033
FXUS62 KGSP 220609
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm air mass remains in place over our region today with
decreasing rain chances. Dry but mild high pressure will arrive on
Sunday and persist into early next week. A moist cold front will
cross the the area in the middle of the week, ushering in much
cooler temperatures behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1102 PM Friday: A very active split flow pattern continues to
dominate the synoptic pattern across the country with perturbed
northern stream flow draped from the Pacific Northwest to New
England roughly along the Canadian border. Within the northern
stream, a lead closed upper low and potent shortwave trough is
lifting just south of Hudson Bay with a trailing Pacific jet
extending across British Columbia into Alberta. Farther south,
within the southern branch, a cutoff closed upper low continues to
drop across southern California into the Desert Southwest. In
advance of this feature, a lead dampening shortwave trough is
quickly lifting across the Ohio Valley and will cross the
Appalachians through the overnight and early morning hours. A
sprawling warm sector is apparent in low-level ThetaE fields from
the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The passing wave
and associated speed max translating across the Southern
Appalachians has allowed for a batch of showers to develop across
northeast Georgia into the Upstate. This activity will continue to
push across the area over the next several hours. Otherwise, the
main focus overnight will be dense fog along the I-40 corridor east
of the mountains. The ongoing dense fog advisory remains well placed
and may need to be extended in time based on trends and potentially
in area should the extent of dense fog expand.

Heading into Saturday, flow will become increasingly zonal as the
fast moving shortwave quickly shifts offshore. This will keep a
stalled boundary off to the north as flow will be oriented parallel
to the front. Clearing skies and plentiful sunshine will result in
another very warm day for late November with highs soaring into the
low 70s to low 80s. Several locations will likely set new daily
record highs as anomalous warmth shows no signs of letting go of its
grasp across the southeast states. Forcing will be much more
nebulous, but an isolated or widely scattered shower or two cannot
be ruled out during afternoon peak heating. By Saturday night, the
previously mentioned Pacific jet over British Columbia and Alberta
is progged to dive across the Canadian Prairies and carve out a
trough over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.
Increasing northwest flow extending across the Ohio Valley and into
the Appalachians will finally be the impetus to send the stalled
boundary across the area as a cold front. This will mainly be a dry
frontal passage outside of the immediate mountains along the
Tennessee border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM EST Saturday: Dry and cooler high pressure builds into
the area from the west on Sunday. Cooler is relative as highs will
still be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows Sunday night do drop
to near normal across the mountains and nearly 5 degrees above
normal elsewhere.

The high moves east on Monday and off shore Mon nite. This sets up a
southerly flow across the area with increasing clouds and moisture
late Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Mostly sunny
skies with highs around 5 degrees above normal Monday. Clouds
increase Monday night but showers should remain west of the area.
With the clouds and southerly flow, lows rise to around 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Saturday: Guidance is coming together on the cold
front crossing the area in the Wednesday time frame. A short wave
ridge starts over the area then moves east Tuesday, but it`s still
strong enough to dampen the initial short wave that rides up the
ridge into the Great Lakes. A more intact upper low moves across the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A series of short waves rotating around
the move cross the area Wed and early Thu. At the surface, deep
moisture increases across the area as an initial wave along the
front moves into the area. With moisture and precip moving in and a
dry air mass in place across the area, a weak CAD may develop
Tuesday. The short waves then give the front a push on Wednesday as
another wave moves along the front and into the area. The
combination of forcing and deep moisture bring increasing chances of
showers with this system.

Some timing differences remain which affects the potential for any
surface based instability. Still, even the slower guidance has
little in the way of sbCAPE. The guidance shows the potential for up
to 200 J/kg of muCAPE with strong shear. That said, the frontal
position and shear direction don`t look great for a high shear/low
CAPE event. This will continue to be monitored. Guidance is in
better agreement of the potential for some heavy rainfall,
especially across the mountains. That said, with the dry antecedent
conditions, we don`t expect widespread hydro issues unless QPF
response increases a good bit. Precip tapers off Wed nite, but can`t
rule out a brief period of light NW flow snowfall.

Behind the front, an actual cold air mass moves in as dry high
pressure builds over the area Thu and Fri. Highs Thu around 5
degrees below normal across the mountains and near normal elsewhere
drop a few degrees across the mountains and around 5 degrees below
normal elsewhere on Friday. Lows fall to 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A myriad of flight restrictions are ongoing
and expected to continue through the overnight into the early
morning hours. An area of dense fog is expected to continue at KHKY
along with LIFR ceilings. Elsewhere, patchy MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop overnight with a few instances of IFR not out of
the question. A batch of showers is also progressing across the
Upstate, which will push east over the next several hours and
eventually out of the area. Temporary visibility reductions will be
possible with any of this activity. Clouds will eventually lift and
scatter through the morning with all terminals returning to VFR.
Winds will be gusty through the afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front. The passage of the front Saturday night into early
Sunday morning will bring a subsequent shift to out of the northwest
along with clearing skies and maintenance of VFR conditions.

Outlook: Drier conditions return early next week, although there
will remain some potential for mountain valley fog/low stratus each
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      74 1940     32 1937     57 1934     15 2008
                                                    1937
   KCLT      76 2011     38 1929     65 1883     13 2008
   KGSP      77 2011     38 1937     58 1953     18 1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-069-501>506.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW
CLIMATE...