348
FXUS61 KGYX 091817
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
117 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain continues off and on tonight through Monday. A cold front
crosses Monday night ushering in a much cooler airmass that will
persist through the middle of the week. Mostly dry weather is
expected south of the mountains behind the front, with
northwesterly flow promoting upslope showers in the north most
days through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A jet streak aloft has led to an area of ascent slowly lifting
north thru the forecast area for much of the day. With temps
quite cold at the onset of precip...a lot of this ended up being
snow...especially thru the foothills. But this even extended some
very light frozen precip near the coast...including PWM.

This band will continue to lift north...mostly rain or snow
depending on temps...into the late afternoon when it exits
north. Those temps continue to be cooler than modeled thanks to
cold air damming...and I had to blend the hi-res guidance to get
something close to reality. Overnight temps remain on a non-
diurnal curve...slowly rising along with continued WAA.

The next area of rain will work into the forecast area early
this evening and gradually spread over the area for the rest of
the night. While it will be chilly...temps should be warm enough
for primarily rain in the lower elevations. In the higher
terrain some snow and mixed precip will be likely.

As the main area of precip moves out tonight...lingering WAA
over the cold air dam may result in fog and low stratus. I have
added some areas of fog mainly after midnight to highlight this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Mon more precip will cross the area with the cold
front/occlusion as low pressure moves to our north. By Mon temps
should be warm enough for rain for all but the highest peaks.
Some thunder will be possible near the coast...especially around
midday from Portland north. If more convective precip can work
into the land zones the QPF may be a tad underdone...especially
across western Maine. The CAA will kick in from the southwest
Mon night...and winds will start to get breezy as the rain
clears out.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Overview: The 500mb weather pattern is going to be dominated
by troughing through the long term period. This will support
unsettled conditions, but lack of large scale synoptic forcing at
the surface looks to preclude any significant precipitation events.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected at this time

Details: Tuesday: Surface low pressure continues to push
northward out of the region as a neutrally oriented trough moves
overhead. This puts the area in the northwest flow, which will
help to bring any lingering shower activity to an end outside of
the mountains, while also promoting upslope snow showers in the
mountains. As usual with this cold air advection pattern,
expect clouds to stay locked in to the mountains with partly
cloudy skies downstream. A look at Froude numbers in the GFS and
NAM suggest a period of supercritical flow that would allow
some flakes to make it down into the foothills and maybe even
the southern Maine coastal plain. High temperatures south of the
mountains make it into the upper 30s to low 40s, so flakes
would just be a novelty with no impacts. North of the mountains
high temperatures top out in the low to mid-30s. It will feel
more like the teens and 20s though as a tightening pressure
gradient brings winds gusts of 20-30 mph. Froude numbers than
suggest that flow becomes more critical overnight retreating
showers and clouds back to the mountains before forcing from the
trough departs completely, bringing them to an end. The
pressure gradient relaxes a little overnight, but we stay well
mixed with gusts 15-20 mph. With actual temperatures in the 20s
areawide, it may feel more like the teens.

Wednesday and Thursday: A brief period of dry weather looks
likely Wednesday morning as we get some shortwave ridging in
between troughs. The next trough rotates in midday, but surface
low pressure remains north of the area so any precipitation
looks to stay confined to the mountains. Clouds should be
abundant across the area regardless as southwesterly flow brings
in some mid-level moisture. This will limit high temperatures
to the low to mid-40s south of the mountains, and to the mid- to
upper 30s to the north. As the axis of this broad trough moves
overhead Wednesday night, clouds begin to clear out south of the
mountains allowing for a uniform low temperatures across the
area in the mid to upper 20s (maybe the immediate coastal plain
holds in the low 30s). The trough makes its exit Thursday, with
models on the fence about how much forcing aloft occurs as it
does. The Euro is favoring more forcing overhead and more light
shower activity, while the Canadian and GFS keep the better
forcing to the south favoring just upslope showers in the
mountains. High and low temperatures similar to Wednesday can be
expected.

Friday-Sunday: Models are in good agreement that a blocking
ridge sets up in the central Atlantic late in the week. This
brings vertically stacked low pressure in the vicinity of the
Gulf of St. Lawrence to a standstill, but disturbances continue
to rotate around it and through our area. There is
unsurprisingly much uncertainty at this point between models on
what these are going to look like, but it is safe to say that
unsettled weather looks to continue through the weekend. There
is even some suggestion that the block breaks down early next
week allowing for more organized systems to make it into the
area once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Largely MVFR conditions have developed across the
forecast area...with a band of rain and snow lifting north into
the mtns and more rain developing to the southwest. CIGs will
continue to lower thru the evening hours...generally from south
to north. With those lower CIGs will come areas of rain/showers
that will sweep north perhaps with drizzle in the breaks in
steady precip. This generally comes to an end between midnight
and 4 am...but drizzle may linger near the coast into the mid
morning hours Mon. As the LLJ moves north tonight some marginal
LLWS is possible near the coast. However with wind direction
more or less uniform I opted not to include in the TAFs for
now. More rain or showers will sweep thru along the cold front
Mon...so I generally expected lingering IFR and MVFR conditions
for much of the day into the overnight...before gradual
improvement.

Long Term...Outside of brief rain/snow showers VFR should be
the prevailing condition through Friday south of the mountains.
LEB and HIE have the higher chances of longer duration MVFR/IFR
as snow showers look to remain prevalent in the mountains.
Wednesday looks like the best chance for widespread MVFR. Wind
gusts Tuesday at all terminals look to be in the 25-30kt range
with the higher gusts near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...East southeast winds will increase tonight as LLJ
sweeps north along the coast. SCA conditions are expected for
all waters into Mon morning. By that time winds will diminish
but seas may linger at or above 5 ft on the outer waters thru
Mon night. However with gale conditions possible Tue I opted not
to extend SCA past the strongest winds as by then the gale watch
will likely be converted to either an extended SCA or gale
warning.

Long Term...SCA conditions continue through the day Thursday. A
period of southwesterly gales is likely Tuesday afternoon into
early Wednesday as low pressure departs to the north of the Gulf
of Maine. Sub-SCA conditions look likely Friday through the
weekend as a ridge sets up in the Atlantic.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ150>154.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Baron