334
FXHW60 PHFO 271254
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
254 AM HST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak winds due to a ridge of high pressure will continue into next
week. Stable air and relatively low inversion heights will help
keep the state fairly dry through the weekend and into early next
week. A front will approach the area in the middle of next week,
potentially bringing an increase in rainfall and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite images show mostly clear skies over the region.
Radar shows very few light showers, mainly over the eastern parts
of the Big Island and Maui.

Weak surface ridging extending in from the northeast will remain
over the islands through at least early next week. Both upper
level and surface troughing will stay well to our north. This will
leave us with weak southeast surface winds through Wednesday. It
looks like typical northeast to east trade winds will not be back
with us for quite a while. This weak southeast flow will allow for
sea and land breeze formation and above-normal cloudiness in
leeward areas. Showers will be scarce, with stable inversions down
in the 5000 to 6000 ft range. There will most likely be a few
light showers, favoring the eastern and southeast side of the
highest peaks. Vog from the recent eruption of Kilauea will
persist over much of the area in coming days, and we continue to
carry this in the forecast with the working of haze.

Latest guidance suggests that the approach of an upper level
trough next week will come later than earlier runs, so we now
expect it to come near the western end of the state towards the
middle of next week. It does not appear that it will reach us, but
could lead to increased low level moisture after Tuesday. As
always, later runs will shed more light on things.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light east to southeast winds will be with us for
the foreseeable future. Land and sea breezes will continue to
bring interior clouds in the afternoons, with few showers
expected. No AIRMETs in effect or expected across Hawaii today.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge, parked just north of the state, will allow for
mainly gentle to moderate east to east-southeast flow across the
waters through the end of this week. Winds are forecast to ramp up
a bit for the typical windy areas around Maui and the Big Island
Friday. Waters located in the lee of the islands will be more
sheltered, and thus lighter flow with a nocturnally driven
land/sea breeze pattern close to the coasts. Similar conditions
will prevail through the weekend as a frontal system stalls north
and west of the islands.

The current large long-period northwest swell will peak this evening
then gradually decline over the next few days. A reinforcing
northwest to north-northwest swell generated by a compact low
passing north of the islands today should arrive tonight and
could help maintain advisory level surf through parts of the day
Friday. The current High Surf Advisory is in effect through early
Friday morning for select north and west facing shores, but that
may need to be extended depending on this reinforcing swell. With
offshore buoy readings staying near or just below 10 feet with the
current swell, we have held off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) for our local waters exposed to the northwest swell.

Over the next few days, models rapidly deepen a low in the north
Pacific, roughly 1,500 to 2,000 nm northwest of Kauai. A significant
fetch of gale to storm force winds associated with this low will be
pointed down the great circle route towards the island chain and
will produce XL surf late this weekend. Long-period forerunners
should start arriving around mid-day Saturday, then quickly ramp
up Saturday evening into the night. The peak of the event
currently appears to be Saturday night into Sunday with the
potential for giant surf (40 to 50 feet) along north facing shores
Saturday night into Sunday out of the 300-320 degree swell
direction. Surf heights will easily exceed High Surf Warning
thresholds for select north and west facing shores, in addition to
a SCA for rough seas.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the weekend
due to the lighter winds. Select south facing shores could see some
westerly wrap from the extra large northwest swell on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Even though we will see relative humidity levels fall heading into
the weekend, weak winds will preclude reaching critical fire
weather conditions for the next few days. Temperature inversion
heights near Big Island and Maui will range between 5,000 to 6,000
feet.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Parker