Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
475 FXUS64 KHGX 221139 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 539 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak front passes offshore this morning with some drier air filtering into the region, albeit briefly. - Another system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. - Next front passes through Tuesday night bringing a return to seasonable temps for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A very diffuse front should move off the coast this morning and bring an end to scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and areas of fog. Temperatures will be slightly lower than they have been the past several days, but still above seasonable norms. That said, dewpoints and corresponding RH`s should be on a downward trend...at least into later on Sunday when southeast winds resume and begin drawing Gulf moisture back into the region. Upper low off the CA/Baja coast will lift into the Plains early next week. Looks like a similar trajectory of the last one, whereas though we`ll see some higher PW`s around the region, overall instability doesn`t look very impressive and the primary forcing/dynamics should be situated to our north. But with increasing large scale lift, we`re looking for a band of showers and isolated tstms make their way into the region Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Ridge gradually amplifies to our west and flow aloft will transition from the sw to the nw...which should allow the next cold front to push through Tuesday night into Wed morning...making way for nice Thanksgiving wx and temperatures closer, and probably even below, what would be expected this time of year. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A mix of LIFR-MVFR vis and/or cigs currently over all sites except CLL/UTS/GLS. The weak cold front is near IAH and will lead to SHRA/TSRA for sites at and south of IAH this morning and will dissipate around 18Z, although some iso storms could still linger near the coastal sites. Light N-NW winds currently over CLL/UTS/CXO, while the rest of the sites have light S-SW winds, but will gradually become N-NW as the front sags further southward today. Most sites should have N-NW winds by the 00Z timeframe. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A diffuse frontal boundary will push off the coast Saturday morning with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and patchy fog ending with the weak wind shift. Winds will swing back around to the southeast during the day Sunday...followed by increasing speeds and building seas into Monday night. May need some caution/advisory flags at times. The next weather system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region Monday night and Tuesday, but its associated cold front probably won`t push off the coast until early Wednesday morning. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 51 75 62 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 81 57 78 64 / 20 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 64 75 69 / 40 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...47