Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
368 FXUS64 KHGX 220650 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak front passes offshore this morning with some drier air filtering into the region, albeit briefly. - Another system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. - Next front passes through Tuesday night bringing a return to seasonable temps for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A very diffuse front should move off the coast this morning and bring an end to scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and areas of fog. Temperatures will be slightly lower than they have been the past several days, but still above seasonable norms. That said, dewpoints and corresponding RH`s should be on a downward trend...at least into later on Sunday when southeast winds resume and begin drawing Gulf moisture back into the region. Upper low off the CA/Baja coast will lift into the Plains early next week. Looks like a similar trajectory of the last one, whereas though we`ll see some higher PW`s around the region, overall instability doesn`t look very impressive and the primary forcing/dynamics should be situated to our north. But with increasing large scale lift, we`re looking for a band of showers and isolated tstms make their way into the region Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Ridge gradually amplifies to our west and flow aloft will transition from the sw to the nw...which should allow the next cold front to push through Tuesday night into Wed morning...making way for nice Thanksgiving wx and temperatures closer, and probably even below, what would be expected this time of year. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Scattered showers and isolated storms are currently moving towards the Houston metro area along a weak frontal boundary. This convection is expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours before regenerating again after 06Z. Ahead of the front, IFR to LIFR ceilings/visibility are expected to develop due to the increased low-level moisture and light/variable winds. The showers and isolated storms will initially redevelop near where it currently is now (around CXO/IAH) and gradually push southward through the morning. The main window for SHRA has been noted through TEMPO`s for IAH and terminals southward. After the front pushes through, northerly winds will prevail generally in the 7-12 kt range with ceilings/visibilities gradually improving. VFR conditions expected areawide by Saturday afternoon. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A diffuse frontal boundary will push off the coast Saturday morning with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and patchy fog ending with the weak wind shift. Winds will swing back around to the southeast during the day Sunday...followed by increasing speeds and building seas into Monday night. May need some caution/advisory flags at times. The next weather system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region Monday night and Tuesday, but its associated cold front probably won`t push off the coast until early Wednesday morning. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 51 75 62 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 81 57 78 64 / 20 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 64 75 69 / 40 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47