114
FXHW60 PHFO 091328
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
328 AM HST Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Light south to southeasterly flow will be with us into Friday,
with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes. A lingering
area of increased moisture will support scattered to numerous
showers near the western end of the state for the next couple of
days. Light to moderate trades return late Friday as surface high
pressure northeast of the state becomes re-established.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A surface low north of the state will weaken through Friday,
allowing surface high pressure well off to the northeast to become
our dominant wind feature by Saturday. This will bring a return of
light to moderate easterly trade winds, and limit the influence of
sea and land breezes. However, until that time, today and
tomorrow will still have a strong component of these breezes. This
will once again bring an above-average amount of leeward showers
to the state. The best chance for showers will be over Kauai,
where a lingering but decaying boundary holds increased moisture.
Radar has been active this morning, with lightning observed to the
northeast of the Kauai coastal waters. Additional showers were
observed over the southeast and northwest coasts of the Big
Island.

Models have come into better agreement on the evolution of an
upper level trough forecast to form nearby in the early to middle
part of next week, with the trough expected to form just north of,
and then drift just west of, the state. The surface reflection of
this feature will increase the pressure gradient (low pressure
nearby to contrast with the high far off to our northeast), and
thereby increase east to southeast flow Tuesday and Wednesday.
This is not a true trade wind due to its direction, but the
increase in speed will result in a different pattern compared to
what we are experiencing this week. The exact details of these
differences will become clearer as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Weak southeast winds will continue through tonight, resulting in
sea and land breezes across the state. Expect more showers near
PHLI than other TAF sites due to a decaying but still relevant
moist axis drifting north across Kauai today. Most sites will see
VFR conditions, but occasional MVFR and isolated IFR in showers
is to be expected. No AIRMETS in effect, but mountain obscuration
my redevelop over Kauai later today.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface trough near Kauai and Oahu will continue to drift
northwest through the end of the week. Light to gentle southeast
to south flow will also give way to localized land and sea
breezes over nearshore waters. Gentle to locally fresh easterly
trade winds will build in from the east through the day on Friday
and hold through the weekend. Early next week, a potential surface
trough develops north of the waters and may disrupt the trade
winds for another round of light to gentle southeast winds.

A mix of a small, medium period northwest swell and a small, short
period north northeast swell will maintain small surf for north
facing shores through Saturday. Another small medium period
northwest swell will fill in late Saturday followed by a moderate
medium to long period northwest swell that is expected to fill in
Sunday and peak on Monday near High Surf Advisory criteria. Recent
model guidance has exhibited a low bias, compared with observed
nearshore buoy readings running higher than forecast guidance. As
a result, surf heights may come in larger then currently
indicated by the model output.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the
weekend with a series of small medium to long period south and
southwest swells. East facing shores will remain tiny to small
through Friday except for select shorelines exposed to the
current small north northeast swell. A slight uptick is expected this
weekend as easterly trade winds return. In addition, a small,
medium to long period easterly swell from Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla in the East Pacific is forecast to arrive late Saturday
into Sunday.

Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to
minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal
areas through early next week. Coastal flooding will coincide
with the daily peak tide each morning. A Coastal Flood Statement
remains in effect for all coastal areas through Friday, but will
likely need to be extended into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Weak winds and continued isolated to scattered showers will help
mitigate fire weather concerns for the next several days.
Inversion heights across the state will range from as low as 5,000
to as high as 9,000 feet.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Parker/Wroe
AVIATION...Parker/Wroe
MARINE...Shigesato
FIRE WEATHER...Parker/Wroe