Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
716 FXUS62 KGSP 031002 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 602 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control as dry conditions remain in place with a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Moisture increases by Sunday through early next, bringing an increase in cloud cover and rain chances, ahead of an approaching cold front which arrives by midweek next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Dry and Pleasant Weather Continues 2) Slightly Less Breezy Compared to the Last Few Days Patchy to locally dense mountain valley fog and low stratus developed this morning thanks to limited strato cu development overnight. Should see fog and low stratus lift shortly after sunrise as daytime mixing gets underway. Morning temps are in the 40s across the NC mountains and the upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Upper ridging remains over the eastern CONUS while the southwestern periphery of sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic extends into the Southeast through period, keeping dry conditions around. It will be another mostly sunny and pleasant day with highs similar to yesterday, ending up near normal to just below normal. Wind speeds will be a bit lighter compared to the last few days, with gusts expected to remain below 20 mph. Areas along and south of I-85 are most likely to see low-end gusts return today before tapering off early this evening. Upper cloud cover will gradually increase this evening into late tonight, becoming broken to overcast by the end of the period. This will allow lows Saturday morning to end up a few degrees warmer compared to this morning. Cloud cover may also act to limit mountain valley fog and low stratus development overnight into daybreak Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1243 AM EDT Friday: Weak, dry hybrid CAD will remain in place through at least the weekend as the center of a ~1025mb surface high shifts from the southern/central Appalachians Saturday and offshore the Mid-Atlantic Coast by daybreak Monday. Dry advection from the northeast should help to keep afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday near-normal despite anomalously warm thicknesses in place as upper ridging settles over the Eastern Seaboard, with a lack of an erosion mechanism. Low-level flow begins to veer more easterly on Sunday and even southeasterly by the start of Monday as a baroclinic zone develops near the central and eastern Gulf Coast, while the upper ridge and surface high gradually propagates offshore the East Coast. Better moisture transport should help induce weak moist upglide over the lingering hybrid wedge Sunday into Sunday night. In this case, an increase in cloud cover is expected, with mentionable PoPs holding off until late Sunday night into Monday as the Atlantic Fetch will have to overcome a dry antecedent airmass. Overnight lows for Saturday night should run a category or so above normal with the onset of better cloud cover. Sunday night lows will rise another category or so compared to Saturday night thanks to extensive cloud cover and slightly better PoPs, especially in the southwestern zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 113 AM EDT Friday: Upper ridging will continue to push further offshore, while the surface high follows in response, which should keep a weak in-situ wedge in place through Tuesday. Better moist upglide is expected Monday and Tuesday, which has increased PoPs across all of the CWFA to slight chance to chance percentages. Temperatures continue a cooler trend in response and may not be low enough with values only a couple ticks below-normal. The upper ridge and surface high should extend well offshore and not expected to have much influence by midweek next week as model guidance continue to send a digging upper trough and associated cold front in from the northwest. Timing and amount of moisture available ahead of the front vary between model guidance, but a strong continental high seems to help push the frontal boundary across the entire CWFA by the end of the forecast period. QPF amounts also vary with the front, but not much of a signal at this time for a likely severe threat as the better shear and forcing reside to the north. Temperatures will be near-normal ahead of the front, with the exception of overnight lows running 5-10 degrees above normal due to extensive cloud cover and elevated dewpoints. Temperatures behind the front, towards the end of the week will cool off rather nicely, with values a category or two below-normal. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 12Z TAF period outside of mountain valley fog/low stratus at KAVL this morning and again overnight into daybreak Saturday. Very little strato cu developed overnight so excellent radiational cooling conditions allowed mountain valley fog and low stratus to develop this morning. KAVL has been bouncing around from VFR to VLIFR cigs and vsbys so will maintain a TEMPO for VLIFR cigs and vsbys through daybreak. Otherwise, winds will remain NE east of the mountains. Winds at KAVL will remain calm to light and VRB through the early morning hours, picking up out of the E/ESE by mid-morning before going back to calm to light and VRB this evening. Wind speeds will be a bit lighter compared to the last few days but some low-end gusts cannot be entirely ruled out today at KCLT or across the SC Upstate terminals. Any gusts that develop should taper off by the early evening hours. Upper cirrus will gradually increase this evening into tonight becoming SCT to BKN, but cigs will remain VFR. Increasing cloud cover may act to limit the mountain valley fog and low stratus development overnight into daybreak Saturday. Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conditions expected across the terminals through the weekend, outside of mountain valley fog/low stratus each morning. Rain chances, and possibly restrictions, return early next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAC NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...CAC LONG TERM...CAC AVIATION...AR