665
FXUS64 KHGX 271923
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
123 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northeast to winds will temperatures cooler through the holiday
  than earlier in the week. Expect a Thanksgiving with fair
  weather and temperatures near average.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid
  air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms
  associated with our next front coming over the weekend. There is
  a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours -
  roughly a 5-15 percent chance.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front,
  opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston
  metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures
  reaching lows around or just below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The forecast for the next week or so largely breaks into three
chunks - the nice part, the stormy part, and the chilly part.
The holiday, thankfully for travelers, falls squarely into the the
nice portion of the forecast. High pressure is making its way
gradually from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley, and
the main reflection of that in our weather is winds turning from
northeasterly to easterly (and eventually southeasterly...which
will begin our transition to the next section). We`re far enough
away from the center of the high that we`ve managed some scattered
to broken cloud cover over the area, but we`re still close enough
that is the extent of it, and conditions are quite fair.

Temperatures are cooler than we`ve seen for much of the fall, but
with a good bit of sun and located west of the main cold pool,
we`re still right around average. Yesterday ended up a bit warmer
than I anticipated - more right around 70 for much of the area
than the middle to upper 60s, so I`m keeping with the warmer of
NBM or persistence for both today and tomorrow across virtually
the entire area. The one exception is tomorrow`s highs way up
north (B/CS, Madisonville, Crockett, etc) as it looks like we
should get enough cloudiness to nudge highs back into the 60s.
But...if the clouds end up hanging out more to the north, they
would find themselves right back up around 70 again.

So, we started to hint at the transition to the next phase with
winds becoming southeasterly, particularly through the day Friday.
This is going to be some fairly stout onshore winds, which should
help build precipitable water values in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range
and bump dewpoints from around 30 degrees today into the 60s to
around 70 down by Matagorda Bay. These values are not necessarily
eye-popping compared to what we can get, and aren`t even all that
extreme for the time of year (below the 90th percentile), but it`s
still going to give us the moisture and instability to allow for
numerous showers and storms to crop up ahead of and along our
expected weekend cold front. The first rain chances creep into the
forecast as early as Friday night when a lead shortwave trough
passes through, but I`d be focused more on Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night. This will help us catch peak heating
(afternoon only, of course) and get a boost of mechanical lift
from the frontal surface. This is likely going to be important as
the upper trough supporting this trough does not dig very far
south, and so upper atmosphere dynamic support is going to be
fairly weak.

As a result of the somewhat mixed situation here, I`m not terribly
concerned about an organized severe storm or flooding event. But,
just because it`s not perfect doesn`t mean it`s trash, either. And
we`ll certainly have enough shear, instability, and moisture
pooling ahead of the front that we have some potential for them to
line up in a way to push the strongest storms over the edge. SPC
and WPC`s Day 3 outlooks paint our area in a 5-15 percent
neighborhood probability for a severe storm or excessive rain,
which seems pretty reasonable. Not a high chance, but not a zero
chance, either.

Finally, we move on to the chilly part of the forecast. Without a
prolonged stretch of onshore flow and heating time, we won`t have
the opportunity to get up to the near record high temps we`ve been
seeing much of the season. This sets us up to finally see a
stretch of weather that is decidedly below normal beginning on
Sunday. Look for highs in the lower 60s at the coast, in the 50s
inland, and those up in parts of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
may struggle to even reach 50 degrees - and those are the forecast
highs! As the lingering bit or warmer temps indicate, the front
does appear as if it will get a bit hung up over the coastal
waters on Sunday, and some lingering rain chances will hang with
us through Monday until a reinforcing front sweeps through Monday
night to really scour that moisture out and allow for things to
dry out into Tuesday and early Wednesday. The dip in rain
potential and cloud cover should allow for afternoon highs to
begin to rebound Tuesday slightly (though still chilly) but at the
same time will allow for overnight lows to really fall with a more
ideal radiational cooling environment. There`s still a fairly wide
spread in just how cold the models suggest we can get, but it
seems fairly high confidence to say at least a portion of the area
to see lows fall to around or below freezing Monday and Tuesday
night. Those north of the Houston metro are going to be most
likely to see temps that cold, and the places where freezing temps
tend to happen next is in the rural area well to the west of the
metro, so they should be watching the forecast closely as well.
But really, the chances for a light freeze are above zero across
the area, so it`s worth checking back periodically for the latest
expectations.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR with light northeast winds today, veering to the east Friday.
47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Winds today are in the process of veering through easterly to
southeasterly, and will be increasing in speed. The strengthening
winds will also result in building seas. Small craft should
exercise caution on the Gulf today and all coastal waters
overnight. A small craft advisory begins on the Gulf tomorrow
morning and expands to include the bays Friday afternoon, and
continues through Saturday in advance of an incoming cold front.
Periods of unsettled weather also return to the forecast late
Friday night, peaking Saturday night just before the front pushes
off the coast. Gusty north winds are anticipated in the wake of
the front, and another small craft advisory will likely be needed
for that period as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  67  56  73 /   0  10  50  70
Houston (IAH)  45  69  58  75 /   0   0  40  60
Galveston (GLS)  59  71  64  76 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight
     through Friday morning for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Luchs