145
FXHW60 PHFO 080207 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
407 PM HST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds are expected across the state tonight as a front
approaches from the northwest. The front will move north to south
across the islands chain this weekend, bringing increased
rainfall that will be primarily focused along windward slopes.
Breezy trades will follow the front, persisting through much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Trade winds have been mostly cut off today thanks to a broad low
pressure system to the northeast and its associated cold front
that is located in the northern offshore waters this afternoon.
Light east-southeasterly background flow prevails across the
state, and as a result, daytime sea breezes have increased clouds
over island interiors and sheltered leeward locations. Despite
slight weakening of the mid level ridge over the region, mostly
stable conditions remain in place in advance of the front`s
arrival in Hawaii, and showers across the islands today have been
light. Afternoon 00z soundings at Lihue and Hilo continued to show
strong inversions between 5,000 and 6,000 feet.

On Saturday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
approach and move over the western end of the state, then make
its way down the island chain Saturday and Saturday night, and
pass over the eastern end of the state sometime on Sunday. Modest
low level moisture pooling ahead of and along this boundary will
increase rain chances as the front progresses down the island
chain. Breezy trades overrunning the front will focus most of the
showers along windward and mauka areas, but some showers may also
blow over island terrain to reach leeward areas of the smaller
islands as well. Model guidance continues to indicate that, with
little to no upper-level support with this system, rainfall rates
will likely be limited. The relative quick-moving nature of the
front through the island chain will serve as an additional
limiting factor for flooding concerns. With that said, have leaned
on the higher end of available guidance for QPF, which indicates
at least a couple of inches of rain will be possible in some
locations throughout the weekend (particularly along some windward
areas of Maui and the Big Island).

Breezy to windy east-northeasterly trades will become established
across the state by Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north.
Another reinforcing front with an even stronger high pressure
system will arrive midweek, providing another boost in the east-
northeasterly trades. With mid level ridging persisting over the
region, inversion heights will remain low, keeping the moisture
confined to lower levels and focusing clouds and showers over
windward and mauka areas. Few changes have been made to the long
range forecast with this afternoon`s updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds continue throughout the remainder of the
day, where isolated MVFR conditions over interior terrain may
develop. By tomorrow morning, a southward advancing cold front
will approach Kauai, escorting moderate to breezy northeasterly
trades and enhanced shower activity along the frontal boundary.
The front will initially impact PHLI in the morning, PHNL and PHJR
in the afternoon, and then spreading further southward across the
remainder of the state.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulance for
the entire state, but may need to be trimmed later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds continue through tonight as an area of
low pressure moves north of the Hawaiian Islands and an associated
cold front approaches from the northwest. The front is forecast to
pass across the island chain late Saturday into Sunday. Fresh to
locally strong north-northeast winds and seas building into the
lower teens are expected behind the front. These winds look to
continue into next week as high pressure builds north of the
state. Seas will also remain elevated above 10 ft during this
time. Small Craft Advisories for winds and seas will likely be
issued later tonight or Saturday.

The current small to moderate, medium period, northwest swell
(320-330 degrees) will continue to slowly subside through early
Saturday keeping surf near seasonal normals along north facing
shores. A deep low pressure system far north of the state
generated a large, short to medium period, northerly swell with
a north to south fetch pointed directly towards the islands. This
swell will help to bump surf heights up late Saturday into Sunday,
with surf likely exceeding High Surf Advisory thresholds for north
facing shores. This fetch will also favor harbor surges in north
facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo on Sunday. Additional
north-northeast swells will keep surf elevated along north facing
shores through early next week.

Light and variable winds will keep small surf along east facing
shores through Saturday. As the front moves across the islands
late Saturday into Sunday, winds will shift northeasterly and
increase in strength. This, combined with a large, moderate
period, north to north-northeast swell (010-030 degrees) will
bring elevated surf and choppy conditions to east facing shores
late Saturday through Monday. A High Surf Advisory may be needed
during the peak of the event.

A small, long period, south-southwest swell will keep surf heights
near seasonal normals along south facing shores through Saturday.
Several more similarly sized southerly swells will enter the
waters Sunday into early next week.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas during the daily peak
tide early Saturday morning. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in
effect through noon on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With light winds prevailing ahead of an approaching cold front
today into Saturday, critical fire weather concerns are not
expected. Additionally, increasing moisture is expected with the
frontal passage this weekend. Trades are forecast to return and
become breezy as the front moves through, then become breezy to
windy next week. However, it may be difficult to reach critical
relative humidity thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...Pierce/Wroe
MARINE...Ahue
FIRE WEATHER...Vaughan