445
FXUS62 KGSP 141139
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
639 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area for the next several days as
temperatures warm through the weekend. A series of weak fronts
moving over the area during the first half of next week will bring
periodic shower chances, mainly to the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 637 AM EST Friday: Broad, weak cyclonic flow aloft remains in
place through much of the period, while a ~1025mb surface high sets
up shop over the southern/central Appalachians this morning.
Orographic mid-level clouds have developed over portions of the
northern Blue Ridge Escarpment. With partly to mostly clear skies
and a light northerly wind, expect good radiational cooling
conditions to develop for most locations, leading overnight lows to
run at or slightly below-normal.

Surface high will migrate southward during the daytime hours as a
west-northwesterly 850mb-700mb component keeps the CWFA in a dry,
downsloping pattern, especially taking into account deep mixing
within the boundary layer. As a result, dewpoints will have a good
opportunity to crash with RH values dropping to the 20%-30% range
during peak heating. Low-end fire weather concerns will be present,
but light winds will preclude any need for a fire-related product at
this time. As the high shifts south of the area by the afternoon,
surface winds should toggle around to a south-southwesterly
component and lead to weak moisture advection. However, the onset of
any moisture pull will struggle to overcome an antecedent dry
downsloping airmass and deep boundary layer (top: ~800mb), so
dewpoints will be allowed to mix out. A few bouts of cirrus may move
overhead throughout the day, but mostly sunny skies will prevail for
most locations, which allows afternoon highs to top out up to 5
degrees above normal.

Pressure gradient begins to tighten a little bit overnight Friday as
the surface high remains situated over the Georgia/Florida state
line, while a surface low dives into the Upper Great Lakes region.
Low-level winds should slightly elevated compared to tonight, out of
the southwest, which will lead to an increase in moisture advection
and rising dewpoints throughout the nighttime period. This will
disrupt otherwise good radiational cooling conditions and thus,
Friday night lows will run a category or so warmer compared to
tonight, with values at or a few ticks above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 AM EST Friday: Within a highly amplified upper pattern
over the Conus, heights will fall weakly from the East Coast into
the western Atlantic during the short term, as an upper low sets up
over New England, with a series of speed maxima digging into the
base of the associated trough into early next week. A cold front
associated with the first of these is forecast to sweep across the
East Sat night into Sunday, with the tail end of said front expected
to pass through our forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Although
surface dewpoints will be increasing in advance of this feature
Saturday through Sat night, the quality of the moisture return
will be meager, owing to lingering surface high pressure over
the Gulf. As such, precip chances associated with the front will
be minimal...and may even be more likely in the post-frontal NW
flow regime, where some cold advection moisture across the TN
Valley and western slopes of the Appalachians could yield some
upslope showers early Sunday. However, even those chances are only
20-30%. Otherwise, conditions will be quite warm in the warm sector
regime Sat through Sunday, with temps of at least 10 degrees above
normal expected. Temperatures are expected to return to near-normal
levels Sunday night under modest cold advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Friday: The upper pattern will remain quite
amplified over the Conus through much of next week, with generally
rising heights over the East through the period. With a long wave
trough remaining centered off the East Coast, a ridge will steadily
build east of the Miss Valley through the first half of the week.
This pattern will support generally weak low level high pressure
across the region early in the period. A compact upper low over the
central Great Plains late Monday is forecast to move quickly across
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Mon night into Tue...weakening
quickly as it encounters the strongly confluent flow over the
region. This feature and associated surface wave could bring a quick
shot of showers to the CWA...mainly to the mountains and northern
forecast zones Tuesday into Tue night. However, even the most
generous global models are producing scant precip over the forecast
area...again due to meager moisture return. PoPs are therefore
mainly limited to the 20-40% range in the aforementioned areas.
Conditions are then likely to dry out and cool off to end the
period, when a consensus of global models suggest a more robust area
of high pressure spilling into the East will push a backdoor cold
front/establish inverted surface riding across the CWA by the end of
the extended period...resulting in the forecast return of below-
normal temps. In the interim...temperatures will generally be a few
degrees above climo through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Light north-northwesterly winds will persist
through daybreak, with an area of mid-level clouds over near KHKY,
which is reflected in the prevailing line. Can`t rule out some
mountain valley fog over the southwest North Carolina mountains, but
KAVL should not be impacted. Winds will toggle around to a south-
southwesterly component by the afternoon, with a variable direction
between daybreak and the late morning hours. KAVL should switch to a
south-southeasterly component by the afternoon as well. Partly to
mostly clear skies with some passing cirrus is expected throughout
the daytime hours.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions generally expected through the
remainder of the week. Mountain/river valley fog or low stratus
could return by Saturday morning as moisture begins to return to
the area.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC