818
FXUS61 KGYX 051731
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
131 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record warmth continues into Tuesday with high pressure
maintaining dry weather. A cold front will cross the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing a period of rain
to the region. High pressure builds in from the west behind the
front with cooler and drier air moving in for the second half of
the week. Temperatures moderate Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Conditions remain sunny and very warm this afternoon thanks to a
strong 500mb ridge more or less directly overhead, per latest RAP
analysis. Skies stay clear through tonight with temperatures ranging
from the mid 40s to lower 50s for lows, which is generally cooler
than guidance as winds will be light to calm. Valley fog is likely
along the CT River again but is also possible in other area river
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure will maintain dry, mostly sunny (with
some passing cirrus), and very warm conditions for Monday, but it
will begin to shift to the east as a cold front moves across the
Great Lakes. Increasing WAA is expected to yield even warmer
temperatures than today with most seeing highs in the lower to
middle 80s based on 850mb temps of +14C to +15C, which will again
threaten daily record highs (please refer to climate section below).

Temperatures remain fairly mild Monday night with the increased
dewpoints, but light winds/mostly clear skies will still result in
good radiational cooling. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to lower
50s, which is on the cooler side of guidance. Like most nights of
late, patchy valley fog is expected, but there may be fog toward the
Midcoast as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The multi day warm spell will continue for one more day Tuesday
before a cold front crosses Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. The front will bring a widespread wetting rainfall
Tuesday night with showers ending northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front with
high pressure sliding west to east across the Northeast the
second half of the week.

Moisture advection will get underway Tuesday ahead of a cold with
clouds increasing from the west late in the day. Southwest winds
will be breezy ahead of the front with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. It
will again be warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Any
showers and thunderstorms associated with the incoming front
will likely remain west of the area through sunset Tuesday
evening.

The 12Z model suite and available CAM guidance suggest an axis
of rain and perhaps some embedded thunder will press into the
area from the northwest Tuesday evening. Rain will spread
southeast Tuesday night with much of the area likely to receive
some beneficial rainfall through Wednesday morning as an axis of
PWATs up to 1.5 inches moves in ahead of the front. As the the
frontal passage will occur at night, any instability will be
waning reducing the probability of heavier rainfall rates from
convective processes. Ensembles show a large spread in QPF
ranging from less than a tenth of an inch to greater than 1.25
inches. Have trimmed down the NBM QPF based on this large spread
with going forecast calling for most areas to see around 0.75
to 1.0 inch of rain.

Rain showers will linger along the coast into Wednesday morning
with drier air arriving Wednesday afternoon. Cold air advection
and deep mixing will bring gusty NW winds with gusts around 25
to 30 mph. Downsloping will help bring highs Wednesday close to
70 degrees along coast while northwest zones will see highs only
in the 50s. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through
Friday for dry conditions. High pressure overhead Thursday
night will promote radiational cooling with lows in the 20s to
low 30s and may be the coldest night of the season for areas
south of the mountains. Temperatures moderate into the weekend
with high pressure likely keeping the area mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...More IFR to LIFR fog is expected at LEB tonight
and Monday night, possibly HIE and RKD as well. Otherwise,
prevailing VFR.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Tuesday. Lowering cigs and rain will
likely bring restrictions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Conditions improve to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. Valley for
will be possible Wednesday night with VFR likely for all sites
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...There will be a continued south to southwest wind
as high pressure remains centered to the southeast of the
waters. Winds begin to increase late in the day Monday through
Monday night as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and
St. Lawrence River Valley, but gusts are expected to remain just
shy of SCA levels at this time.

Long Term...Southwest winds will ramp up Tuesday ahead of a cold
front with SCAs likely needed by Tuesday afternoon. Winds shift
out of the northwest Wednesday behind the front with gusts up to
25 kts. High pressure then builds in for quiet conditions
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be high enough to possibly challenge records
the next few days as an anomalously strong 580+dam ridge builds
over the area by Monday. Here are some of the records to watch.

                 Oct 6       Oct 7
Concord         84(1990)    90(1963)
Manchester      82(2007)    82(2005)
Portland        84(1947)    84(1947)
Augusta         78(1963)    83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Schroeter