452
FXUS61 KGYX 071744
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1244 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight with some light
precipitation expected. We say precipitation because some of
that will fall in the form of snow and maybe a wintry mix in the
mountains. A breezy Saturday will give way to increasing clouds
and a stronger storm system Sunday. Outside of some mountain
snow, it will mostly be a cold rain across the area. A much
stronger cold front crosses the region Tuesday. Gusty northwest
winds will usher in a colder air mass and temperatures are
likely to remain in the 40s during the day for the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave moves in from the west this afternoon, bringing a cold
front across the region. Model guidance has consistently shown a
much drier trend with the passing front, with no more than a quarter
of an inch of rain expected. The front passes the region late at
night, with most of the precipitation out of the area by early
Saturday morning. Some front end wintry mix / snow is also possible
north of the mountains this evening, though no more than a coating
of snow/sleet is expected. A localized glaze of ice can not be ruled
out in this area as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions generally improve through the day on Saturday, with
upslope showers expected in the mountains. These showers gradually
wind down through the day and skies clear up everywhere as higher
pressure moves in. Highs look to be on the warmer side, with upper
40s in the mountains and lower 60s near the coast.

Saturday night, partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds
will allow for chilly low temperatures. It`s not likely that
locations will completely calm, so radiational cooling Saturday
night will likely be inefficient. Lows look to range from lower 20s
in the north to mid-30s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message: Near to below normal temps thru the extended. Best
chance for precip early in the week followed by breezy offshore
winds and upslope showers.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated. Some
wintry weather expected in the mtns.

Forecast Details: Most of the action will occur in the first
part of the extended as a seasonably strong trof crosses the
eastern CONUS. The bulk of the anomalous conditions will be in
the base of the trof...mainly over the Southeast...but a strong
upper level jet and left exit region will approach the forecast
area Sun/Sun night. Ensemble already showing a good cold air
damming signal...with u- shaped isobar pattern and high
pressures branching north of the region. This is a common
failure mode for the NBM temps...so I have lowered both max
temps and hourly temps Sun as precip moves in with that in mind.
It will be a cold rain for most...but some wintry precip is
likely for the higher terrain. It will start as snow
initially...but as the column should dry out eventually this may
turn to drizzle/freezing drizzle. Given the uncertainty
surrounding surface temps at this range...I have kept precip
types just rain and snow for now.

By Mon night a solid cold front will be working thru the
region. Strong CAA will help with mechanical mixing but I would
not be surprised if we needed a little sunshine Tue to help mix
the front completely thru. CAA will continue into at least Tue
night...so I anticipate gusty winds for around 24 hrs. That will
also start a period of below normal weather...where temps
largely stay in the 40s for most locations. With continued
offshore winds thru the remainder of the week...upslope cloud
cover and rain/snow showers will also linger in the mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Restrictions lower this evening as a shortwave
bring rain to the area. Snow may lower restrictions further
north of the mountains briefly this evening. By Saturday
morning, restrictions improve as dry air works its way back into
the area. VFR expected from Saturday morning through Sunday
morning.


Long Term...Conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly on
Sun as precip moves in during the afternoon. Areas of IFR or
lower are anticipated into Mon. TAF sites are likely to remain
MVFR VIS in rain...but HIE may be close to snow at times with
the IFR VIS that typically brings. Otherwise low CIGs will drive
the flight restrictions. Some marginal LLWS is possible Sun
night as east southeast LLJ will lift over the top of light
northeast winds at the surface. This will be most likely away
from the coast. Offshore flow from Mon onward will bring VFR
conditions south of the mtns...but HIE will likely experience
MVFR CIGs at times in upslope cloud cover. Surface wind gusts on
Tue may exceed 25 kt at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas increase to SCA levels tonight, with
southerly picks picking up to around 30kts. Seas will peak early
Saturday morning at 3-7ft. By Saturday morning, marine
conditions improve with diminishing seas and westerly winds
through the day. Seas return to below SCA levels by Saturday
evening. Winds and seas continue to calm from then through
Sunday morning.


Long Term...Winds and seas will increase Sun night as east
southeast LLJ lifts over the waters. At this time SCA conditions
appear most likely. After a brief break Mon a strong cold front
crosses the waters and winds become stronger Tue. Gale force
gusts are possible outside the bays with strong SCAs likely
inside the bays. Generally gusty offshore flow will continue for
much of the rest of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Along to offshore winds continue to produce a negative surge
and likely will continue to do so through Saturday. While
astronomical tides remain high through the weekend, no flooding
is anticipated.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Palmer
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Legro/Palmer
MARINE...Legro/Palmer