666
FXHW60 PHFO 030105
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
305 PM HST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable southeasterly background flow will persist across much
of the state into Wednesday, leading a rather dry land and sea
breeze pattern from Oahu to Big Island. A weakening front will
stall near Kauai, producing increased clouds and higher rainfall
chances on the Garden Isle, mainly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Moderate east to southeasterly trade winds will build
across the island chain on Thursday, focusing showers over
windward and mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Stable and mostly dry conditions persist under light winds this
afternoon. An advancing front over 200 miles northwest of the
state is keeping the subtropical ridge near Kauai, resulting in a
generally light southeasterly background flow. This is keeping
most islands in the downwind wake of the Big Island and is
allowing a land and sea breeze pattern to dominate. A ridge aloft
is maintaining a somewhat strong inversion around 6,500 feet,
while precipitable water remains below seasonal normal. These
ingredients continue to produce scant rainfall, even as afternoon
sea breezes generate clouds over interior terrain. The
southeasterly flow is also carrying some volcanic emissions from
recent activity at Kilauea over most islands. While air quality
sensors continue to show somewhat low concentrations and there is
no significant restriction to visibility, some haze persists.

Wetter conditions may develop on Kauai Wednesday, while much of
the state remains under the rather dry land and sea breeze regime.
A trough will develop tonight ahead of the above mentioned front
over the coastal waters west of Kauai and Niihau. Expect some
increase in shower activity along this feature, but little
rainfall is expected over land tonight. The front and trough will
merge on Wednesday and drift eastward toward Kauai, bringing
increased chances for showers on Kauai during the afternoon and
evening. Since there will be little upper level support for the
weak front and models depict the feature stalling over or just
west of Kauai, widespread heavy showers are not likely, though
northern slopes and interior sections of the Garden Isle could
experience over an inch of rain in the wettest scenario. Chances
for rainfall on Kauai will decrease later Wednesday night as the
old frontal band retreats westward.

Moderate east to southeast trade winds will strengthen on
Thursday, pushing the deeper moisture away from Kauai. Winds
could become locally breezy as shower activity along the old
frontal band west of Kauai is enhanced by a shortwave aloft. This
will help tighten the local pressure gradient and induce the
surging east to southeast winds over the state. Conditions will
remain stable, and typical moisture will produce showers over east
and southeast slopes.

Moderate easterly trade winds and a typical pattern of mainly
windward and mauka showers is expected Friday through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Primarily VFR with increasing chances for showers and MVFR
ceilings over Kauai on Wednesday in response to a front stalling
in the vicinity of the island. Winds east of the front will have
a general light background flow veering more southeast to south
from Big Island to Kauai. These large scale winds will remain weak
enough to allow local land and sea breezes to survive. Overnight
light drainage land breezes developing early this evening will
transition back to light onshore winds by late Wednesday morning.
As the sea breeze or a more southerly flow builds clouds along
leeward-facing slopes, localized MVFR ceilings may briefly occur
across these interior areas.

No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface ridge will remain over the area and allow light
to moderate southeast background flow to continue through
tomorrow. This pattern will allow for daytime sea breezes and
nighttime land breezes along waters adjacent to the coasts. A cold
front, currently around 200 nm northwest of the state, is
forecast to approach Kauai on Wednesday. The front will then stall
and weaken into a trough by Thursday before retrograding back
westward, away from the state. By Thursday through this weekend, a
ridge of high pressure strengthening northeast of the region will
bring a return of moderate to locally strong easterly trades. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be needed for the typical
windier zones surrounding Maui and the Big Island. A moderate to
large NW swell could also bring seas to SCA criteria (10 feet)
Thursday night into Friday. So at this time, a SCA for winds to 25
kt and seas 10 feet or higher look likely by Thursday afternoon.

The current moderate, medium period, northwest swell (310-330)
will continue to slowly decrease tonight. A series of northwest
to north-northwest (310-340 degree) swells are expected during
the second half of the week, with each pulse becoming slightly
bigger with each passing day. The first pulse, a medium period
northwest swell, will begin to fill in on Wednesday, and generate
surf just below advisory levels. A slightly larger and longer
period pulse is expected on Thursday out of the northwest followed
by a slightly larger northwest on Friday. Surf heights should
exceed advisory thresholds Thursday through through Friday, with
the peak approaching warning levels late Thursday into Friday.

East shore surf will remain small through Wednesday due to weak
winds, then become choppier by Thursday as trade winds increase from
Thursday through the weekend. Expect minimal background energy for
south facing shores through much of the week.

There is the potential for minor coastal flooding from December
4th to December 6th. Peak monthly tides combined with water levels
that are running higher than predicted could lead to minor
flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas.
Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which
will be during the early morning hours. This could also magnify
effects of the expected high surf on coastal areas around the same
time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this week. Winds
will remain light through Wednesday, with higher rainfall chances
on Kauai. The inversion will hold at 5000 to 6500 ft through
Wednesday, keeping very dry conditions on the upper elevations of
the Big Island and Maui. Moderate east to southeast winds will be
below the critical fire weather threshold Friday into early next
week. Humidity will be near seasonal normal, and the inversion
will lift slightly.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...Tsamous
FIRE WEATHER...Wroe