117
FXUS64 KHGX 042336
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Rising moisture will reduced fire weather potential through the
  weekend, though continue to use caution when working with open
  flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots.

- A deep layer of moisture will result in increasing rain chances
  this weekend. Highest chances reside along the coast in
  association with the sea breeze.

- Small craft will need to exercise caution into the weekend in
  the bays due to increased winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory
  has been issued for the Gulf waters through Sunday morning due
  to expected frequent wind gusts up to 25kt and seas up to 6-8ft
  possible.

- Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an
  increased risk of rip currents this weekend. Increasing swells
  and winds may lead to minor coastal flooding at times of high
  tide.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

No significant chances to the forecast is expected, and the
forecast will largely be persistence through at least the first
half of the work week. Easterly flow ushering in slightly higher
moisture will help trigger afternoon showers south of I-10 (with
the greatest chances occurring offshore). A building ridge of high
pressure overhead will end up limiting shower and thunderstorms
development for much of the region next week, but the increase in
moisture and daytime heating will likely allow for at least an
isolated afternoon shower or storm along the coast. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s (with a few
spots west of Katy potentially reaching the mid-90s) and overnight
lows generally in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

The persistent, moderate onshore flow will lead to a couple of
hazards along area beaches through tomorrow. A Rip Current
Statement is in effect through Sunday night as there is a high
risk of strong rip currents. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been
issued through Sunday morning for the Barrier Islands as water
levels climb to around 3.6-4.0ft above Mean Low Low Water (MLLW).
Here are a few impacts we have seen during previous minor coastal
flooding events with similar conditions:
 - When water levels reach 3.7ft above MLLW, water may begin to reach
   Highway 87 at Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula, and on Beach
   Drive near Blue Water Highway in Surfside.
 - At 4.0ft above MLLW, minor low lying streets may begin on the
   West End of Galveston, Highway 124 between High Island and
   FM-1985 may begin to flood, and the lowest streets in Jamaica
   Beach may be begin to flood.

The coastal flood advisory may be extended into Sunday afternoon
if tides are higher than expected, but weakening onshore winds
will allow for lower water levels Sunday night into Monday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period. ESE
winds at 06-12 KTS through around 02Z today, then relaxing to
03-05 KTS for the rest of the overnight hours into early morning
Sun. Winds will turn E and strengthen again by mid to late
morning. Some sites may see gusts of around 16-20 KTS on occasion
during the afternoon to early evening hours. Low chances of rain
for much of the day, and if any showers do develop, the likely
locations for them would be near and along the sea/bay breeze.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the Gulf waters
into early Sunday morning due to easterly winds of 15-20kt and
frequent gusts to 25kt and seas 4-6ft with occasional seas to
6-8ft. Small craft may need to continue to exercise caution
through the remainder of Sunday as the wave heights may be slow to
decrease. The persistent, moderate onshore flow has led to
increased water levels and risk of rip currents. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect through Sunday morning with tides running
around 3.6-4.0ft above MLLW.

Light easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through much
of next week with low seas. There will be a daily risk of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Fowler

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.

Improving moisture levels are anticipated going into the weekend,
with afternoon RH values ranging from 33-50 percent inland.
Observed 10 hour fuel moisture shows a few pockets below the 25th
percentile, forecasted to rise through the weekend. On the whole,
the fire weather danger should be mitigated by these conditions,
though caution should still be exercised when handling open flames
in any areas with particularly dry vegetation. Be mindful when
handling equipment that could create unintended sparks (i.e. loose
chains). Expect further improvement in conditions this weekend
into next week.

Adams/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  91  69  91 /   0  10  10  30
Houston (IAH)  71  90  74  90 /   0  10  20  40
Galveston (GLS)  76  84  77  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler