775
FXUS62 KGSP 210557
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1257 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and increasingly moist air mass remains in place over our
region through Saturday. Rain chances will be highest over the
mountains as low pressure tries to organize to the west of our area.
Drier but mild high pressure filters in Sunday into early next week.
A cold front crosses the area in the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1102 PM Thursday: A split flow pattern remains in place across
the CONUS with northern stream flow draped along the Canadian border
and an active southern stream extending from Southern California
across the Southern Plains and into the Appalachians. A lead wave
within the southern wave train is lifting across the Southern Plains
and gradually dampening as it eventually phases with a northern
stream trough over the central Appalachians tonight. At the surface,
an elongated baroclinic zone extends from the Ohio Valley into the
Central Plains with a anomalously warm airmass entrenched to the
south. Broad deep-layer southwest flow extends along and south of
the boundary on the poleward side of an upper ridge centered over
the Gulf with an associated plume of deep moisture with PWATs near
1.5" over the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians.
Regional radar analysis depicts several batches of showers across
Tennessee into the mountains and adjacent foothills, which will
continue through the pre-dawn hours as a lead speed max translate
across the area. At least scattered showers will be possible through
the day today with the greatest rain chances across the mountains
and along/north of I-40. Coverage should peak this afternoon with
peak heating, but forcing remains nebulous with the main wave still
off to the west. This will also allow for another day of warm
temperatures despite modest cloud cover with highs climbing back
into the upper 60s to upper 70s. By tonight, the main trough will
pass just north of the area with an upper jet also sliding across
the Appalachians. This will allow for an uptick in coverage of
showers, even outside of the mountains. A few rumbles of thunder
also cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 AM EST Friday: A cold front crosses the area Saturday
with some relatively weak forcing. A warm and moist air mass will be
in place ahead of the front. Some weak instability develops which
may bring some thunder in addition to the showers, but no severe
storms are expected. Moderate QPF is expected along the TN border
with lighter QPF elsewhere. This keeps the flood threat low as well.
Near record highs are expected outside of the mountains but a few
degrees below the records across the mountains.

Dry and cooler high pressure builds in on Sunday. That said, lows
Sat nite and highs Sunday will still be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal. Lows Sunday night fall to around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Friday: A short wave ridge, ahead of an upper low
ejecting out of the Four Corners region, moves into the area Monday.
The low opens and weakens as it rides up the ridge. The weak short
wave crosses the area Tuesday. Another closed low moves into the
Great Lakes Wednesday and to the east on Thursday. A couple of weak
short waves rotate around the low and through a trough extending
south of the low, which move across the area. At the surface, high
pressure over the area Monday moves east Tuesday as a cold front
approaches from the west. A series of waves of low pressure move
along the front as it slowly approaches the area. The front looks to
cross the area Wednesday and moves to the east on Thursday. Precip
chances ramp up late Tue into Tue nite then taper off on Wed. Weak
instability develops which may bring some thunder, but right now, it
doesn`t look like a good high shear/low CAPE set up. The flood
threat also remains low, but hopefully, the current indications of
moderate to isolated heavy rainfall bring some much needed rainfall.
Highs around 10 degrees above normal Monday fall a few degrees
Tuesday and bounce back up a few degrees Wednesday. Lows around 10
degrees above normal Mon nite rise to 15 to 20 degrees above normal
Tue nite. A colder air mass moving in Thu drops lows to near normal
across the mountains and 5 to 10 degrees above normal elsewhere.
Highs fall to around 5 degrees below normal across the mountains and
near normal elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mix of conditions with varying restrictions
is ongoing and expected to continue overnight. Moisture has
increased across the area with a pool of deeper moisture along the I-
77 corridor. Several observations south of KCLT have already seen
reduced visibility and lowering ceilings. At least some degree of
this activity is expected to spread into the CLT area with IFR
ceilings possible. Elsewhere, low ceilings cannot be ruled out
overnight with MVFR common and some patches of IFR. Fog is more
uncertain as persistent high clouds may hamper development. A batch
of showers is also progressing across portions of the area along and
north of I-40. A lull in showers is expected through the day
tomorrow with some scattered redevelopment during the afternoon with
heating. Greater coverage of showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm will be possible overnight into early Saturday morning
with associated restrictions.

Outlook: Drier conditions return early next week, although there
will remain some potential for mountain valley fog/low stratus each
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-21

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 1994     24 1937     60 1931     11 1914
   KCLT      78 1942     38 1937     64 1991     19 1914
                            1879
   KGSP      78 1942     38 1914     64 1991     17 1914



RECORDS FOR 11-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      74 1940     32 1937     57 1934     15 2008
                                                    1937
   KCLT      76 2011     38 1929     65 1883     13 2008
   KGSP      77 2011     38 1937     58 1953     18 1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW
CLIMATE...