Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
804 FXUS64 KHGX 062334 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 534 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy, but dense, fog will be possible across much of the area tonight into Sunday morning. - Cold front moves through the area Sunday ushering in chillier weather to start the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. - Monitoring the potential for another cold front towards the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 After an abnormally warm November, we were practically begging for the weather to feel more like winter (well at least I was). We got what we asked for as most locations have not seen a temperature above 60F in the month of December...but that changes today. Sunshine finally returns today along with onshore flow leading to high temperatures finally making it back into the upper 60s/low 70s. Low level moisture is gradually increasing thanks to that onshore flow and with clear skies prevailing going into tonight alongside winds becoming light...the potential for fog is on the high side. This fog may become dense at times especially for areas near and south of I-10 going into Sunday morning. North of I-10, 925mb winds will be elevated which makes low stratus a more likely outcome. Intermittent periods of dense fog can`t be completely ruled out up there especially in the few hours before sunrise. Temperatures overnight will still be somewhat chilly, but they`ll be about 7-10F warmer compared to Friday night as low temperatures range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The warming trend continues going into Sunday as high temperatures peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will push through on Sunday afternoon though leading to a return of seasonal temperatures going into next week. This will be a mostly dry FROPA, but could see some showers along the frontal boundary as it pushes offshore. A light freeze will be possible on Sunday night and Monday night for portions of the Piney Woods with low temperatures in the low 30s. Elsewhere, expect low temperatures to range from the mid 30s to low 40s. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Expecting a warming trend through most of the work week as onshore flow returns on Tuesday. Widespread high temperatures in the 70s are expected by midweek. The end of the work week is a bit uncertain at the moment in relation to another potential cold front. The troughs depicted at both 500mb and 850mb look to remain to our north and east, so it`s a bit too early to lock one in. There is about a 20 degree spread between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the latest deterministic NBM run...so yeah! We`ll keep an eye on model trends over the next few days and see if they congeal on a particular solution. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 455 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light VRB winds expected through Sun morning. Cigs are expected to lower to IFR-MVFR tonight for much of SE Texas, with some sites possibly lowering to LIFR at times. Areas of patchy to dense fog is expected to develop tonight into Sun morning and will lead to visibilities of less than 1 mile during the overnight and early morning hours for several locations, to include IAH/HOU. Conditions will gradually improve after 14Z with most of the fog burning off shortly after that hour. Cigs will also lift gradually around that hour and are expected to scatter out by the afternoon hours as drier air moves in after the passage of a dry cold front. NW winds at 10-15kt will develop Sun afternoon/evening in the wake of the front and gusts could reach 20-25kt at times. Brief moments of llvl wind shear is also possible. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Lingering light showers will be possible over the Gulf waters through the overnight hours. Expect a gradual transition from easterly winds to southeasterly by late afternoon. With winds remaining light going into the overnight hours as moisture increases, patchy to areas of fog (dense at times) will be possible in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters late tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will push through by Sunday afternoon bringing moderate to strong northerly winds extending into Monday. Sustained winds will be in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to 30-35kt alongside rough bay waters and 6-9 ft seas. Mariners can expect a Small Craft Advisory to be in place Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. These elevated offshore winds may lead to abnormally low water levels during low tide cycles on Sunday and Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside going into midweek with the wind direction becoming easterly by Tuesday morning and southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. Winds increase to near caution flag territory around midweek and we`ll be monitoring the timing of the next cold front towards the end of the work week. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 52 69 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 55 73 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 72 49 60 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Batiste