762
FXHW60 PHFO 100159
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 PM HST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening frontal boundary will continue to move south across
the Big Island tonight. Breezy to locally strong trades will
persist through much of the week, becoming even stronger by mid-
week as strong high pressure builds north of the islands. Typical
windward and mauka showers will prevail, with generally drier
conditions over leeward areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and satellite imagery show a weakening frontal boundary
draped across the Big Island this afternoon. Clouds and light to
brief moderate showers remain focused over windward and mauka
areas of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island, with the
occasional spillover into leeward areas of the smaller islands.
Rainfall totals over the last 6 to 12 hours ranged from 0.20
inches over portions of windward Oahu to over 4 inches along
portions of windward Molokai and Maui. Portions of windward Big
Island have already received close to 2 inches of rain today.

Guidance continues to show a diffuse frontal boundary moving south
across the rest of the Big Island tonight. This will bring some
much needed rainfall to portions of the Kau District, but mid-
level ridging will continue to limit vertical development. Expect
slightly drier and more stable conditions to continue post-
frontal as high pressure builds north of the state. This slightly
drier air mass will bring lower dew points to the area so
temperatures will feel cooler than normal over the next couple of
days.

Aside from some light and variable winds over portions of
southeast Big Island this afternoon, recent obs and the latest
ASCAT pass shows breezy to locally strong northeast winds have
filled in across much of the state. Expect wind speeds to slowly
strengthen over the next couple of days and peak mid-week as
strong high pressure builds far north of the state. Based on the
latest guidance a wind advisory may be necessary for portions of
the state later this week. Otherwise, windy trades continue
through much of the week with clouds and showers favoring windward
and mauka areas under stable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weakening front, currently near the Big Island, will continue
to sag southward through tonight. Enhanced showers and MVFR
conditions will accompany this boundary, with breezy NE winds now
over most of the state behind it. VFR conditions will prevail
behind the front, but MVFR conditions are still likely along
windward higher terrain as moisture and showers continue to ride
in and bank up against the mountains. NE winds are expected to
strengthen further over the next couple of days after the front
moves out.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for N thru E sections of Oahu
through the Big Island for MTN obscurations due to low clouds and
showers from the front. Additional areas may be dropped from
this AIRMET as conditions improve behind the front.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and
downwind of island terrain across the entire state as winds
strengthen behind the front.

In addition, due to the ongoing eruption of Kilauea today, SIGMET
Tango is currently in effect over and southwest of the volcano for
a mixture of volcanic ash and gas emissions extending up to FL150.
this SIGMET will be updated or cancelled as additional information
becomes available.

&&

.MARINE...
Weakening remnants of the old cold front is near the Big Island
waters this afternoon and will continue to push southeast through
tonight. In its wake, fresh to strong northeast trade winds will
fill in and maintain over all marine zones. A Small Craft Advisory
has been expanded and extended through Monday night for all
coastal marine zones due to a combination of winds and high seas.
High pressure north of the waters looks to strengthen and build
Wednesday and Thursday increasing the trade winds to near-gale
force speeds over the windier waters and channels around Maui
County and the Big Island.

The current moderate medium period north-northwest swell is expected
to fade slightly through the evening hours before a moderate to
large north- northeast swell is expected to fill in late tonight.
Offshore NDBC buoy 51001 to the northwest as well as buoy 51000
to the north have shown signs of this swell this afternoon. Due to
the 11 to 13 second period, swell energy from the north-northeast
is expected to reach shorelines late tonight into Monday morning
and hold through Monday night. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been
issued for north facing shores starting at midnight through
Tuesday morning. A Marine Weather Statement (MWS) coinciding with
the north- northeast swell has also been issued for all windward
waters starting at midnight through Tuesday morning due to the
potential for surges in north facing harbors including Hilo and
Kahului. The MWS may need to be extended through the middle of
the week but will be determined at a later time.

Later this week, a moderate northwest swell is expected to fill in
late Tuesday, and peak Wednesday near High Surf Advisory levels
for north and potentially west facing shores. Also, a northeast
swell from a forming low pressure system to the northeast is
expected to be mixed in with the rough choppy seas from the trade
winds.

East facing shores will exhibit large rough choppy seas through
the forecast period, with potentially the largest surf at High
Surf Advisory levels during the middle of the week.

A small, long period, south-southwest swell will keep surf
heights near seasonal averages along south facing shores through
this evening. A series of south swells is expected Monday through
Thursday which will keep surf elevated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions not expected the next couple of
days. Breezy to locally strong trades will continue across the
state through much of the week, but low-level moisture embedded
within the trades should help to keep relative humidity from
reaching critical thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Tuesday for
Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-
Kauai East-East Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-
Molokai Southeast-Molokai North-Maui Central Valley North-
Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Shigesato
FIRE WEATHER...Ahue