483
FXUS61 KGYX 040439
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1239 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place and continue to dominate our
local weather into the first part of next week. High temperatures
will stay well above normal through the start of the work week.
Some temperatures in the 80s will be possible each day Saturday
through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
night or Wednesday and bring back normal temperatures along
with our next chance at rainfall. Dry conditions likely return
for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY and TONIGHT/...
Ridging will aid in delivering very warm weather for early
October today and for the next several days for that matter. A
short wave trough moving across northernmost ME later today will
bring a weak backdoor cold front into the forecast area later
today and tonight. But this front will be rather inconsequential
as WAA will overpower it and move it back north on Sunday. Dry
weather continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures are expected on
Sunday with deep layer ridging over the region. Perhaps not
quite record breaking with respect to high temperatures but
very warm nonetheless.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early morning long term update...Well above average
temperatures will persist on Monday and Tuesday with near record
high temperatures possible. A strong cold front and trough of
low pressure will then cross from north to south Tuesday night
into Wednesday, bringing our best chance for widespread
measurable rainfall. Sharply colder temperatures will then
arrive on Wednesday with daytime highs around 15-20 degrees
cooler than those of Tuesday. Even colder air arrives for
Thursday with many areas potentially struggling to get out of
the 50s and lows near or below freezing in much of the area. A
weak moderating trend is then possible thereafter.

Previously...

Dry and mostly sunny conditions continue with well-above normal
temperatures Sun-Tues thanks to an anomalously strong 500mb
ridge over the Northeast. Temperatures are forecast to reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s over most of the region each of these
days, potentially even nearing daily record highs, especially at
AUG and PWM (see climate section below).

The ridge shifts east on Tuesday as a cold front approaches,
bringing the next chance of rain in the late Tuesday into
Wednesday timeframe. Models may be a little quicker in the FROPA
with latest models runs and are in relatively good agreement on
the timing. First the good news: there is a strong signal in
the ensembles that most areas still receive rain. The not so
good news is that there is a trend in less rainfall with this
system with most ensemble members now advertising less than a
half inch of rain. So relief from the drought is looking
unlikely.

Temperatures start to come down with the front on Wednesday,
and then Thursday and Friday likely return to dry conditions
(except maybe a few upslope showers in the mountains) with
cooler and closer to normal temperatures as high pressure builds
into the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR is expected to prevail through Sunday as high
pressure remains over the region. Some patchy fog is possible
near valley terminals, but drier air will become an increasingly
limiting factor over the next couple of nights. No significant
wind or low level wind shear is expected through Sunday.

Long Term...Primarily VFR Sunday night through at least the
first part of Tuesday with the exception of valley fog at
night/early morning, mainly at LEB and HIE. A cold front then
approaches toward the middle of next week, bringing a chance of
rain and possible restrictions from late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure over the waters will keep wind gusts
and seas below SCA criteria. Southwesterly winds shift more
northwesterly tonight, then back to southwesterly for Sunday as
a seabreeze attempts to develop once again.

Long Term...A cold front will approach and cross around
midweek, and the S/SW winds winds ahead of the front may
increase to SCA levels. The northerly flow behind the front
could also be above criteria, but conditions should improve by
the end of next week as high pressure settles into the New
England.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be high enough to possibly challenge records
the next few days as an anomalously strong 580+dam ridge builds
over the area by Monday. Here are some of the records to watch.

               Oct 4       Oct 5       Oct 6       Oct 7
Concord      84(2023)    86(1926)    84(1990)    90(1963)
Manchester   87(1891)    86(2007)    82(2007)    82(2005)
Portland     82(1941)    81(1946)    84(1947)    84(1947)
Augusta      82(2023)    80(2007)    78(1963)    83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Combs/Ekster/Tubbs