890
FXHW60 PHFO 071358
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
358 AM HST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds are expected across the state today as a front
approaches from the northwest, allowing for sea breeze development
and limited shower activity over leeward and interior areas. The
front will move north to south across the islands chain this
weekend into early next week, bringing increased rainfall that
will be primarily focused along windward slopes. Breezy to windy
trades will follow the front, persisting through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and infrared satellite imagery show some layered
high clouds continuing to stream over the islands, with very
sparse low cloud and shower coverage across the island chain.
These upper-level clouds, tied to jet dynamics aloft, are expected
to taper off later today. The trade winds have been mostly cut
off thanks to a broad low pressure system to the northeast and its
associated cold front approaching the state from the north. In
this lighter flow, sea breezes will likely form, bringing low
clouds and isolated to scattered showers to island interiors as
well as along any weak convergent boundaries. Despite the slight
weakening of the mid level ridge over the region, generally stable
conditions will remain in place in advance of the front`s arrival
in Hawaii, so any showers that do form will likely be light.

The latest model guidance has come into better agreement on the
pattern for this weekend and into next week, gradually increasing
forecast confidence. The aforementioned cold front is expected to
approach the western end of the state on Saturday and pass over
the eastern end by sometime on Sunday. Light winds can be expected
to prevail ahead of the front with breezy to windy east-
northeasterly winds in its wake. Modest low level moisture pooling
ahead of and along this boundary will increase rain chances as
the front progresses down the island chain, but with mid level
ridging still in place, rainfall rates should be limited. The
relatively quick-moving nature of the front will serve as an
additional limiting factor for flooding concerns.

Breezy to windy east-northeasterly trades will become established
across the state early next week as high pressure builds to the
north. Another reinforcing front with an even stronger high
pressure system (1036 mb) will arrive midweek, providing another
boost in the east-northeasterly trades. With mid level ridging
persisting over the region, inversion heights will remain low,
keeping the moisture confined to lower levels and focusing clouds
and showers over windward and mauka areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds are expected today, allowing for daytime
sea breezes as light background winds shift out of the north
around Kauai and Oahu. The atmosphere will remain stable, and
aside from isolated MVFR ceilings over interior terrain, VFR
conditions will prevail. A cold front will approach Kauai by
Saturday morning, bringing breezy to windy northeasterly winds and
increasing shower coverage near the frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Flow will become light and variable today as an area of low
pressure moves north of the Hawaiian Islands and an associated
cold front approaches from the northwest. The front is forecast to
pass across the island chain late Saturday into Sunday. Behind
the front, expect fresh to locally strong north northeast trades
to fill in. These winds should last into early to mid next week as
high pressure builds north of the state. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed during this time.

The current small to moderate, medium period, northwest swell (320-330)
will slowly subside through early Saturday and keep surf size near
seasonal normals along north facing shores. A deep low pressure
system can be noted on last nights ASCAT pass well north of the
state with a north to south fetch pointed directly towards the
islands. This low will generate a large, short to medium period,
northerly swell that will help to bump surf heights up late
Saturday into Sunday that will likely exceed the High Surf
Advisory threshold for north facing shores. This fetch will also
favor harbor surges in N facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo
on Sunday. Additional north northeast swell should continue
elevated swell conditions along north and east facing beaches
through early next week.

Surf will remain small along east facing shores today as trade
flow weakens to light and variable. As a front presses southward
across the island chain Saturday into Sunday, winds will shift
northeasterly and increase in strength. This, combined with a
large, moderate period, north or north northeast swell will bring
high surf and choppy conditions to east facing shores late
Saturday through Monday. A High Surf Advisory will likely be
needed during the peak of the event.

A small, long period, south southwest swell will boost surf
heights later today into Saturday to near seasonal normals along
south facing shores. Several more similarly sized southerly swell
will enter the waters Sunday into early next week.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas for the next several
mornings. Thus, the Coastal Flood Statement has been extended
through noon on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With light winds prevailing ahead of an approaching cold front
today into Saturday, critical fire weather concerns are not
expected. Additionally, increasing moisture is expected with the
frontal passage this weekend. Trades are forecast to return and
become breezy to windy throughout the week next week, though it
may be difficult to reach critical relative humidity thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Farris