058
FXUS61 KGYX 031446
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1046 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in from the north through Tuesday for
mostly fair weather outside of a few afternoon showers both
days. Temperatures will run above normal through mid week with
afternoon sea breezes bringing cooler conditions to the coast.
A trough approaches from the west Wednesday and will linger near
New England through the end of the week for unsettled
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM Update...Incoming 12Z guidance is showing more
instability to work with this afternoon across the foothills of
western ME as well as the western ME mountains. Based on this,
have raised PoPs slightly across these areas and included a
slight chance of thunderstorms (which could also produce small
hail if more robust updrafts are able to getting going).

640 AM Update...Have increased sky cover over portions of SW
Maine and NH based on latest satellite trends. Otherwise, have
refreshed T/Tds to capture the latest round of observations.

Previously...

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low south of
Nova Scotia with the 00Z model suite suggesting this low will
not move much today. The mid level ridge axis that was overhead
yesterday has weakened and shifted westward. The lack of mid
level ridging and a surface trough associated with the upper low
will bring low chances for afternoon showers today with the
highest PoPs over the mountains and foothills. Otherwise, it
will be a mostly fair weather day with a mix of clouds and sun
and light winds. Highs will range from the 70s across Maine to
the mid 80s across western and southern NH. A sea breeze will
likely develop by early afternoon keeping coastal areas closer
to 70 degrees for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Any shower activity should dissipate this evening. Skies will be
mostly clear across northern and western zones with more clouds
along the coastal plain. Onshore flow through today into tonight
will also bring the potential for patchy fog along the coastal
plain. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 50s.

The upper low south of Nova Scotia is forecast to move slowly
into the Atlantic with a surface high sliding south over the
forecast area into the Gulf of Maine by Tuesday evening. Another
mostly fair weather day is expected with the exception being
building instability near the CT Valley leading to a few
afternoon showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s with
cooler readings near the coast and temperatures climbing into
the low 80s along the CT Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Downstream low pressure will slowly move northward,
allowing a return to unsettled weather for much of the remainder
of the week. Chances for showers will start to increase Wednesday
onwards. Daytime temperatures remain around normal, with
overnight lows expected to be mild.

Details: Tuesday night, upper moisture will dive out of Quebec
and move across ME and NH. This coinciding with retreat of the
downstream low will slowly saturate the column for shower
chances across the interior Wed afternoon. Remains uncertainty
on amounts and coverage, but PWATs should push above one inch
during the afternoon with building instability to develop
showers or even some storms. This will occur ahead of deeper
moisture arriving in the Northeast into Thursday.

Upper low will tumble across the Great Lakes Thursday into
Friday. This will keep unsettled, rainy conditions in the area
perhaps into early next week. The concern here would be the
repeated chances for slow moving showers or storms during the
day. NBM mean brings some central areas close to 2 inches of
measurable precip through next Wednesday, and this isnt
capturing the convective nature some of these repeat showers may
contain. So considering the deeper PWATs, slow storm motion, and
residence time of the upper low, would expect the chance for
building excessive rainfall that could eventually cause flooding
concerns. Will need to keep an eye just how prevalent
precipitation trends amid this pattern, as this can be a tall
task for guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR today with a few afternoon showers
possibly impacting KAUG and KHIE. Onshore flow today into
tonight will bring the threat for low cigs along the coastal
plain and possibly some fog leading to a period of MVFR/IFR
early Tuesday morning. Mainly VFR conditions on Tuesday with the
exception of afternoon showers possibly impacting KLEB and KHIE.

Long Term...Coastal fog may develop overnight into Wednesday
morning, with SHRA expected across the interior terminals
Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled conditions are expected for the
second half of the week, which means lower ceilings amid SHRA or
perhaps TS during afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
today through Tuesday. A weak gradient over the waters will
allow for afternoon sea breezes to develop with high pressure
eventually settling over the waters Tuesday evening. Patchy fog
is also possible over the waters late tonight into Tuesday
morning.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions are forecast, but fog may be
in vicinity mid to late week as high pressure exits and low
pressure nears late week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cornwell