895
FXHW60 PHFO 191948
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
948 AM HST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will push deep tropical
moisture over the state today. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will possible mainly along windward and mauka areas of Maui and
the Big Island this morning before spreading to the other islands
this afternoon. The chance of heavy rainfall will diminish later
today, but breezy and showery trades will persist through
Thursday. Mid level drying will limit clouds and showers Friday
into early next week. Easing trade winds over the weekend could
allow for more of a hybrid land/sea breeze pattern over the
weekend. Drier moderate trades should return Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made a quick update to the forecast to remove the mention of snow
on the Big Island summits today based on the latest observations.
Any precip that falls on the summits this afternoon with be rain
as temperatures climbed above freezing. However, guidance
continues to show deep tropical moisture lingering over the
summits through Thursday morning with temperatures falling to near
or below freezing tonight. As such, decided to extend the current
Winter Weather Advisory through noon on Thursday as the summits
will likely see a mix of rain and snow showers tonight, with a
slight chance of light freezing rain possible. /Ahue

Relevant portions of the previous discussion issued this morning
at 352 AM follows...So far overnight rainfall totals have been
modest with most rainfall located along windward and mauka areas
of Kauai, Maui and the Big Island ranging from .10 to .20 inches.
An extensive cloud deck and embedded showers which has remained
mostly off the eastern shores of the Big Island overnight and is
now moving onshore. Radar shows scattered moderate to locally
heavy showers moving along windward and mauka areas of Maui County
and Big Island. High resolution model guidance continues to show
of rainfall picking up through the morning hours as stronger trade
winds pushes a north to south orientated axis of moisture
westward. The main chance of locally heavy rainfall remains along
windward and mauka areas of Maui County and the Big Island. Some
locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour could produce
nuisance flooding but so far showers have been very small and
brief. The threat for heavy rain will decrease later today as
upper level instability shifts north and west of the state. Winds
will near advisory levels for the windier areas of Maui County and
the Big Island a high builds north of the state.

As for the rest of the state, scattered light to moderate showers
will mainly focus along the windward and mauka regions this
morning as trade wind speeds pick up. Inversion heights are
expected to increase throughout the day as the airmass becomes
more mixed, allowing showers to become more moderate and spilling
over to leeward areas at times. Locally heavy rainfall could be
possible later this afternoon into the evening hours.

The strong surface high passing north will maintain breezy trade
winds into Thursday. A band of low level clouds currently near
140W, is progged to move over the state during the day Thursday
keeping a rather cloudy and wet tradewind pattern in place.

Trade winds are expected to ease Friday into the weekend as a
front approaches the state from the far northwest. Mid level
drying should limit clouds and showers. A few high clouds may
remain as an upper level short wave trough passes north of the
state Friday. A hybrid trade wind and sea breeze pattern could
develop Saturday as winds relax allowing for clouds and showers to
develop along leeward and interior areas and low level moisture
from the dissipating front moves over the state. However, cloud
heights and showers will continue to be limited due to dry mid
levels. The greatest chance of showers will be around Big Island
where lingering moisture will be the deepest. Drier and more
stable conditions will fill in Sunday into early next week as mid
to upper level ridging builds over the state and moderate trades
return. /Almanza

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR to localized IFR along windward sections of Maui
and the Big Island this morning as breezy trades push a deep slug
of moisture onshore. Conditions likely to deteriorate further over
Windward Big Island through midday followed by improvement
tonight. Elsewhere, shallower and less organized shower activity
focuses over windward and mauka zones with little impact. 12z Hilo
sounding indicates a substantial dry layer within the potential
icing layer, but pockets of saturation remain possible with deeper
showers. As such, retained mention of tempo light icing in the
AIRMET Zulu section.

AIRMET Tango in effect for lee turb.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration in effect for Windward Maui
through Big Island.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong trade winds will continue through Thursday, then trend
down through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is out through
Thursday for contributions from both winds and seas. With the
swells and winds expected to taper off Thursday night and Friday,
the SCA will likely be paired back during this period, and then
dropping all together this weekend.

An overlapping north and northwest swell will bring advisory
conditions to north and west facing shores today through midday
Thursday. Most of the focus of the north swell will be directed
towards Niihau and Kauai. A High Surf Advisory has been posted for
Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai. Both swells will fall through the day
Thursday. Another northwest swell pushing surf back near the advisory
level Saturday.

East shore surf will be on the rise today and Thursday, primarily
from increased short period trade wind swell. Kauai and Niihau may get
some wrap around swell out of the north pushing surf heights just
below advisory level. East shore surf will decline through the weekend
as trades weaken over and upstream of the islands.

For south shores, tiny background south swell energy will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions not expected through the forecast
period. Periods of heavy rain remain possible over Maui County
and the Big Island through today. Gusty trades continue into
Thursday, with winds eases below critical thresholds thereafter.
Lingering moisture will keep relative humidities above critical
thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until noon HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Kauai North-Molokai
Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon HST Thursday for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue/Almanza
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza