218
FXHW60 PHFO 110132
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
332 PM HST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue this week,
becoming even stronger by mid-week, as strong high pressure
builds north of the islands. Clouds and showers will remain
focused over windward and mauka areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest surface analysis shows a 1031 mb high far north of the
Hawaiian Islands this afternoon. This is resulting in breezy to
strong trade winds blowing across the islands, with some of the
windier areas on the Big Island and Maui briefly exceeding wind
advisory criteria. Trades are expected to become even stronger by
Wednesday as the high is forecasted to build to around 1035 mb.
Confidence that more widespread areas will exceed wind advisory
criteria on Wednesday is increasing as this morning`s ASCAT pass
matched well with this morning`s model guidance...stay tuned for
further updates. Winds will weaken to moderate to breezy later
this week as the high weakens and moves northeast of the region.

Radar and satellite imagery continues to show clouds and passing
showers focused over windward and mauka areas this afternoon.
CIMSS PWATs show a slightly drier air mass over and upstream of
the area so not expecting a lot of showers across the region
tonight. Guidance continues to suggest an uptick in shower
activity on Wednesday as an area of moisture associated with a
dissipating front gets embedded in the trade wind flow. Expect
windward and mauka showers to continue through the rest of the
week.

A slightly drier air mass will keep dew points in the low to mid
60s through Tuesday making things feel cooler than normal.
Relative humidity may briefly fall below 50 percent on Tuesday
afternoon for isolated leeward areas, particularly across leeward
Big Island. Additional areas of moisture moving into the state
later this week will allow dew points to increase to the upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds are expected to continue tonight and into
tomorrow. Embedded clouds and showers in the trades will bring
MVFR conditions to windward and mountain areas. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for TEMPO mountain obscurations from
Oahu to Molokai. Conditions are expected to remain at least
through the evening as clouds and showers continue to impact
windward mountainous areas.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the
lee of the mountains of all islands due to the breezy trade winds.
This is expected to continue through tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to at times near gale trade winds will persist into
Thursday. A 1031 mb high centered about 750 nm north of the
islands is driving the strong trades. This feature will
consolidate with another, stronger surface high moving in from the
northwest during the next 24 hours and will produce winds at
current or slightly stronger levels Tuesday night through at
least Wednesday night. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) covering
all Hawaiian waters has been extended through Wednesday night. The
high will drift eastward and weaken on Thursday and Friday,
leading to a gradual decline in the trade winds. The SCA may be
needed for all waters during the day Thursday but should be
trimmed back to the typically windy waters around the Big Island
and Maui by Friday. Moderate to fresh trades are expected this
weekend.

The combination of a medium period north to north-northeast
(010-020 deg) swell and a short period north-northeast to
northeast (020-040 deg) swell will produce large and rough surf
above High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels along north and east shores
through Tuesday and will contribute to the need for an SCA due to
elevated seas above 10 feet. The north to north-northeast swell
is likely producing surges at north facing harbors, mainly at Hilo
and Kahului. A Marine Weather Statement highlighting this impact
has been extended through Tuesday. The north to north-northeast
swell will decline late Tuesday, and even as a long period
northwest swell builds in on Wednesday, north shore surf is
expected to be below the HSA threshold. The northwest swell will
lower through Friday, followed by another small to moderate
northwest swell Sunday.

As the current north swell fades late Tuesday, a large short-
period northeast (040-050 deg) swell of 10 to 12 feet at 10 to 11
seconds will persist due to a belt of near gale to gale force
northeast winds several hundred miles northeast of Hawaii. This
will keep rough east shore surf well above the HSA level and
possibly reaching High Surf Warning mark of 15 ft, with seas above
the SCA threshold through at least Wednesday night. As the
dominant swell direction becomes more northeasterly, the threat of
harbor surge will diminish. Expect the northeast swell energy to
lower as local trade winds begin to decline on Thursday, with east
shore surf steadily dropping on Friday and the weekend.

A small south swell is maintaining south shore surf near
summertime background levels. A slightly larger pulse may arrive
on Tuesday, peak on Wednesday and early Thursday, and then fade
by Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to locally strong trades will continue across the state
through the week. Relative humidity may briefly fall into the
upper 40s on Tuesday for isolated leeward areas, but low-level
moisture embedded within the trades should prevent this from being
widespread. Additional areas of moisture moving into the state
should help to keep relative humidity from reaching critical
thresholds for the remainder of the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Kauai East-East
Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast-
Molokai North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala-
Kipahulu-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Wroe
FIRE WEATHER...Ahue