404
FXUS64 KHGX 261945
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger, gusty northeast winds from this morning and this
  afternoon are ushering in cooler conditions that will carry
  through the holiday. Expect a Thanksgiving with fair weather and
  temperatures very near or just slightly below average.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid
  air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms
  associated with our next front coming over the weekend.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front,
  opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston
  metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures
  reaching lows around or just below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

With last night`s reinforcing front, we now find ourselves in a
noticeably chillier airmass than we`ve had for much of November.
But, while the relative change is fairly large, we are coming down
from such a warm point that conditions will be pretty close to the
average numbers for late November. Though somewhat breezy to start
the day, winds will settle down into the evening and with
otherwise fair weather, I`m not sure one could ask for much more
in a holiday forecast. About the only thing that stands out to me
is that Thursday does look quite dry. So, if your cooking method
involves outdoor frying, smoking, or anything where you could set
something on fire...please don`t. Take the extra time to ensure
you are working in as clear a space as possible where stray
ignition sources can`t start a fire, and be particularly cautious
while you`re doing your work. Of course, on top of everything, be
sure you`re complying with all local burn restrictions and bans!

Come Friday, we`ll be looking for winds to swing around to being
more onshore, and with them coming up to around small craft
advisory level (oh yeah, there`s a marine section down there for
more on that if you`re interested!), we do look to get a decent
opportunity at moisture return, even though the time until the
arrival of our next front late Saturday will be pretty limited.
With the decently strong onshore flow, I do have dewpoints rising
from the 30s and 40s Friday evening to the middle 60s Saturday
afternoon.

Given the background drought conditions in the area, I`m hoping
this gets us right in that nice sweet spot where we get some solid
showers and storms around the area to help mitigate those issues,
while not getting so much rain that flooding issues swoop in.
Using 1.5 inch precipitable water as a rough proxy for the 90th
percentile in the area this time of year and a point where we`re
getting moisture levels that could focus us on excessive rain, we
are...getting uncomfortably close. It`s probably a good thing that
our time for moisture return is limited, as both the NAEFS and EPS
mean PWATs are in the 1.25-1.5 inch range across the area, with a
small patch of 90th percentile PWAT near the coast in both
ensemble systems. Along with that, there is a small signal for
high QPF in the EPS` Extreme Forecast Index on "Sunday" (6pm Sat
to 6 pm Sun), mostly coastward of I-10.

One nice thing, however, is that this system should be somewhat
progressive, and the quick motion would help argue against
excessive rainfall. So, ultimately, it`s a pretty mixed bag we`re
looking at right now. Solid inflow with efficient moisture return,
and a pretty clear opportunity for numerous showers and storms
ahead of and along a front this weekend. However, the time to
build moisture will be limited, with quicker storm motion. This is
something we`ll need to keep an eye on, particularly if the front
looks like its forward motion will break down, or if a broader
area of very anomalous moisture begins to emerge. WPC has a
marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) across the
area for this timeframe, which seems pretty reasonable given the
mixed signals happening right now.

And then, beyond the weekend storm potential, another thing to
watch will be temperatures as yet another shot of colder air fills
in behind the front to chill things down a little bit more. That
I`m pretty confident in talking about that. The precise
details...eh, I want to be a little more hand-wavey on. Diving
back into the ensemble data, the mean 850 temps still don`t fall
below the 10th percentile. The EFI does show a faint signal for
cold max temps, but just for the northernmost portions of the
area.

Now, with that said, there is still room to see temps fall, and
given that this time range is dominated by global models that may
fail to fully capture shallow cold airmasses, it`s worth checking
out these colder extremes. NBM`s tenth percentile for low temps
shows some lows around freezing near the banks of the Trinity up
in Houston County as early as Sunday morning. By mid-week, lows
even in the Houston core are down to around freezing, with lows in
the 20s for almost the entire rest of the area. I want to stress
again that this is plumbing down near the low extreme of the
distribution and a pretty unlikely scenario. I mention it here
because I suspect that if we`re hedging against the NBM, it is
more likely to be on the cold side of the deterministic numbers,
and in the worst case, some temps around freezing can`t be ruled
out anywhere in the area...except maybe Galveston Island. The big
question on this timeframe in the days to come, and what we`ll be
working to more confidently answer will be how much of the area
can confidently expect to see it get that cold? For now, if I had
to put a bet on something, I`d say freezing temps are most likely
to stay north of the Houston metro. But...everyone in SE Texas
should not get attached too strongly to a particular number yet.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving, then afterward come back and see how the
forecast has evolved.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR through the end of the TAF period. NE winds at 10-15KTS with
gusts of around 25KTS expected this morning. Llvl wind shear will
be possible at times. Winds will be around 10KTS this afternoon,
then relax to around 5KTS tonight.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Gusty northeast winds to 20 to 25 knots with gusts of around 30
knots can be expected to continue through today along with higher
seas thanks to a surge of colder, drier air from the north. A
Small Craft Advisory is in place on the Gulf waters through
Wednesday evening, when winds and seas are anticipated to drop
below the advisory threshold. Conditions are not expected to
become calm, but low enough that an advisory will no longer be
needed...temporarily. At the end of the week, onshore winds
resume and an increase back to advisory-level winds and seas
appears likely for at least a portion of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  43  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  69  47  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  57  67  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Luchs