433
FXUS61 KGYX 171754
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1254 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery winds and mountain snow showers will gradually diminish
through midweek as high pressure builds towards the region from the
west.  Quiet weather with seasonable temperatures is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday before the next frontal system brings the
chance for rain and mountain snow showers to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages:

*Breezy conditions continue with upslope snow showers in the
mountains and a few downstream flurries.

Details: A wintry look to the surface weather map this
afternoon with substantial low pressure /sub 980mb...-3.5 sigma/
over the Canadian maritimes with chilly...and brisk cyclonic
flow throughout the northeastern United States. T8s are below
normal for the middle of November...just above
-10C...which...combined with a substantial amount of cloud cover
associated with overhead shortwave...has resulted in surface
temperatures about 5-8F below seasonal norms with wind chills in
the teens and 20s.

SHSN continue across northern areas...confirmed by regional
observations and webcams. A fluffy inch or two additional snow
is possible across Coos county outside of the higher
terrain...where more substantial upslope totals are expected.
High froude numbers have allowed some SHSN/flurries to reach
into the foothills but this activity should wane through the
evening as moisture thins and mid level heights rise. For
tonight...the mountain SHSN continues with gradually clearing
skies in the downslope areas.

The chilly/blustery conditions will be the story through the
overnight as H9 winds continue to reach 35kts as the gradient only
very slowly slackens.  Moisture also slowly diminishes through the
column which will increasingly constrict SHSN activity to the
upslope areas of the mountains.  Otherwise...expect lows in the 20s
throughout the forecast area with wind chills roughly 10F cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:
* Gradually diminishing winds and mountain snow showers through the
  period with temperatures remaining below normal.

Details:  The general pattern of chilly northwest flow continues
through the short term period. T8s remain in the -5 to -10C
range with continued meager boundary layer moisture /PWATs
<0.25"/. Thus..the story will be clouds and mountain snow
showers continuing in the upslope regions with dry conditions
and partly/mostly sunny skies to the south and east as lowering
froude numbers suggest increasingly blocked flow.

Winds will be weaker on Tuesday than today as H9 winds weaken to 20-
30kts.  Thus...expect 10-15G20-25mph to be more the norm outside of
the high terrain.

As for the snow shower activity...height rises are expected for much
of the day Tuesday before another shortwave embedded in the
northwest flow aloft moves towards the region Tuesday night.  By the
time this wave reaches...deep moisture is rather minimal...so other
than continuing some cloudiness...a dry night is expected with
weaker winds allowing low temperatures to drop further...with
some upper teens possible...esp where there is some thin snow
cover and clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Key Messages:
* Expect a very gradual warmup into the weekend but temperatures
  generally remain below average to average for this time of
  year.
* The next widespread chance of precipitation comes Friday
  through Friday night, but impacts continue to look fairly low.

Details:
The long term starts off in low amplitude northwest flow aloft
with modest ridging to our west. We will see rising heights
through the day on Wednesday as high pressure also moves in at
the surface. This will mean dry conditions through the day and
slightly warmer temperatures than Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday
will mainly range from the upper 20s to the upper 30s across the
mountains and northern valleys, to the low to mid 40s
elsewhere.

We transition to nearly zonal flow aloft Wednesday night into
Thursday as the ridge axis to our west continues to deamplify on
it`s approach. A weak shortwave moves through on Thursday but most
of the forcing remains well outside of our forecast area so we
should remain mostly dry as high pressure is slow to move out to the
east. Highs on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday but maybe just
a touch warmer over the higher terrain.

We switch back to southwest flow aloft Thursday night into Friday as
the next longwave trough approaches. This system will lead to our
next widespread precipitation chances Friday through Friday night,
but it continues to look relatively low impact given the progressive
nature of the trough. NBM 24-hour QPF probabilities suggest medium
chances for liquid totals of at least a quarter inch and low to
medium chances for liquid totals greater than a half inch (and the
higher probabilities are mainly over the mountains and foothills).
Precipitation type appears to mainly be rain outside of the higher
terrain but some snow will be possible in the mountains. However, at
this time, NBM snow probabilities for totals over an inch only max
out around 20 to 30 percent. Friday may end up being our warmest day
of the long term with highs ranging from the 30s and lower 40s
across the north, to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A few lower 50s
will be possible over southern New Hampshire and coastal areas.

Upper low moves farther north into Quebec and eventually the
Canadian Maritimes Friday night into Saturday as the trough
continues to move east. A few wrap around snow showers will be
possible through the rest of the weekend as we remain in cyclonic
flow aloft with various weak waves moving through into the start of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: Gradually decreasing northwest winds are expected through
the period with ongoing mountain SHSN with this afternoon`s flurries
southeast of the mountains ending and skies slowly clearing.

Restrictions: Expect MVFR restrictions due to CIGS and occasional
SHSN to continue at HIE through tonight with improvement to VFR by
Tuesday afternoon.  Elsewhere expect VFR conditions to dominate the
period through Tuesday night.

Winds:  Northwest winds 20G30kts south/15G25kts north will continue
into this evening before decreasing to around 10kts for the
overnight.  Northwest winds will be weaker on Tuesday...generally
12G20kts before diminishing to less than 10kts Tuesday night.

LLWS: LLWS is not expected through Tuesday night.

Long Term...VFR conditions are likely Wednesday through at
least Thursday. A return of widespread precipitation chances
then could lead to some restrictions Friday and into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gales continue outside of the bays this afternoon
with winds gradually expected to diminish with a transition to
SCAs conditions still expected overnight tonight. No changes to
ongoing headlines with residual SCAs likely ending Tuesday night
as winds/waves continue to subside.

Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA thresholds Wednesday
morning, with northwest flow weakening. Winds become lighter and
more variable through the end of the week, with both winds and
seas expected to stay below SCA thresholds through the second
half of this week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Arnott
NEAR TERM...Arnott
SHORT TERM...Arnott
LONG TERM...Hargrove
AVIATION...Arnott/Hargrove
MARINE...Arnott/Hargrove