Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
269 FXHW60 PHFO 131316 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 316 AM HST Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-level low centered several hundred miles north of the state will continue to move south through midweek, then weaken and slide off to the west. This will bring a chance for heavier showers and a few thunderstorms from Wednesday into Friday evening. Relatively light southeast surface winds continue through Tuesday, with stronger trades kicking in Wednesday into lasting into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Currently we have some isolated showers moving across the islands. A few low clouds are hanging around where there are showers with some upper level clouds associated with a jet that is moving out of the area. Expect winds to remain light today. A strong upper level low will continue to move south through Wednesday afternoon, reaching the western end of the state (roughly centered overhead) before moving to the west and weakening late this week and into the weekend. This will bring cooler air aloft, increase instability and the chance for stronger showers and a few thunderstorms. With confidence increasing thunderstorms have been introduced into the forecast. The most likely area is the western part of the state, but we can`t rule out storms in the east at this time. The other significant change this coming week will be the surface winds. Relatively light southeast winds will give way to easterly trades Wednesday. Wind speeds will increase, especially in the usual windy areas. && .AVIATION... Another day of light winds and daytime sea breezes is expected today. Low cigs and a few SHRA can be expected across leeward and interior locations. MVFR conds possible but VFR will prevail. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... A trough will linger north of Hawaii resulting in light east to southeast winds across the state. The trough will fade while high pressure builds far to the northeast Tuesday night with trade winds building in for the rest of the week. An upper low will also track over the islands beginning around Tuesday night resulting in possible thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. A long period northwest swell has arrived and will peak tonight. A High Surf Advisory is now posted for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and north facing shores of Maui through Tuesday. Surf will drop off Tuesday night through Thursday. Small, medium period south swell will continue through the week with minor pulses of longer periods arrive tonight and again on Saturday. East shores will remain small due to light winds, but should begin to increase beginning Wednesday as trades strengthen. There may be some minor flooding within low laying areas during high tide this morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Light winds and isolated to scattered showers will help maintain fire weather below critical thresholds for the next several days. Inversion heights will range from 6,000 to 7,000 feet. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Foster FIRE WEATHER...Walsh