354
FXUS61 KGYX 091831
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
131 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system brings a period of light snow tonight. Low
pressure tracks across northern New England Wednesday, spreading
accumulating snow across the interior while areas near the
coast will see mostly rain. A cold front cross Thursday morning
for drier and blustery conditions lasting into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mostly clear skies are currently overhead with a tranquil day
experienced so far. Clouds are expected to arrive this
afternoon, as a weak warm front arrives from the west. For many,
this front should be mostly dry, though the Midcoast could see
a quick overnight coating to an inch of snow from it. Low
temperatures tonight will fall into the teens for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the low pressure system moves in tomorrow. The
track of the low looks to take a more interior track, which will
advect some warm air along the coast. This warm air advection
will be coming from the southwest, which will make it difficult
for the warm air to move further inland. This will allow for an
interesting precipitation-type paradigm, with mostly snow
expected in the foothills and mountains, and rain along the
coast.

Hi-res guidance has started to show a thin band of freezing rain
could be likely in a swath extending from Auburn/Lewiston to
Augusta, and Waterville. BUFKIT soundings confirm that this swath is
more likely to be freezing rain than sleet, as a more defined warm
layer is present with shallower below freezing air at the surface.
Any icing will be mainly confined to the aforementioned swath
in Maine, and no freezing rain is expected across New Hampshire.

Accumulating snow is expected across interior NH and in northwestern
Maine. Snow should generally be light to moderate, and will start in
the late morning tomorrow. However, some low-level frontogenesis and
upslope in the mountains could allow for some periods of heavier
snow Wednesday afternoon in and around more prominent mountain
ranges. Across the lower elevations in this region, generally 3-6
inches of snow is likely, with perhaps a little less near Littleton,
Whitefield.

Precipitation exits the region Wednesday night, with lingering
upslope snow showers expected through Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Early on Thursday, a
closed upper low is forecast to be centered somewhere along the
Ottawa to Montreal corridor. This low will slowly move east
northeast through the day, tracking into northern Maine by the
evening hours. A cold front will also be moving through the
forecast area on Thursday morning. Most frontal precipitation
will move out early in the morning as the boundary pushes off to
the east, but cyclonic flow aloft will lead to plenty of
upslope snow showers over the higher terrain through the day. A
few snow showers may linger over portions of the Midcoast and
interior.

Thursday will also see some gusty westerly winds behind the front.
While pressure rises don`t look overly impressive, we should see
steady cold air advection through the day. The latest NAM forecast
soundings suggest a brief window for 35 to 45 knots at the top of
the mixed layer during the afternoon on Thursday, so some gusts to
40 mph (at least) look possible. It should stay fairly breezy
overnight, especially across the higher terrain and near the coast.

Given the gusty winds and steady cold air advection, it will feel
blustery on Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to range from
the lower 20s north to the lower 30s south, but a few mid to upper
30s are possible along coastal areas. However, when winds are
factored in, apparent temperatures will mainly be in the single
digits below zero north, to the low to mid teens above south and
along the coast.

Friday looks blustery as well with breezy winds lingering and highs
forecast to even be a little bit colder. The NBM is currently
advertising highs in the low to mid teens north, to the upper 20s
and lower 30s south. Once again, the stronger winds will make it
feel quite a bit colder than what the thermometer reads. Friday
should generally be dry, but a few more upslope snow showers are not
out of the question in the mountains.

A progressive upper ridge axis moves across the region Friday night
and the next shortwave trough starts to approach on Saturday. This
next system will bring widespread low to medium precipitation
chances to the forecast area Saturday and Sunday which should mainly
come in the form of light snow. That being said, some ensemble
guidance suggests the potential for some heavier precipitation on
Sunday as the main shortwave pushes through. For now, NBM
probabilities for an inch of snow or greater are fairly low (20 to
30 percent), but model/ensemble trends will need to be watched as we
get closer.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the lower 20s to the
lower 30s and then models are in fairly good agreement that we will
see the next shot of cold on Monday behind a cold front that moves
through on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR expected this afternoon. Increasing cloudiness
will lower CIGs tonight, with snow lowering restrictions at RKD.
Brief period of low VFR expected early Wednesday morning.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the remainder of
the morning, as rain and snow move in. Conditions slowly
improve outside of the mountains Wednesday night as
precipitationexits the region.

Long Term...MVFR conditions will likely be ongoing in spots
Thursday morning with lingering interior and mountain snow
(maybe some localized IFR conditions). Conditions improve
through the day and into Thursday night, with VFR likely for
most by Friday. LEB and HIE stand the best chance to hold onto
MVFR ceilings with an increasing upslope flow through the
weekend. VFR mostly prevails, but there will be an increasing
chance for some snow showers over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Light southwesterly winds are expected this
afternoon, with 2-3ft seas. Tonight, seas and winds increase to
SCA levels as a low moves in from the west. Seas increase to
4-7ft by Wednesday morning. Southwesterly winds continue to
increase through the day, becoming Gale force in the afternoon.
Seas increase to 6-9ft by the end of the day. Marine conditions
only start improving by early Thursday morning.

Long Term...SCA conditions may linger through at least Friday
night, with westerly gales possible on Friday behind a cold
front. High pressure builds across the waters on Saturday and
then the next cold front approaches Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Palmer
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Hargrove