280
FXUS62 KGSP 241755
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1255 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry but mild high pressure persists today.  A moist cold front
crosses the area Tuesday into Wednesday, producing widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms.  Much colder temperatures arrive
behind it and continue into the weekend.  Forecast confidence is
very low beyond Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1217 PM EST Monday: An open shortwave trough currently located
over the Central Plains will shift over the Mid-MS Valley tonight
and into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday with an attendant cold
front. Surface high currently parked over the Mid-Atlantic will
gradually move offshore by this evening and set up shop over the
western Atlantic by Tuesday. Better low-level return flow and a warm
front that lifts into the area tonight into Tuesday will place the
area under a warm sector regime by daybreak Tuesday, especially over
the Upstate, northeast Georgia, and southern Blue Ridge Escarpment.
As a better LLJ (35-45 kts) punches in from the south behind the
front, expect a few warm advection showers with isentropic
enhancement to develop during the early morning areas before the
first band of DPVA and height falls move a blob of precip across the
area from west to east after deeper convection develops over the
Deep South, starting around daybreak Tuesday in the southwest
mountains and Upper Savannah River Valley. Overnight lows will vary
from the southwestern portion of the CWFA to the northeast in the
western NC Piedmont as better cloud cover and rising dewpoints will
push into locations west of the I-26 corridor during the nighttime
period, which allows temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal,
while locations east of the I-26 corridor run 5-10 degrees above
normal.

After the initial blob of precip lifts northeast of the CWFA
by the early afternoon, a lull in the precip may occur outside
of a few WAA showers ahead of the main front encroaching the
region. Widespread mid 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will allow for
some form of destabilization to be present as the incoming activity
develop convective elements. However, CAMs struggle to form much in
the way of surface instability, but there will be 250-500 J/kg of
MUCAPE. The main portion of the convection moves into the area after
sunset and pushes across the CWFA through the rest of the evening
and the first half of the overnight period. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
of 45-55 kts, elevated instability, and good moisture available will
allow a broken line of convection along the main frontal band. Still
looking like the severe threat will be very low, but not nonzero,
with a damaging wind gust possible in one or two storms. QPF
response will be locally heavy with most guidance showing 1-3"
of total rainfall, mainly being highlighted across the favorable
upslope zones along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment and southwest
mountains, with less than inch elsewhere. With the CWFA placed in a
robust warm sector despite cloud cover, afternoon highs will still
manage to run 5-10 degrees above normal, with some locations south
and east of I-85 topping out at ~15 degrees above normal where
the warm sector will be established for a longer period of time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1103 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Severe weather increasingly unlikely on Wednesday as
showers/thunder exit the area early in the day.

2) Clear, dry, and cool weather returns by Wednesday night and
persists into Thursday.

Still looking like we`re back to a non-severe setup for
Wednesday, as operational guidance doubles down on a faster
frontal passage...to the extent that now, by 18z Wednesday, most
models depict precipitation largely east of us, an even low-end
surface-based instability barely clipping our southeastnermost
zones, if at all.  So...think this will largely preclude any
potential for severe storms on Wednesday; rather, expect a steady
NW breeze to continue through much of the day in the CAA regime
that develops behind the front.  Expect skies to clear up quite a
bit through the day Wednesday...allowing better solar insolation
alongside weak downsloping...offsetting any effects of CAA and
resulting in highs actually a degree or two warmer than on Tuesday.

By Wednesday night, however, as winds weaken, downsloping abates,
and decent radiative cooling takes hold...expect lows in the
mid-30s, possibly hitting freezing across some Foothills locations
outside the thermal belt.  Considerably cooler weather is in store
for Thursday, as the colder postfrontal air mass fully settles
into the area...resulting in highs only reaching the lower 50s
across the low terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1137 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Bitterly cold air remains in place through at least Saturday.

2) Another cold front arrives on Sunday or Monday, bringing mostly
rain but the possibility of frozen p-types to the mountains.

A cold air mass will remain in place across the region through at
least Saturday.  Highs on Friday and Saturday may not climb out of
the 40s, while overnight lows will drop into the 20s amid excellent
radiative cooling conditions.  Generally expect clear and quiet
conditions each afternoon...with the main concern being potential
for low RHs co-located with breezy afternoon winds.  Right now,
overlap warranting any red flag products is pretty scant...and
the thinking is that ample rainfall associated with the Tue/Wed
system should moisten fuels enough to preclude a significant fire
weather threat.  The forecast will nonetheless need to be monitored
over the coming days.

By Saturday night, much of the eastern CONUS will find itself
beneath a nebulous upper pattern, with mostly flat, unconstrained
z500 flow.  Embedded upper vorticity will gently steer a cold
front across the Ozark Plateau and into the Southeast by Sunday
or Monday...resulting in precipitation developing sometime near
the end of the period.  The details remain murky, however - faster
guidance like the EC and many of its ensembles bring precip into
the area as early as the predawn hours Sunday; slower guidance
like the GEFS keep us dry until after the end of D7.  Depending on
how exactly things flesh out...frozen p-types aren`t out of the
question...but it`s far, far too soon to make any determines as
to what this system may look like.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through
this evening before conditions quickly deteriorate overnight,
especially by daybreak Tuesday. Winds will toggle to mainly an
east to southeasterly component through tonight and Tuesday. Cloud
cover is expected to gradually increase with mid- to upper-level
clouds moving over the terminals through this evening. As better
moisture moves into the area, expect cigs to crash just before or
around daybreak Tuesday with the Upstate sites and KAVL going from
MVFR to IFR in a span of a few hours Tuesday morning. IFR cigs are
expected to expand to KHKY and KCLT a short time after daybreak
Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers with associated restrictions
will also be present and included a VCSH in the prevailing lines
and a PROB30 for the best timing of coverage. Went with a prevailing
-SHRA for KAVL and KAND as confidence is highest at these terminals
for good shower coverage Tuesday morning. Eventually have prevailing
IFR cigs with PROB30 LIFR and SHRA late morning Tuesday into the
afternoon hours as the coverage of precip becomes more widespread
across the area. On and off showers will stick around through
Tuesday afternoon with possible restrictions, but with daytime
heating, the IFR cigs should gradually lift to MVFR or even VFR
by the late afternoon hours. LLWS will be present with the initial
warm frontal passage as it lifts to the north, but restrictions
are very brief.

Outlook: Numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms with
associated restrictions Tuesday into Wednesday as a moist cold
front moves thru the area. Drier and predominantly VFR conditions
should return by late Wednesday and linger through late week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...CAC