524
FXHW60 PHFO 101322
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
322 AM HST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest surface winds will cover most islands today as winds
veer in advance of an approaching cold front. This cold front will
bring a band of moderate to heavy showers to Niihau/Kauai
tonight, to Oahu Thu morning, and to Maui County Thu afternoon
into Thu night. A more significant front will move into the state
early Sunday and linger for several days. This front has an even
higher potential for heavy rain.

&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and radar show light showers spread across the island
this morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will
become southwesterly over most areas this afternoon as they veer
in advance of an approaching cold front. This initial cold front
does not have strong support aloft, and will bring a band of
moderate to perhaps heavy showers to mainly the western end of the
state. Models have been consistent in showing the front reaching
Niihau and Kauai later today, then Oahu Thu morning, and likely
reaching Maui County Thu afternoon and evening. The front will
weaken further as it retreats to the northwest Friday and Friday
night.

Saturday will bring relatively light winds, resulting in a return
to sea- and land-breezes. Showers will be around, but the chance
for heavy rain will be down compared to Thu/Fri and Sun-Tue.

A more significant front will move back in from the northwest
Saturday night. Plenty of moisture will be drawn up from the
south and over much of the state as this front approaches. Models
have not converged on a solution concerning how far south and
east the front will make it, but the additional moisture from the
south, along with the stronger dynamics aloft, will result in a
heightened chance of significant rainfall for several days over
most if not all of the state. If the latest models runs are
supported by following runs, this risk may last well into next
week. This looks like it will be our first strong wet-season
system. Thunderstorms will most likely end up in the forecast for
Sunday and Monday and perhaps into Tuesday, but we are not
introducing them at this time as confidence on location and
timing is still too low.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate southwest winds will build west to east across
the state through the day. A few clouds and showers will track in
from the southwest flow as well as localized sea breezes and low
cloud build ups over the island interiors this afternoon. An
approaching front is expected to reach Kauai tonight, Oahu early
Thursday morning, and then slowly diminish over Maui County. Along
the front will bring periods of MVFR conditions with showers and
the potential for tempo mountain obscurations. Behind the front,
light to moderate northerly winds and VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southerly winds will hold today as a front approaches from
the northwest. The front will enter the Kauai waters late tonight
and move west to east across the state through Thursday before
stalling and dissipating around Maui County Thursday night. An
increase of showers are expected along and ahead of the front with
moderate northerly winds following behind it. Another front
approaching from the northwest will generate moderate southerly
winds this weekend with an increase of showers expected on Sunday.

A new moderate, long period northwest swell (320 degree) continues
to fill in 1 to 2 feet above guidance. A reinforcing north-
northwest swell (330 degree) is expected to fill in tonight and
peak Thursday morning, keeping surf elevated. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for seas building to 10 feet around Kauai
and windward Oahu waters as the current swell peaks later this
morning. A High Surf Advisory for select north and west facing
shores remains in effect through Thursday. These overlapping swells
will slowly decline Thursday night into the weekend. Another
moderate, long period northwest swell (320 degree) should
gradually fill in on Sunday and could produce surf near the
advisory threshold by Sunday evening.

Small, choppy east shore surf will become minimal over the next few
days as trades near and upstream become disrupted by approaching
fronts. Expect minimal background surf for south facing shores, with
a minor south-southwest pulse expected today into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions should remain below critical fire thresholds through
the week with light winds and elevated RH. Temperature inversion
heights should linger around 6,000 to 7,000 feet through tomorrow.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Almanza
FIRE WEATHER...Parker