Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
796 FXUS64 KHGX 090720 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 120 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures are expected again tonight into Tuesday morning with a light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods, more likely in Houston County than elsewhere in the area. - Look for a gradual warming trend through the rest of the week, though a weak cold front on late Wednesday/early Thursday will briefly pause that warmup. Still, by Friday we can expect temperatures to approach 80F. - Though there is less confidence in the details of how it will play out, we can expect another frontal passage this weekend. Keep up with the latest information through the week on how this front can be expected to unfold! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The early morning hours look to repeat the cold we saw the previous morning, with lows in the 30s and lower 40s across the area. Fortunately, while cold, the area impacted by sub-freezing temperatures looks to be pretty limited. NBM probabilities for a light freeze look to be largely contained to Houston County in our area, though localized cold spots north and northwest of the Houston metro may briefly dip to or just below the freezing mark here and there. Today will continue to be a boon to those who prefer it chilly (and/or prefer chili!) as highs will be warmer, but only modestly so. Forecast highs around the area are quite close to average for early December. For the rest of the week, the general theme will be one of gradual warming, but it should not be dramatically quick or large. Ensemble mean 850 temps continue to be in the muddled middle below the 90th percentile even at our warmest. The warmup will most certainly not be aided by a weak cold front making its way through the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The impact of this front will be relatively minimal, though - more just a speed bump in the gradual warming trend than a real step backwards in temps. By Friday, we`re still looking for highs to reach into the upper 70s to around 80 for all but the coolest spots. Similarly, while PoPs will be non-zero with this front, even a light shower will be very difficult to squeeze out - heck, even getting enough deep moisture in place to get a mostly cloudy sky would be an achievement for this front! What looks more significant is a front slated to arrive sometime this weekend. It is difficult to parse for details due to spread in the numerical guidance, but this will be our next chance for the return of showers and some storms. For now, I keep light, scattered showers from isentropic upglide through the weekend, and hold off higher rain chances until Monday/Tuesday, keeping in line with a slower frontal timing. However, this potential could easily slide up into the weekend. Similarly, the quality of moisture return will impact expectations for how far inland the higher chances of rain will get. For now - I mainly want to emphasize that this weekend into early next week will be a window for unsettled weather, and will effort to get more details out as we refine our expectations and build confidence through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure in the vicinity will keep light winds and VFR conditions in palace throughout the TAF period. Winds should shift SE on Tuesday. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Winds and seas are continuing to subside to more gentle conditions. Northeasterly winds continue into early Tuesday, with onshore flow returning for the afternoon. There is a small probability for patchy sea fog Tuesday night before a front moves through Wednesday night. A better potential for sea fog may come over the weekend ahead of the next front in the line - though there is not a lot of confidence in a specific scenario at this long range. At the coast, tides around or just below MLLW at times of low tide should be expected to persist through at least today. For the most part, while negative, the tides are not expected to reach thresholds associated with issues to shipping through the bays. One spot to watch more closely will be well up the Houston Ship Channel, as Manchester`s low tide on Tuesday may approach 1 foot below MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 46 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 49 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 63 57 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...03 MARINE...Luchs