089
FXUS62 KGSP 291805
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
105 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal high temperatures stick around through next week. Dry
and cold high pressure departs tonight with a cold front bringing
precipitation chances Sunday. Drier conditions develop briefly
Monday before a low pressure system from the Gulf brings better
precipitation chances Monday night and Tuesday. Dry high pressure
returns Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 103 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet and cool through this evening.

2) Wintry mix develops in spots over the mountains late tonight,
with isolated light ice accumulations possible.

3) Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include the nrn mountain
zones and the area along the Blue Ridge Escarpment north of I-40
in McDowell, Burke, and Caldwell counties beginning 1 AM Sunday.

The afternoon and evening should see a continuation of fair
and cool weather as high pressure retreats off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile, the storm system responsible for all the wintry
weather over the Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon/evening will
be pushing a cold front toward our region from the west. Precip
will stay west of the mtns through at least midnight.

Almost always a tricky forecast when precip onset is expected to
occur in the pre-dawn hours. The forecast appears to be basically
on track at midday with the latest guidance more or less in
continuity/agreement with the previous one, but some of the fine
details remain undecided. There remains a time discrepancy between
most of the synoptic scale models and the CAMs, with the CAMs
developing precip a few hours earlier along the TN border then
expanding/moving eastward through early Sunday morning. In this
situation, I`m inclined to follow along more with the timing of
the CAMs, so the NBM was blended with the CAMs during the critical
hours around dawn. That also goes for the Temps around daybreak. The
earlier onset of precip should allow for some evaporative cooling
initially, which should allow for pockets of 32F-or-less temps to
persist in some locations over the mtns. The effect of these changes
to the NBM is to wipe out a model trend that would suggest such a
low threat of icing that our Advisory would be overdone. In these
situations, we often see a bit more coverage of a light wintry mix
than what would otherwise be indicated, so I prefer to err more on
the side of caution with a bit greater coverage of light freezing
rain potential along the Escarpment north of I-40 where cold
air would be trapped the longest into the middle part of Sunday
morning. Thus, the Advisory will be expanded to include all the
nrn mountain zones and adjacent foothill/mtn zones. Timing still
looks ok. Warm advection should be able to overwhelm and change
all precip to light rain by mid-morning. If we have to extend we
can do that early Sunday morning.

The remainder of Sunday looks cloudy with light precip expanding
eastward across the remainder of the fcst area. The cold front
should start the day far enough to the west that we should get
plenty of time on the warm advection side of the boundary, with the
front not crossing the region until mid/late afternoon. That should
allow temps to actually be a few degrees warmer than today in spite
of the clouds and light precip through the morning, though still
more than 5 degrees on the cool side of normal. Precip should end
from the west with the frontal passage. Not really much of a wind
shift behind the front initially, so the upslope precip chances
on the TN border behind the front are poor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1115 AM EST Saturday:

Key message: Widespread precipitation is expected Monday night into
Tuesday. A light wintry mix and ice acccumulations remain likely in
portions of the mountains and northern NC foothills Monday night
into early Tuesday morning.

Atop developing CAD regime, categorical pcpn cvrg will overspread
the cwfa Monday night ahead of approaching Miller type A low
pressure. Based on the recent speedier model trends it is probable
that SW sections of the region will see light pcpn onset before
sunset. Otherwise, the sensible wx for Monday will feature
thickening clouds as a chilly NE wind caps maximum temperatures
around 10 deg F below the December 1st climo.  The 29/12z model
blend/ensemble pcpn type probabilities continue to favor frza as
being the main p-type concern, mainly limited to the northern Blue
Ridge.  At this point, feel like there is a decent probability that
advisory level ice accumulations will occur in NW NC during the pre-
dawn hours Tuesday Still expecting rapid dry slot encroachment
Tuesday afternoon quickly diminishing pcpn chances, expect for the
NC mountains where a period of wrap-around along with caa maintains
shower chances into the evening along with Tennessee border snow
shower probabilities.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Saturday:

Key message 1: Dry weather and moderating temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

Beneath a quasi-zonal upper pattern, weak sfc ridge axis translates
across the cwfa. Sunshine on Wednesday will give way to a little
more clouds on Thursday as channeled energy ejects our direction
from the southern plains.  Moderating temperatures through the
period will promote values getting back close to climo on Thursday.

Key message 2: Cool and unsettled weather returns for Friday and
Saturday.

Within the broad CONUS l/wv trough, energy is progged to dive SE
through the plains on Friday with the associated jet energy aiding
to blossom pcpn northward from the gulf coast before ejecting
eastward on Saturday.  Within this fast moving pattern, considerable
uncertainty exists with respect to timing and extent of said pcpn
with a large portion of the extended guidance advertising a chilly
and mainly light rainy period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected to prevail through
late tonight at all terminals, but that will come to an end in the
pre-dawn hours to around daybreak from west to east as moisture
arrives ahead of an approaching cold front.  Low clouds will arrive
after midnight and then ceilings will drop from VFR to MVFR as
light precip spreads eastward from daybreak thru mid-morning. Will
handle this transition with a PROB30 for rain with vis staying
around 6SM outside the mtns. The exception should be KCLT where
much of the precip dries up that far east. The reality might be
more like MVFR/VFR variability until a few hours after onset, at
which time guidance leaves the ceiling in the MVFR category until
the front passes after 18Z. Wind should be light SE or variable
until the front approaches and brings the direction around to SW
in the morning.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions briefly return Sunday night and
Monday. Another round of rain and restrictions are expected Tuesday
before dry and mainly VFR conditions return Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM