lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. The
below-normal temperatures will persist thru the day today, with highs
in the upper 40s across most of our lower terrain, and upper 30s to
lower 40s over the mtns.

Key Message #3: NW flow snow will produce accumulating snowfall along
the NC/TN border region and at higher elevations in the northern NC
mountains.

Rates should taper off as we approach sunrise, with the bulk of any
accumulations having fallen by then. While lower elevations may see
no accumulation, or only a dusting, higher elevations could see 2 to
3 inches thru this morning, and isolated locations across the northern
Blue Ridge could see totals in excess of 4 inches. As such, a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM for Avery County and
for elevations above 3500 ft in Mitchell, Yancey, and Madison Counties.
It will expire at 10 AM along with the Wind Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1236 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message #1: Most locations remain dry outside of a passing
clipper system over the northern mountains on Friday.

Very little change was noted in the new guidance with regard to
weather features on Friday. Model guidance still shows a vort center
moving rapidly down from the WNW on a track that would take it north
of the fcst area, providing maybe a glancing blow to northern Avery
County NC early on Friday. This would be a small chance of snow
showers, if it happens, but for now the snow potential is very low.

Key Message #2: Slightly above normal temperatures on Saturday

There`s also very little change in the thinking for Saturday,
with a relatively flat upper flow and deep layer warm advection
allowing for temps to finally make it back to normal and probably
a few degrees above that. The recent upward trend in temp guidance
for Saturday afternoon seems to have been finally halted with the
new model cycle, though, and high temps have drifted back down by
a degree or two. Still should be a lovely day, though, with lots
of sun and a light SW wind.

Key Message #3: Arctic front still on track for early Sunday

Most indications are that our arctic front passage remains
on schedule for early Sunday, but the precip chances are still
problematic and uncertain. The mid-level forcing that is helping to
drive the front through looks decent enough, but once again we will
lack much in the way of support above and below the mid-levels. The
available moisture is also still questionable, particularly how
moisture return from the Gulf will interact with the old first
boundary that will be stalled across the Deep South. There may
be two broad areas of precip potential Saturday night and Sunday
morning. The first will run mainly to our south along the old
front. Without much in the way of isentropic north of roughly I-20,
it`s going to be tough to get much precip into the fcst area east
of the mtns as some of the guidance is depicting. Think the model
blend might be overdone with its low precip probs in that area early
Sunday. Meanwhile, this doesn`t really look particularly wedgy,
either, so the model blend temps look too cool. Bottom line, think
any chances of wintry precip outside the mtns around daybreak Sunday
are overdone at this point and light rain is preferred, that is, if
anything reached the ground.  The second will be a band of precip
along the arctic front. Indications are that moisture along the
arctic front will have a tough time making it across the mtns on
Saturday night and Sunday. thus limiting most of the chance to the
upslope areas on the TN border. The moisture is such a quick shot
that potential for any accumulation more than an inch is minimal
at best right now. The front should traverse the region during the
morning hours with strong cold advection in its wake. The model
trend is to bring that cold advection off the mtns earlier in the
day, such that most places will see a late morning/midday high,
then temps falling through the afternoon. The new forecast has
highs on the order of five degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 105 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message #1: Cold on Monday with a modifying airmass by Tuesday
and Wednesday

Monday still looks like the coldest day of the season thus far,
with the model guidance trending downward another few degrees
across most of the region, and highs on the order of 15 degrees
below normal in many places. Confidence is fairly good this far out
that sfc high pressure will move in quickly on Monday to make this
happen, though the pattern will become un-stuck by then and systems
are progressive. Confidence drops quickly from Tuesday onward as
to the overall pattern, which is shown to deamplify rapidly on
Tuesday. Indications remain that the sfc high will move offshore
and allow for the air mass to modify quickly, with temps rebounding
noticeably by around ten degrees for afternoon highs. Wednesday
and Thursday are low confidence days. The srn stream wave shown
by previous model runs either barely registers or is trapped down
over the nrn Gulf, suggesting that anything precip will not develop
back into the area on Wednesday. It stands to reason that there
will eventually be some sort of fast-moving disturbance moving
along in the nearly zonal flow in the mid-to-late week period,
so the model blend brings in climo-ish precip probs for the new
Day 7 on Thursday, but this is highly suspect for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions thru the 12z
period at all taf sites. The only exception may be at KAVL, where
high-end MVFR level clouds, associated with the NW flow, have been
moving over the terminal the past few hrs. I included a TEMPO for
bkn 3000 ft cigs for the first couple hrs of the taf period. In
addition, KAVL could see some light precipitation this morning,
but chances are too low to mention in the taf. I also kept a men-
tion of LLWS at KAVL until 15z. Otherwise, the tafs are mostly a
wind fcst. Winds have weakened across the fcst area and the only
site that still carries gusts is KAVL, where they will likely con-
tinue into the early afternoon. At the Upstate terminals, winds
should go from N of W to SW this aftn with light winds expected
later this evening. At KCLT and KHKY, winds will likely remain
just N of W today and then go light and VRB later this evening.
At KAVL, winds will remain NWLY today and go light and VRB this
evening.

Outlook: A clipper type low pressure system could bring some
lower clouds and light precipitation to the northern NC mtns
and Piedmont on Friday. Dry, VFR conditions are expected for
Saturday. Another clipper type low could bring lower clouds
and precip Saturday night into Sunday, along with gusty winds.
Robust, dry high pressure returns late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>064.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ033-048>050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT