871
FXUS61 KGYX 092320
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
720 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the area through Friday with the coldest
night of the season thus far expected tonight. Temperatures
moderate Saturday under fair skies. A closed low near the Mid
Atlantic will migrate northward early next week and will bring a
chance for rain Sunday night into Monday along with building
winds and seas on the coastal waters.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update:
As winds continue to diminish temperatures should tank
overnight with a dry airmass in place and minimal cloud cover.
No major changes were needed for this evening update other than
to update the Aviation discussion below and blend in the latest
observations to the going forecast.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure continues to build into New England through the
overnight hours, with the high cresting the region early
tomorrow morning. With a dry, cool airmass in place, clear
skies, and lightening winds, conditions all align for ideal
radiational cooling conditions tonight. This yields the coldest
night so far this fall in most areas, and a widespread freeze
across the interior. A freeze remains possible all the way to
the coastline, with frost likely.

A freeze warning remains in effect for all areas still in
season. Forecast temps range from the low 20s across the
northern valleys, to the mid and upper 20s across most of the
interior. Low 30s look mostly likely along the coast. MAV
guidance continues to look to be the best performer for tonight,
but the forecast doesn`t go quite as cold as the MAV, which has
widespread upper teens to low 20s. Looking around where the
high center was in western Quebec this morning, lows looked to
bottom out around 23-25 degrees, so this likely serves as a
reasonable lower limit for most of the interior valleys for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures begin to rebound tomorrow as the high shifts east
of New England. Under mainly sunny skies highs warm into the mid
to upper 50s across the north, with low 60s likely elsewhere.
With the high moving offshore, a seabreeze likely develops in
the afternoon. Given the cool airmass, temperatures likely drop
into the low to mid 50s along the immediate shoreline with the
seabreeze as the airmass doesn`t have enough time to moderate
over the warmer waters before winds turn onshore.

Mainly clear skies continue Friday night, but with a
southwesterly flow overnight radiational cooling conditions will
likely be more confined to the northern valleys. Here, temps
likely drop into the mid to upper 20s. Along the coast, upper
30s to low 40s look most likely, with mid 30s in between across
the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period starts off with fair weather Saturday and
into the first portion of Sunday as high pressure gradually
retreats. Temperatures both days will be above normal during the
daylight hours.

Merging low pressure systems to our southwest are nearly
unanimously progged to gradually move northward up the Mid
Atlantic coast as one low pressure system Sunday and Monday.
What remains uncertain is how far north the low pressure system
gets before dumbelling out to sea by Tuesday in association with
a southeastward moving upper level low that is finally getting
kicked out. This will determine the northward coverage of
rainfall as well as intensity. At this moment there is still
quite a bit of ensemble spread here as we`ll be on the northern
fringe of the system. As of this writing we are moderately
confident to go with likely PoPs across southern and coastal
zones, with lesser PoPs well inland.

Winds could also be an issue as well with the gradient
tightening up between the high to our north and low to our
south. Easterly gales will be likely on our coastal waters but
winds over the land don`t look overly concerning at this point,
with gusts possibly up to 30 kt on the coast. There will be a
long easterly fetch for a few days early next week. Astronomical
tides will be on their way down but still high enough that some
minor coastal flooding will be possible.

Fair weather then returns later Tue into Wed before another
possible cold front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions should prevail through most of the
short term but the usual valley fog will be possible. That being
said, confidence is a bit lower tonight due to a dry airmass.
For now, will just advertise scattered low clouds but KHIE,
KLEB, and KCON may see some patchy fog tonight and tomorrow
night.

Long Term...VFR prevails at all terminals during the daytime through
Sunday. Nighttime valley fog is possible each night, especially at
LEB, HIE, and CON. Restrictions are then possible by early next
week, especially along the coast, as a coastal low brings an
increasing chance of rain and gusty coastal winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Winds continue to ease overnight as high pressure
builds across the waters. The high then remains in place
bringing fair conditions across the waters through Friday night.

Long Term...High pressure brings fair conditions to the waters
through early Sunday. Seas and winds build starting on Sunday as a
coastal low moves up the the Eastern Seaboard. SCA conditions are
possible by late Sunday, with gales possible across the outer waters
by Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a long easterly fetch for a few days late this
weekend and early next week. Astronomical tides will be on
their way down but still high enough that some minor coastal
flooding will be possible centered around Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     NHZ003>015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hargrove/Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Ekster