815
FXUS61 KGYX 021202
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
802 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centers over northern New England today and will
dominate the weather pattern into early next week. A warming
trend will develop into the weekend with well above normal
temperatures lasting into the middle of next week. The next
signal for measurable precipitation arrives late Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update: Quick update to expire the Frost/Freeze headlines on
time. Temperatures will continue to warm through the morning.

Previous Discussion: Mostly sunny and dry weather continues
today with ridging in place. Winds go locally onshore this
afternoon and temperatures rise to near normal after a chilly
early morning. A high rip current risk statement has been issued
for today, with the highest seas expected this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Another good radiational cooling night tonight with outlying
areas seeing some frost once again. Another fine day Friday with
warmer temperatures as high pressure moves well to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
01Z NBM Update...No major changes to discuss with the latest
available guidance for the long term period. Deep layer ridging
will build over the weekend into early next week that will set
up a very warm and dry pattern. There is a modest signal in
ensembles that a potent cold front will cross the Northeast
around the middle of next week that will bring the next chance
for measurable rainfall.

Previously...

Key Message: High pressure remains in control of the weather thru
the extended. Temps will return to above normal thru the middle of
the week.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions. As temps turn warmer
and fuels continue to dry out fire weather concerns may also
increase.

Forecast Details: High pressure will be centered south of New
England. It will remain close enough that we should still see large
diurnal ranges in temps. With southwest winds bringing in warmer air
during the day...and radiational cooling getting lower elevations
cool overnight. It does look like S/WV trofs passing thru the St.
Lawrence Valley will keep the northern extent of the ridging knocked
down a bit. There may even be some cloud cover along that boundary
thru the weekend. But the majority of the forecast area will lay
south of that front...and will return to above normal temps.

Heading into early next week ridging builds well north of the
forecast area...and deep southwesterly flow will set up. This is
when ensemble guidance is signaling temps will turn quite warm.
Reading well above normal are expected thru at least Tue. Mon/Tue
may see temps within a few degrees of daily records. Beyond that
model guidance is hinting at a strong cold frontal passage midweek
and a return to more seasonally appropriate weather.

Otherwise it will be another very dry stretch. Little if any rain is
forecast and worsening drought conditions are expected by next
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with winds going locally onshore. Early
morning radiation fog in the river valleys...but this will
largely be confined to HIE and LEB much like past high pressure
events.

Long Term...High pressure will ensure widespread VFR conditions
prevail for much of the TAF period. Overnight will retain some
threat of radiation fog in the river valleys...but this will largely
be confined to HIE and LEB much like past high pressure events.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions subside this afternoon.

Long Term...With high pressure in control...winds and seas are expected
to remain below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MEZ023>027.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster/Hargrove
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Legro/Schroeter