008
FXUS61 KGYX 301111
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
611 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to our west will continue to track through the
Great Lakes and into Canada by this afternoon. This will bring a
potential for mainly light rain and snow across most of the
area. We only get a brief break from winter weather however as
the next storm will quickly arrive Tuesday. This looks like it
could be first widespread snowfall. Once that storm exits the
region Wednesday, the rest of the week will be cool and breezy
with mountain snow showers lingering.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
610 AM Update...Quick update to load in latest observations as
the forecast remains on track. Current radar shows warm air
advection showers trying to get going over the area, but with
dewpoint depression still greater than 5F in most places, there
isn`t any evidence these are reaching the ground. There may be a
few flakes early this morning as moisture increases, but the
bulk of the precipitation still looks to begin pushing in mid-
morning.

Previous Discussion...
Strong warm air advection will ensue this morning as low
pressure moves northeastward through the Great Lakes. Overall
the forecast has not changed much at all over the last two days
as the various models and associated thermal profiles have
remained quite steady from run to run. Therefore, we continue to
expect light precipitation to develop this morning, most likely
in the form of light snow or flurries away from the immediate
coast and southeastern NH with little accumulation expected. The
next batch of stronger forcing will arrive during the afternoon
hours and this is when any snow will turn to a cold rain south
of the foothills as the low levels warm. The bulk of the
accumulating snow will be in the mountains later today into this
evening with several inches expected there.

Southerly winds will also become gusty with 20 to 25 MPH gusts
likely. The coastline may see a brief period of 30-40 MPH gusts
late in the afternoon and early evening, but a low level
inversion should keep stronger winds aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main shield of rain and mountain snow will quickly depart
this evening leaving behind some scattered rain and snow
showers, especially across western zones. Mostly sunny skies are
expected Monday except in the mountains near the Canadian
border. Winds will be gusty with gusts around 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: High pressure crests over New England Monday night
and quickly shifts east Tuesday morning. A progressive area of
low pressure will track near southern New England Tuesday
through Tuesday night bringing accumulating snow to much of the
area. High pressure builds in late Wednesday followed by an
Arctic cold front crossing Thursday.

Impacts:

*Slick travel due to accumulating snow is likely by early
 afternoon Tuesday and will likely become hazardous during the
 evening commute in moderate to heavy snow.

*Snow ends early Wednesday morning, while depending on track
 and resultant snow amounts travel impacts may linger into the
 Wednesday morning commute.

Details: High pressure crests over the area Monday night
allowing temperatures to drop into the single digits north and
teens south. High pressure quickly shifts east Tuesday morning
as attention turns towards an area of low pressure tracking near
southern New England Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Ensembles have generally held steady with loose clustering of
low centers tracking near 40N/70W Tuesday evening and
progressing ENE to south of Nova Scotia Wednesday morning. The
envelope of solutions range from a deepening low pressure system
tracking over southern New England into the Gulf of Maine to a
weak low passing well SE of 40N/70W. The former solution would
result in an axis of moderate to heavy snow across the interior
and increased potential for snow changing to rain at times along
the coastal plain. The latter scenario would result in light to
moderate snow, mainly across the southern half of the area. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, a minority of wetter
solutions continue to skew the mean above the median with
respect to QPF. The latest output from DESI shows that the
spread between the 25th and 75th QPF percentiles is similar to
the mean QPF highlighting the high variance in possible outcomes
at this time range. However, incoming 00Z mesoscale models have
trended higher on QPF so have stuck with the NBM which brings
0.7 to 1.0 inches along and south of the White Mountains and
0.25 to 0.5 inches north of the mountains. Temperatures along
and south of I-95 and southeast NH may warm into the mid 30s
Tuesday afternoon and act to limit snowfall amounts. Where
precipitation stays all snow it is becoming increasingly likely
for Warning level snowfall, while confidence in location is not
high enough for a Watch at this time.

Low pressure quickly tracks east away from the Gulf of Maine
Wednesday morning with precipitation ending by sunrise. High
pressure builds in from the SW with little in the way of CAA
behind the exiting system. This will allow for highs in the mid
to upper 30s south of the mountains while northern areas stay in
the 20s. High pressure shifts south Thursday as a strong cold
front approaches. The timing and strength of this front look
favorable for heavy snow showers and possibly squalls Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR ceilings become more likely by mid-morning as
SHSN begin. Warming temperatures will bring RA to most of the
region by noon except in the mountains and foothills where snow
should continue much of the day. Occasional IFR conditions are
then expected by late afternoon or early evening. Southerly
winds may gust 20 to 35 MPH on the immediate coast late
afternoon and early this evening. VFR gradually returns later
tonight and for Monday except for occasionally lower conditions
in the mountains. Westerly winds gust 20 to 30 kt Monday.

Long Term...Clouds thicken and lower Tuesday morning with snow
likely by mid day across the south overspreading the area during
the afternoon. A period of at least IFR is likely Tuesday
afternoon through the first half of Tuesday night. Snow ends
early Wednesday morning with VFR likely into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Next system arriving today will bring a period of
Gales to most of the coastal waters. Peak gusts may be short
lived with a passing cold front, but low level jet supports
Gales overnight and into early Mon morning. Expect a W wind
shift this evening with this front, becoming NW Monday morning.
With the added wind, wave heights increase quickly Sunday
afternoon, building 8 to 10 ft towards the Midcoast coastal
waters.

Long Term...Low pressure passes near the Gulf of Maine Tuesday
into early Wednesday morning for building seas and possibly a
period of northerly Gales. Winds drop below 25 kts briefly
Wednesday afternoon before SW winds ramp up Wednesday night
through Thursday ahead of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ150-152.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ151.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ153-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cornwell/Ekster
LONG TERM...Schroeter