183
FXUS64 KHGX 081859
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning with a light
  freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods.

- Warming trend through midweek is briefly halted by a weak cold
  front on late Wednesday/early Thursday, but expect temperatures
  to approach 80F on Friday.

- Chances for showers/storms return going into the weekend.

- We continue to monitor the potential for another cold front
  towards the end of the week, but uncertainty remains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The latest PETSS guidance now reflects water levels in Galveston
Bay dropping to near or below -1.0 ft MLLW during low tide this
afternoon prompting the issuance of a Low Water Advisory that is
in effect through 9 PM CST this evening.

Batiste

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Following Sunday`s cold front, it feels like December once again
as temperatures dropped into the 30s/40s areawide. Locations
across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods also received some patchy
frost on vehicles and roof tops. That`s the true winter-like
experience...or at least as close as we`ll get to that anytime
soon. With CAA prevailing throughout the day, we`ll only top out
in the upper 50s to low 60s. Drier air will continue to funnel
leading to the decrease of cloud cover throughout the day. Clear
skies will prevail going into tonight as winds become light with
surface high pressure moving in overhead. This brings us to my
favorite formula this time of the year! Clear skies + light winds
+ dry air (widespread dew points in the 30s) = max radiational
cooling. So, tonight into Tuesday morning will be the coldest
period of the forecast period with low temperatures ranging from
the low 30s to low 40s. Portions of the Piney Woods will likely
experience a brief, light freeze as well. Additionally, areas
north of I-10 may see another round of patchy frost on rooftops
and vehicles left outdoors, so be sure to take that into account
for your Tuesday morning commute.

Onshore flow returns by Tuesday afternoon leading to a warming trend
that takes us into the end of the work week. High temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s and then we peak into the 70s
Wednesday through Friday. There will be a brief halt to the warming
trend as a weak cold front pushes into the area (but likely not all
the way through) on late Wednesday/early Thursday. This will
reinforce drier air for most of the area and keep widespread low
temperatures in the 40s for another night (Wednesday night). That
front pushes back to the north as a warm front on Thursday, which
reignites our warming trend. High temperatures on Friday will be
well above normal with widespread temperatures in the upper 70s.
Isolated instances of spots reaching the 80F mark can`t be entirely
ruled out. This would put us in near record territory, but we`d need
to tack on a few more degrees to actually challenge record highs on
Friday.

Chances for showers and storms return going into the weekend as a
surface trough develops near the coast and pairs with passing
shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft. Rain chances will be mainly
relegated to locations along the coast and south of I-10. Speaking
of the weekend, there is quite a bit of social media buzz about
another round of cold temperatures. While this may be true for
portions of the eastern CONUS, let`s discuss this potential for
specifically Southeast TX. It`s important to note that there is a
lot of uncertainty with this next cold front. For instance,
majority of the latest deterministic guidance doesn`t bring a
front through here at all this weekend. That`s just one model
run though, so let`s take a look at ensemble guidance to see if
there`s any confidence in one solution over another.

Ensemble members in the GEFS have more solutions reflecting below
normal temperatures versus above normal. It`s the complete
opposite for the ECMWF ensemble with the vast majority of its
members reflecting above normal temperatures. The NBM reflects
uncertainty as well with a 15-20+ degree difference between the
upper and lower quartiles for max/min temperatures over the
weekend. A large interquartile range is indicative of a wide range
in model output, which is just a fancy way of saying that there`s
a lot of uncertainty. Upper level synoptic flow has the main jet
stream staying well to our northeast through the weekend. There is
a bit more of an amplified trough in the deterministic GFS, which
is why the front pushes through in that solution late in the
weekend. Even then, the bulk of the colder air stays well to our
north and east. All that to say, don`t place all of your stock
into one model solution...especially when it`s 5+ days out.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and continue through the
period. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming light and
variable overnight.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Winds and seas will continue to subside throughout the day, but
small craft should continue to exercise caution in the offshore Gulf
waters through the afternoon as sustained winds will persist in the
15-20 kt range. A lingering effect of these northerly winds and the
moon phase will lead to abnormally low water levels during low tide
this afternoon in both of the bays. The latest PETSS guidance shows
water levels reaching the -0.8 to -0.4 ft MLLW. Northeasterly winds
will prevail into Tuesday, then become southeasterly by Tuesday
afternoon. Winds become southwesterly going into midweek as a weak
frontal boundary pushes into the region. Additionally, there is
potential for another round of patchy fog around midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  34  64  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  39  64  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  61  56  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste