798
FXUS61 KGYX 190508
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1208 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be building in today with mostly sunny skies
and temperatures near normal. Tonight however the clear skies
and light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly. By
Thursday morning expect widespread temperatures in the teens and
20s with even a few single digits possible in the northern
valleys. A cold front will cross the region to end the work
week, bringing mostly rain showers but some mountain snows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Not much weather to speak of today as we transition from cold
advection...northwest flow to high pressure building in. Temps
will be near normal and winds much lighter than the past couple
of days. The final shortwave trof diving thru the backside of
the departing upper trof will help to shunt a weak overrunning
event south of the forecast area. But some high cloudiness may
be able to sneak across southern zones. For most of the area
however it should be sunny as the mtn cloud cover continues to
scatter out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High will build across the region well timed for tonight. With
clear skies and calm winds...and some snow cover across the
north...temps will plummet after dark. Forecast is already the
coldest night of the season so far for most areas...but MOS
guidance has some single digits in the northern valleys. Given
MWN temps/dewpoints already approaching the single digits that
does seem like a possibility. So I did adjust the NBM forecast
down a few degrees. Otherwise Thu will feature increasing cloud
cover but seasonable temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Evening Update: Little change to the current forecast. The
upcoming pattern is overall fairly average and this is born out
in current ensemble guidance. Temps look seasonable...winds not
particularly gusty...and any precip not significant/extreme. The
best chance for precip will be with a frontal passage Fri into
Sat. However it looks fairly typically for this time of
year...with mostly rain but some mtn snow.

Key Messages:
* Quick, low moisture system into Friday afternoon and evening
  will bring rain showers to the area, with a brief wintry mix
  towards the mountains. Accumulating wintry precip, while
  light, looks mostly elevation based.

Details: High pressure overhead Thursday will see cool
temperature continue, but more clouds are expected compared to
Wednesday. Winds remain light overnight as temps dip into the
mid 20s. This high will pull east as the next weather system
approaches from the west.

Low pressure over Hudson Bay will swing an occluded front into
the Northern Great Lakes with potential triple point low moving
into NY state Fri morning. Nearing warm front will bring temp
increase for the day overall, but only into the mid to upper
40s, with temps around 50 for the coast. Focus for the system
will be a period of precipitation, most of which may be showery
for bulk of the coast and interior. The mountains are expected
to see the greatest QPF, but NBM and AI GFS both depict
comparative amounts into the Kennebec Valley and Midcoast.
Deterministic models are the most bearish outside of the
mountains, likely emphasizing the lack of deeper moisture
available. For precip types, model profiles are warm, and don`t
expect wintry precip outside of the mountains. Even here, the
afternoon arrival may limit how much is seen in the valleys vs.
higher elevations...especially as the pattern isn`t too
favorable for CAD.

Precipitation will taper Friday night, ending by Sat morning.
Departing system will leave behind a breezy Saturday, but
otherwise little change to going conditions. Forecast supports a
dry weekend, with the NW surface flow continuing to bring in
lower than normal temps. While clouds are forecast to stick
around, this flow could lead to overnight lows in the upper
teens for portions of northern NH and far western ME Sat night.

Into early next week, pattern becomes a little more active, but
there remains little to no confidence in one particular system.
Broad cyclonic flow will sink into the James Bay region with
broad jet from the Midwest into Ohio Valley. This should be good
transport for embedded shortwaves to move along which is what
carries the confidence of a more active weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Largely VFR conditions expected thru Thu. There are
some local MVFR CIGs lingering north of the White Mtns...but
otherwise CIGs have lifted or scattered out completely. I
anticipate that any MVFR CIGs at HIE will be temporary tonight
as the air mass continues to dry and northwest winds continue to
weaken.

Long Term...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR CIGs as a front
approaches the area Fri. With rain moving into the area there
may be some local IFR conditions in the heaviest precip...but
overall expecting more MVFR than anything else. Behind the front
northwest winds return and VFR quickly develop south of the
mtns. Lingering MVFR CIGs expected north of the mtns into Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will continue to diminish and are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru Thu.

Long Term...Overall winds are not anticipated to be gusty thru
the extended and likewise there is little reason for the seas to
build. A front passing thru the region this weekend will allow
for a brief window of marginal SCA conditions...but this may
primarily remain well offshore and closer to 20 to 25 nm from
shore.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Legro
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro