432
FXUS61 KGYX 282331
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
631 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross New England this afternoon
bringing a round of snow showers and potential squalls. After
high pressure quickly moves near the region Saturday into
Saturday night, low pressure and a cold front will draw moisture
and precipitation back into the region Sunday into Sunday
night. High pressure then tracks through New England Monday and
Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update...The coverage and intensity of snow showers has
continued to diminish this evening with the passage of a short
wave trough. Upslope snow showers on western slopes of the
mountains will continue overnight, however. Breezy and cold
conditions continue to be expected overnight.

Previously...

A well-defined 500mb shortwave continues to trek through New
England this afternoon, providing the lift for snow showers with
the primary focus remaining on the potential for heavy snow
showers and/or squalls. The environment continues to be
favorable with SPC mesoanalysis depicting steep low-level pretty
much areawide lapse with snow squall parameters also
increasing. Current radar imagery suggests watching portions of
southern NH closely as there is a steady stream of lake-effect
moisture. The last couple runs of the HRRR are also favoring
western ME from the foothills southward over the next couple of
hours especially Fryeburg-Lewiston/Auburn-Augusta-the Midcoast,
but will see how things play out. Outside of snow showers, it
will be mostly cloudy and breezy with gusts of 25-35 mph,
possibly up to 40 mph.

Snow showers are expected to largely diminish south of the
mountains after 4-5PM as the sun goes down and with the
shortwave passing to the east. Winds will stay up through this
evening and tonight with gusts of 20-25 mph at times, which
results in wind chills in the teens. For the mountains and
portions of the CT Valley, upslope flow will keep snow showers
going through the night, and there may be a bit of spillover
into the foothills as Froude numbers remain elevated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air advection continues on Saturday with low pressure across
the Canadian Maritimes. It will again be on the breezy side with
gusts up to 30 mph based on forecast soundings, which will make it
feel chillier than the actual temperature. Current forecast has wind
chills staying the 20s south of the mountains and in the teens in
the mountains.

The mountains will see more upslope snow showers at least through
the morning as upslope flow remains, but these should taper off
through the afternoon as high pressure starts to build in. The
overall airmass will be drier, but Froude numbers support some
spillover of clouds downwind of the mountains and possibly some
flurries.

The high pressure settles in for Saturday night bringing light
winds. Temperatures could drop pretty quick if skies are clear
enough early on, but increase clouds are expected to level off
temperatures or even bring them up a bit as the night goes on. Lows
should be mostly in the 20s, but a few spots may get down into the
10s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This afternoon`s discussion has been shortened to focus on
active weather in the near-term forecast.

11/28 1200PM UPDATE...Extended forecast remains on track, with
minimal changes necessary. Forecast guidance is continuing to
point in the stormier direction for Tuesday afternoon`s winter
weather. Both Euro and GFS snow probabilities show that there is
still a 30-40% chance of seeing at least 6 inches of snow
across New Hampshire and Maine. At this time, we are more
uncertain about the intensity of the low over the track of it.
It will probably snow across a wide swath of New Hampshire and
western Maine on Tuesday. Honing in on how intense the low could
be will give us more defined answers to whether we are talking
about widespread Winter Weather Advisory snowfall or a more
defined winter storm bringing over 6 inches of snow.

Previously...
Precipitation moves in Sunday morning, with snow likely in the
mountains but mostly rain elsewhere. A couple inches of snow is
not out of the question north of the mountains, but snow will
struggle to accumulate in the foothills and south. Precipitation
should clear out of the area for most by Sunday evening, with
some lingering snow showers expected to persist across the
interior through Monday morning.

High pressure returns on Monday with mostly dry conditions
likely, along with clearing skies. However, this period of
quieter weather will be brief.

Monday night, a low pressure system looks to develop over the
Ohio River Valley, and move eastward. Cyclogenesis looks
favorable as the low looks to position itself in the left exit
region of a weak upwind jet streak, as well as the right
entrance region of a much stronger jet streak downstream. This
should allow for increased upper-level divergence and lower
pressure falls within the low. Uncertainty still remains with
storm track, but models have come into stronger agreement that
winter weather is likely Tuesday, and this system has a solid
chance of becoming the first notable widespread winter storm for
the region. Despite the large spread on intensity, ECMWF and
GFS Ensemble snow probabilities show at least a widespread 40%
chance to see greater than 6 inches of snow across New Hampshire
and western Maine. Snow may be heavy at times and substantially
skewer visibility during the day Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday look drier and higher pressure works into
the area. A couple isolated snow showers can`t be ruled out
across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Scattered snow showers, some potentially heavy, or
even snow squalls could bring instances of IFR or lower
visibilities should any pass over a terminal this afternoon.
Outside of these, conditions will be primarily VFR with gusty
winds of up to 30 kt. Snow showers should wane 21-22Z this
afternoon, except at HIE, where occasional restrictions could
persist through tonight. Winds may continue to gusts around 20
kt at times through tonight. For Sat-Sat night, mostly VFR is
expected with gusty west winds continuing, but these will become
light later in the day through Saturday night as high pressure
builds in.

Long Term...Lowered restrictions are likely Sunday, with the heaviest
restrictions possible in the north due to snow. Restrictions
will stay down through Monday morning. VFR prevails through the
remainder of Monday, and into Tuesday morning. Restrictions
lower on Tuesday due to an possible winter storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Westerly gales will persist over the outer waters
through tonight with SCA conditions in the bays. Once the gales
subside, SCA conditions are likely over the outer waters through
Saturday afternoon across the bays and then over the outer
waters into Saturday evening. High pressure brings improving
conditions Saturday night with conditions staying under SCA
levels.

Long Term...Light and variable winds are likely to continue
through Sunday afternoon. Seas lower from 3-5ft to 2-3ft in this
timeframe. SCA thresholds are likely Sunday night through
Monday morning, with some gales possible during this time frame
as well. Marine conditions improve on Monday but SCA thresholds
may return again by Tuesday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Combs/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...
MARINE...