705
FXUS62 KGSP 271754
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure builds in through Saturday. A cold front arrives
Sunday with a secondary low pressure system on Tuesday. Most of the
rain is expected Monday night and early Tuesday. Dry high pressure
returns on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1120 AM EST Thanksgiving Day: Some serious cirrus will move
overhead through the afternoon as the upper trough axis moves in
from the west and slips east of the CWFA by this evening. Behind
the trough axis, cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place,
while skies become mostly clear as the center of a continental
surface high moves over the Great Plains overnight and encroaching
the Appalachians by the end of the forecast period. Steady CAA
continues through the period within the post-frontal regime as
afternoon highs for Thanksgiving day and Friday will remain in
the 40s and lower 50s (mainly south/east of I-85), with higher
elevations remaining in the 20s and 30s. Wind gusts will continue
over the high terrain through the rest of the daytime period and
tonight as the pressure gradient remains relatively tight with
the incoming surface high, but should remain below Advisory-level
criteria. This will disrupt otherwise great radiational cooling
conditions as boundary layers will struggle to fully decouple
overnight as a result. Still, strong cold advection will be
entrenched across the region and allow overnight lows to fall
into the 20s with upper 10s in the typical sheltered valleys in
the higher elevations and ridgetops. Dry and cold airmass will be
fully settled in on Friday as anomalously cool thicknesses remain
in place with mostly sunny skies. The pressure gradient loosens,
but dewpoints will tank into the teens with deeper daytime mixing,
which will lead to elevated fire weather concerns with RH values
less than 30% for a good chunk of the area during the afternoon
on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 pm EST Thanksgiving Day: A long wave trough over the
East will be reinforced by an upper speed max that will move from
the Rockies at the start of the period, through the southern
Great Plains on Saturday, before lifting to the eastern Great
Lakes by the end of the period. A frontal zone attending these
height falls will bring the next chance of precipitation to our
forecast area Sat night into Sunday. With a cool/dry air mass
in place in advance of the frontal forcing...and considering the
overnight/early morning timing, wet bulb effects materializing from
falling precip could result in a brief period of in-situ cold air
damming, with some potential for a transient wintry mix...mainly
in the typically coldest locations during CAD regimes. I.e.,
along the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge and in some higher
elevation areas. The relative weakness of the damming setup along
with generally light precip amounts will preclude significant accums
of wintry precip, but a minor freezing rain/advisory event can`t be
ruled out. Otherwise, with deep forcing passing well north of the
area, and weak-at-most moisture flux into the CWA, the pattern
for this event has the appearance of a weakening/dissipating
frontal band progressing across the CWA...such that likely PoPs
are reserved for the western half...with general 30-40% chances
to the east. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well below normal
through the period...by 10 degrees or more.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 pm EST Thanksgiving Day: The upper pattern will remain
active into the extended period, with the global deterministic
models in good agreement that the next region of height falls
will progress from the Great Basin at the start of the period to
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday. A Miller-A synoptic
pattern is expected to evolve across the Southeast Monday
night/Tuesday, with deterministic and ensemble guidance supporting
likely-to-categorical PoPs across the forecast area by Tue morning,
with forcing and moisture profiles indicating a more significant
precip-maker for the CWA (compered with this weekend`s event). With
1025+ mb high pressure forecast to be centered across the Great
Lakes as the forcing and moisture arrive, another round of cold air
damming is likely to develop. Although the supporting surface high
will be stronger and in a more favorable position for CAD...the
transient nature of the high suggests a strong in-situ or hybrid
event...and so locking in cold air for a long enough duration to
support significant accumulations of wintry weather may be a
difficult proposition. Nevertheless, at least a transient period of
wintry weather...with freezing rain likely being the predominant
precip type appears likely in the usual areas along the Blue Ridge
escarpment and some high elevation locations.

Conditions will dry out and warm up for the latter half of the
extended, as heights rise across the Southeast downstream of
West Coast height falls...with any precip chances associated with
speed maxima ejecting from the West likely to hold off for our area
until the end of next week. Temperatures will remain below normal
through the period...albeit with highs moderating from 10+ degrees
below climo Mon/Tue...to around 5 degrees below normal by Thursday.
Min temps will be near-to-slightly below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period at all terminals as high clouds move across the area. Low-end
gusty winds are possible at all terminals during peak heating,
so placed a TEMPO through 22Z to capture this potential. Clear
skies will return this evening as gusts subside, with the
exception of KAVL, where gusty winds remain in place through a
good portion of the forecast period. Northwesterly component with
the winds are expected through Friday, but may toggle westerly at
times. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected for Friday with some
potential of low-end gusts once again during peak heating.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through the rest of the week. A storm system
approaches the area Sunday, bringing the next chance for flight
restrictions. A relatively unsettled pattern for the first half
of next week, which could lead to continued flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC