188
FXHW60 PHFO 031347
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
347 AM HST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds prevail across much of the state, maintaining a dry.
mostly stable land and sea breeze regime. A slow-moving frontal
passage will stall just west of Kauai today, resulting in
enhanced shower activity and increased cloud coverage across much
of the Garden Isle through this evening before the front weakens
to a trough and retrogrades back westward and dissipates. High
pressure builds northeast of the state, allowing moderate trades
to return Thursday as well as showers across windward and mauka
areas.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds prevail maintaining stable and mostly dry conditions,
allowing a land and sea breeze pattern to dominant across the
Hawaiian Islands. The highlighted feature remains to be a slow-
moving frontal passage northwest of the islands that continues to
propagate toward Kauai. Latest model guidance of the GFS and
ECMWF are now seemingly in fairly decent agreement that the front
will ultimately stall just west of Kauai. That said, pre-frontal
shower activity, especially over northern slopes and interior
areas of the Garden Isle could experience over an inch of
precipitation prior to the front weakening to a trough and
retrograding back westward in the absolute wettest scenario. The
latest Total Precipitable Water (PWATs) Normalized Anomaly from
the GFS and ECWMF both depict roughly 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal over Kauai as the front approaches. This isn`t
implying a widespread heavy shower event, but it is suggesting
that, even though the front is anticipated to stall west of Kauai,
it may very well still bring in a significant amount of moisture.

With models lining up a bit better than previous runs, confidence
has increased that this will be the most likely scenario as the
front crawls towards Kauai. Meanwhile, the remainder of the
state will remain unimpacted under the same dry, mostly stable
land and sea breeze regime through the next couple of days.

The aforementioned front has also has an impact on retaining the
subtropical ridge near Kauai, leading to predominately
southeasterly background flow, as depicted by the latest
observations. As a result, this has escorted some volcanic
emissions (vog) from the most recent Kilauea activity across
portions of the state. While many of the air quality sensor,
particularly across leeward Big Island show slightly higher
concentrations, the overall consensus showcases the highest
concentrations remain in the offshore west of the state and are
not significantly impacting the islands themselves. Moreover,
visibility does not seem to be restricted much either, though some
haze may still persist in low-lying areas.

By Thursday, the broad surface-level high pressure system well
northeast of the islands will gradually build as the weakened
frontal passage begins to dissipate. Trades will respond
accordingly to the tightened pressure gradient, strengthening to
a more moderate pattern, further pushing away any of the
remaining deeper moisture away from Kauai. Conversely, expect a
more typical trade shower pattern mainly over windward and mauka
areas across the state, prevailing through early next week.



&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds persist resulting in daytime sea breezes and overnight
land breezes to occur. A slowly advancing front is expected to
stall just west of Kauai, resulting in enhanced shower activity
and increased cloud coverage which may bring periods of MVFR
conditions predominately to northern slopes and interior areas of
Kauai. Moderate trades return toward the end of the forecast
period, focusing showers across windward and mauka areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.


&&

.MARINE...
A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected stall west
of Kauai today, before weakening to a trough Thursday and
retrograding back to the west. Thursday through this weekend, a
ridge of high pressure is expected to strengthen northeast of the
region, which will allow moderate to locally strong easterly
trades. As trades increase, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will
likely be needed for the typical windier zones surrounding Maui
and the Big Island. A moderate to large NW swell could also bring
seas to SCA criteria (10 feet) Thursday night into Friday. So at
this time, a SCA for winds to 25 kt and seas 10 feet or higher
look likely by Thursday afternoon.

The current moderate, medium period northwest swell (310-330) has
been holding overnight at the nearshore buoys. Meanwhile the next
swell (310-330) reached Buoy 51101 to the northwest of the
islands around 8pm. This swell is expected to reach Kauai around
sunrise, and Oahu a little later in the morning. This is the first
in a series of northwest to north-northwest (310-340) swells that
are expected over the coming days. This swell will be reinforced
by another on Thursday that should bring surf to advisory levels
Thursday into Friday. Another slightly larger northwest swell is
expected to arrive on Friday, which will maintain the elevated
surf.

East shore surf will remain small today due to weak winds, then
become choppier by Thursday as trade winds increase from Thursday
through the weekend. Expect minimal background energy for south
facing shores through much of the week.

There is the potential for minor coastal flooding from December
4th to December 6th. Peak monthly tides combined with water levels
that are running higher than predicted could lead to minor
flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas.
Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which
will be during the early morning hours. This could also magnify
effects of the expected high surf on coastal areas around the same
time frame.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this week.
Light winds persist through the day, with increased rainfall
probability on Kauai associated to an advancing frontal passage.
Elsewhere across the state will remain dry and mostly stable.
Moderate trades will return under critical fire weather thresholds
thereafter and prevail through early next week. The temperature
inversion heights over Maui and the Big Island will range from
6500 to 7500 feet today.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...M Ballard
FIRE WEATHER...Pierce