823
FXHW60 PHFO 101326
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 AM HST Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of showery clouds south of Oahu will move northward today,
and could bring a thunderstorm or to the waters south of Kauai and
Oahu. Light wind flow will allow a land and sea breezes pattern
to dominate with possible light trades building late this
weekend. Winds shift out of the east-southeast next week with a
wet and unstable pattern setting up over the islands by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have made some changes to the forecast both in the short and long
term. Largely the changes bring the forecast in line with the
latest National Blend of Models. In the short term, the main
change was adding the chance for thunderstorms over the coastal
waters south and west of Oahu today and into tonight, and to boost
PoPs in that general area and over Oahu.

A low pressure system far north of Oahu, combined with its
associated trough, will continue to bring a light wind flow
pattern to the area through much of the weekend. As these
features weaken later today and tomorrow, an uptick in winds is
likely starting on the eastern end of the state and progressing
westward. With the lighter winds, we likely continue to see land
and sea breezes over the western end of the state, with some areas
of of the eastern end also experiencing them.

An area of showery clouds south of Oahu is expected to move
northward today, and there is the chance for a thunderstorm or
two. Have added this to the forecast grids, but have limited the
possiblity to the coastal waters only.

As mentioned above, as the low weakens, some moderate trade winds
will filter back into the islands from south to north across the
island chain, possibly late this weekend. An upper low digging
southward, will position itself just west of the state by the
middle of next week. The upper low will induce a surface trough
that will veer and strengthen winds out of the east southeast
beginning Monday night and continuing over the next several days
after that, putting the islands in a relatively unstable and wet
weather pattern. East southeast winds will focus clouds and
scattered showers over windward and southeastern sides of the
islands. Will be monitoring the model depiction of the event over
the coming days for more specifics.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light south to southeast winds will continue today for the
western half of the state while slightly stronger winds are
likely for the eastern half. Expect land breezes this morning to
give way to afternoon seabreezes over the western half of the
state, and more sheltered areas for the eastern half by this
afternono. An area of showery clouds south of Oahu are expected to
move northward, and may be unstable enough to trigger a
thunderstorm or two over the waters. Most sites will see VFR
conditions, but MVFR and isolated IFR in showers is to be expected.

No AIRMETs in effect at this time. As mentioned above, depending
on shower activity, AIRMET SIERRA may be needed.


&&

.MARINE...
A troughing pattern will continue to weaken trade winds near
Hawaiian waters into early next week. An upper level disturbance
lingering north of the island chain will bring periods of
enhanced showers through the weekend. Weaker trade wind speeds
will allow for daytime onshore sea breezes to continue along
nearshore leeward coastal waters lasting into Saturday.
Long range guidance shows increasing southeasterly winds by the
middle of next week in an unstable weather pattern with the
potential for increasing shower coverage and thunderstorms.

A mix of a small medium period northwest (330 deg) swell and a
small, short period north northeast (020 deg) swell will maintain
small surf along north facing shores through Saturday. The
smaller forerunners of a moderate to large long period northwest
(320 deg) swell will build into Hawaiian waters starting Sunday
afternoon, this swell energy will continue to build overnight
before peaking to High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels by Monday. The
swell should hold at HSA levels through Tuesday before slowly
decreasing below HSA levels from Wednesday onward. Predicting
slightly higher swell heights than the latest swell model
guidance indicates, as recent swell model forecasts were too low
as compared to nearshore ground truth buoy observations.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the
weekend with a series of background south and southwest swells.
East facing shores will remain tiny to small through Friday. In
addition, a small, medium to long period easterly swell from
Tropical Cyclone Priscilla in the East Pacific is forecast to
arrive late Saturday into Sunday.

Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to
minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal
areas during the peak high tide this morning. A Coastal Flood
Statement remains in effect for all coastal areas today, and this
statement will likely be cancelled later this morning following
the peak high tide cycle.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak winds and continued isolated to scattered showers will help
mitigate fire weather concerns for the next several days.
Inversion heights across the state will range from as low as 5,000
to as high as 9,000 feet.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...M Ballard