Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
567 FXUS64 KHGX 181144 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 544 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm weather (near record temperatures) will persist through midweek. - Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis. - Rain chances remain minimal today, then increase Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A cold front is expected to reach the area late Thursday, bringing a stronger round of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1101 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Ridging aloft will keep warm and benign conditions though mid week with temperatures still 10-20 degrees above normal. Highs will still be in the upper 70s/80s with lows in the 60s/lower 70s. Rain chances remain slim for today, though the abundant moisture and light winds will be sufficient for patchy fog. Another round is expected early this morning, and once more overnight into Wednesday morning. A few dense pockets will be possible as well, especially at the typical fog-prone spots. An upper level low should swing through the Desert southwest on Wednesday. As it does, several weaker shortwaves & PVA impulses will pass out ahead of this trough. This will provide lift necessary for some scattered showers and storms during the day on Wednesday. Expect these rain chances to rise further Thursday as a cold front approaches SE Texas. The FROPA itself appear to be more "messy" compared to the "clean" & faster scenarios some guidance showed in days prior. Best timing has it progged to enter SE Texas as early as Thursday evening, due to a shortwave spanning Central/Deep South Texas ahead of the main trough. The front then slows down over SE Texas, before the main upper level trough passes east of the state, forcing the front off the coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning. The greatest forcing and lift seems to occur with the initial shortwave from Thursday evening into Friday morning. LREF still shows bulk shear around 40-50 knots, though instability remains lack- luster, generally under 1200 J/KG. Could get a stronger storm or two, though the severe weather risk is rather low at this point. Still, we`ll have PWs of at least 1.3" during the day, up to around 1.7-1.9" in the evening as this disturbance moves through the area. Currently WPC has areas northwest of the US-59 Corridor under a Marginal (level 1/5) to Slight (level 2/5) Risk of Excessive Rainfall during this period. Rainfall totals over this area are forecasted to range from around 0.5-1.0 inch(es), though isolated higher totals up to 3 inches cannot be ruled out. 3-hr Flash Flood Guidance over SE Texas is around 4-6 inches, though the 1-hr FFG is just a tad above 3 inches in some places within the outlooked area. With that in mind, it`s possible that we`ll see some minor street flooding & ponding on roadways, mainly in more urban areas with poor drainage. Saturday has trended drier as models show a tad higher confidence in the front being off the coast by this point (though it could stall offshore). Deterministic models show the better portion of Sunday being drier too, though onshore flow is slated to make a return in the evening. Models are out of phase again at this point, making it hard to give specifics for Monday, but on the whole it appears to be warmer and wetter with a warm front moving onshore & lifting north. Long range ensembles are still pinging at a more significant cool- down around/after Thanksgiving, though that`s about as much that could be said about it this far out. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Mix of stratus and fog bringing IFR to low MVFR conditions from roughly northwest of LFK-CXO-VCT again early this morning, with clearer sky but still some patchy fog coastward. Toplines do best to line up with obs and recent satellite trends, most notably to be a little more optimistic at IAH. Prevailing is now VFR through the morning, but with stratus hanging out nearby on almost all sides, keep an MVFR TEMPO for brief CIGs. As with past days, VFR should emerge area-wide by late morning with S -> SE winds increasing to around 10 knots for the afternoon. Winds diminish after dark, with potential for degradation in flight conditions again overnight. With lighter winds, some guidance is getting quite aggressive with fog. For now, will align with more optimistic guidance and keep impacts more limited to higher MVFR, with only IFR TEMPOs at known problem sites CXO/SGR. This potential will need to be evaluated through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1101 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow can be expected throughout today. Patchy fog inland may spill into portions of the northern bays & upper ship channel during the late night and early morning hours through Wednesday. Caution flags may be needed for portions of Wednesday and Thursday. These higher winds and seas may also bring a high risk of rip currents along Gulf-Facing beaches. Rain chances will also be on the rise with isolated/scattered activity returning Wednesday, increasing into Thursday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will be a tad slow to move through the area, but should move off the coast late Friday night/early Saturday. Northerly winds and drier conditions briefly settle in behind the front, though some lingering showers will be possible over the weekend, should the front stall closer to shore. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 66 83 68 / 10 10 40 20 Houston (IAH) 86 68 84 68 / 0 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 71 80 71 / 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...03