648
FXHW60 PHFO 230138
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
338 PM HST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will persist through the rest of the weekend
and into the first half of the week. Showers will remain
focused primarily over windward and mauka areas. An upper-level
trough will move nearby on Sunday, which could briefly enhance
shower coverage. Shower chances will then decrease through the
first half of the week, before potentially increasing again near
the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Locally breezy easterly trade winds that have prevailed over the
past couple of days will decrease in intensity to moderate speeds
this evening, then persist at moderate speeds through the first
half of the week as a broad area of high pressure far northeast of
the state slightly weakens and drifts eastward. Meanwhile, latest
satellite and radar imagery shows that most low clouds and
showers are favoring windward areas, in addition to the typical
afternoon cloud buildups and showers along the Kona slopes of the
Big Island. Notably, however, the slightly east-southeast flow
today has resulted in some showers spilling into traditionally
leeward locations at times, such as portions of Honolulu.

Latest model guidance shows a quick moving upper-level trough passing
over the islands late tonight through Sunday. This will serve to
briefly introduce instability into the region, though is not
expected to have a significant impact on weather across the
islands. With that said, it could trigger a few afternoon showers
on Sunday across some leeward and interior areas, as well as
increase cloud coverage throughout the day.

Following this upper-level trough, weak ridging will build back
into the area, maintaining moderate trades through much of the
week. Showers will generally favor windward and mauka sections of
the islands throughout this time, though pockets of drier air will
move into the region throughout the week creating small day-to-
day variations in windward and mauka shower coverage.

Later in the week, model guidance shows another upper-level trough
making its way across the region, though there remain significant
timing differences (for example, the ECMWF offers an earlier,
quicker solution than the latest GFS). Initial indications are
that impacts will be limited with this upper trough as well,
though confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades have given rise to expanding sea breezes this
afternoon and winds veering to ESE over coastal sections of
Leeward Oahu. With little to no change in the background gradient,
a similar outcome can be expected for Sunday. Trades deliver
clouds and limited showers windward and mauka through the period.
Isolated MVFR will be possible, but VFR prevails.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of Hawaii will weaken and drift to
the east through tonight, leading to a decrease in trade winds.
Gentle to locally fresh trades will prevail Sunday through
Thursday as a surface ridge sits several hundred miles north of
the islands. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled
for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui,
though winds in these areas will be at borderline SCA strength
into Monday. Easterly winds across all waters will be slightly
weaker on Tuesday as the ridge to the north is disrupted by a
passing North Pacific front.

A series of large northwest swells will produce periods of
elevated surf this week. Forerunners of the latest swell from 310
to 320 degrees arrived at NOAA buoy 51001 around midnight and
peaked a couple of feet above guidance at around 9 feet 16
seconds this morning. Surf will continue to rise and will peak
well above the High Surf Advisory (HSA) level along north and
exposed west facing shores from Kauai to Maui late this afternoon
and evening. Surf will begin a slow decline late tonight and
should drop below HSA levels by Sunday afternoon. North shore
surf will be well below seasonal average by Monday, and the swell
will fade as it shifts out of the north-northwest on Tuesday. A
potentially larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday
and peak into Thanksgiving day. This swell will decline Friday
and Saturday, though there are high odds for a larger west-
northwest swell later next weekend.

As trade winds drop a notch over the next couple of days, surf
along east facing shores will decline and will be well below
seasonal average through much the coming week. A small south-
southeast swell will fade on Sunday, and south shore surf will be
tiny through much of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected throughout the
next few days as trade winds trend slightly downward. Relative
humidity levels could briefly decrease early in the week as
pockets of drier air move through, but wind speeds are expected
to stay below critical thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for north and west facing
shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and for north facing
shores of Maui.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Wroe
FIRE WEATHER...Vaughan