026
FXHW60 PHFO 040129
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
329 PM HST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As a dissipating front near Kauai drifts away from the state,
southeasterly winds will become locally breezy on Thursday and
shower activity will become focused along east and southeast
slopes of all islands. Trade winds will ease slightly and shift
out of the east from Saturday into early next week, supporting a
typical pattern of windward and mauka rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A dissipating front stalled just west of the state is producing
somewhat wet conditions on parts of Kauai and Niihau, while the
rest of the island chain experiences one last day of light winds
with stable and dry weather. Kauai lies under the eastern edge of
a broad shield of low clouds marking the stalled front. There is
little upper-level support for the feature, which is limiting
shower activity on land to scattered light to moderate showers. A
few interior stations on Kauai collected around two thirds to
three quarters of an inch during the past 12 hours, while most
coastal stations have observed little rainfall. Across the rest of
the island chain, mainly light southeasterly background winds
continue to be overpowered by daytime sea breezes, and a ridge
aloft is maintaining stable conditions with modest available
moisture. As a result, little rainfall has been measured from Oahu
to Big Island today.

For tonight, the dissipating front and its associated moisture
will slowly retreat westward, leading to a decrease in showers on
Kauai and Niihau. A surface high far to the northeast will build,
causing the southeasterly flow across most of the island chain to
gradually strengthen. These winds may push a few showers onto
eastern slopes of Maui and Big Island, while overnight land
breezes should maintain mostly dry conditions elsewhere.

Southeast winds will strengthen on Thursday, pushing the deeper
moisture away from Kauai. Winds could become locally breezy as
shower activity along the old frontal band west of Kauai is
enhanced by a shortwave aloft. This will help tighten the local
pressure gradient and induce the surging southeast winds over the
state. Conditions will remain stable, and typical moisture will
produce showers over east and southeast slopes.

Moderate easterly trade winds and a typical pattern of mainly
windward and mauka showers is expected Saturday through early
next week. Pockets of moisture moving along the trade wind flow
will periodically boost rainfall, but no significant moisture
source is noted in the guidance. The GFS and ECMWF predictions
diverge by the middle of next week, though both suggest that trade
wind could break down.

&&

.AVIATION...
A band of clouds and showers associated with a stationary front to
the west will bring clouds and showers to Kauai through tonight.
AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500
feet for Kauai. VFR conditions with light east southeast winds
will persist across the remaining islands tonight. Winds will
strengthen out of the east southeast statewide tonight carrying a
few clouds and showers over the islands by Thursday morning, and
forcing the band across Kauai to the west of the area. Likely AIRMET
Tango for tempo moderate turbulence and low-level wind shear at
PHOG by Thursday afternoon due to the strengthening east-southeast
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A front west of Kauai will gradually weaken to a trough and get
pushed to the west on Thursday as a new ridge of high pressure
north of the area builds. This ridge will build from Thursday
through the weekend and allow moderate to locally strong easterly
trades. As trades increase, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will
likely be needed for the typical windier zones surrounding Maui
and the Big Island. A moderate NW swell and strong trade winds
could also bring seas close to SCA criteria (10 feet) Thursday
night into Friday. So at this time, a SCA for winds to 25 kt and
seas to 10 feet are possible by Thursday night.

The current moderate, medium period west northwest swell
(300-330) has been holding today at the nearshore buoys. This
swell should hold through tonight, maintaining moderate sized surf
along north and west shores. This swell will be reinforced by
another on Thursday that should bring surf to close to advisory
levels Thursday afternoon into Friday. Another slightly larger
northwest swell is expected to arrive on Friday, which could also
reach advisory levels and maintain elevated surf through Friday
night. That swell will slowly decline through the weekend. A small
medium to long period northwest swell is expected early next week
followed by a moderate northwest by the middle of next week.

East shore surf will remain small today due to weak winds, then
become large and choppy by Thursday as trade winds increase from
Thursday through the weekend. Expect minimal background energy for
south facing shores through much of the week.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted could lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is
possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the
early morning hours. This could also magnify effects of the
expected high surf on coastal areas around the same time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this week.
Light winds will give way to mainly moderate east to southeast
winds by Thursday, but winds will be below the critical fire
weather threshold. Humidity will be near seasonal normal, and the
inversion will lift slightly from its current range of around
7500 feet.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Tsamous
FIRE WEATHER...Wroe