065
FXUS64 KHGX 071834
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moving through the area today ushering in chillier
  weather to start the work week.

- Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to
  30-35 kt expected this afternoon into Monday morning.

- Windy conditions along the coast later this afternoon into
  Monday morning behind the front leading to the issuance of a
  Wind Advisory.

- Warmer temperatures return by midweek, but we continue to
  monitor the potential for another cold front towards the end of
  the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

When I asked for a white Christmas...fog isn`t what I had in mind!
Before y`all say anything, yes I know it`s only December 7th, but
Christmas is a season so it counts! Widespread dense fog blanketed
Southeast TX this morning thanks to the return of plentiful low
level moisture through onshore flow. This onshore flow combined with
compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front will lead
to high temperatures today topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
850mb temperatures will reach near the 90th percentile this
afternoon mainly for areas south of I-10. That`ll be combined with
light southwesterly winds ahead of the front, which will lead those
high temperatures being 5-8 degrees above normal (mid 70s). So, this
will be our warmest day since Thanksgiving weekend. That`s just
about as much suspense as I can build before talking about today`s
cold front, which has already begun to push through portions of
the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. We can expect the cold
front to be off the coast later this afternoon (let`s say by
5-6pm), but we shouldn`t expect to see any rain along the frontal
boundary.

You`ll know when the front has pushed through by both the
increasing northerly winds and the clearing of cloud cover. Those
northerly winds will be howling overnight especially along the
coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory will go into effect this
evening for the barrier islands from 6pm Sunday through 6am
Monday. With wind gusts in the 30-35+ mph range overnight into
early Monday morning, please be sure to secure any outdoor holiday
decorations...it`s a little early for Santa to take flight. Now
let`s talk about exactly how cold we`ll get behind this front!
Some clouds will still linger especially east of I-45 tonight along
with those breezy northerly winds, so we`ll only see low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northerly winds stick
around into Monday as drier air continues to filter in. Expect
skies to become clear by the afternoon and winds becoming light
after sunset. Clear skies + light winds + dry air (dew points in
the 30s) = max radiational cooling. So, Monday night will be the
coldest night behind this front with low temperatures ranging from
the low 30s to low 40s. Some portions of the Piney Woods may see
a brief, light freeze. This will be the perfect opportunity to
break out your favorite striped sweater (but the real ones know
that the best time to wear one is all the time).

So, we`re warm today and chilly early next week...what`s next?!
Well, we`ll be back into the mid 70s by Wednesday with some areas
approaching the 80F mark on Thursday as onshore flow/WAA returns
on Tuesday. On Thursday, we`ll have southwesterly winds combined
with 850mb temperatures around or exceeding the 90th percentile,
so I bumped up temperatures just a bit. That warming trend
miiiight come to an end at the end of the work week with yet
another cold front. Wait...so over the span of just over a week
we`re going from cold to warm to cold to warm and maybe back to
cold again...snip snap, snip snap, snip snap! You have no idea
the physical toll all of these temperature swings have on a
person!

The end of the work week cold front still remains a bit
uncertain. Looking through ensemble guidance (both GEFS and
ECMWF), there is quite the spread in temperatures. Some ensemble
members say we`ll have low temperatures in the 30s/40s while
other members say we`ll be in the 60s. The count of members that
show below normal temperatures do outnumber those that show above
normal temperatures at the end of the week, but it`s not entirely
a slam dunk one way or the other at the moment. Even the spread
between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the
latest deterministic NBM run still spans 15-20+ degrees! A large
interquartile range is indicative of a wide range in model output,
which is just a fancy way of saying that uncertainty remains.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Frontal boundary working its way through the Brazos Valley.
CLL/UTS at MVFR as clouds linger behind the boundary. All other
sites at IFR/LIFR. Low CIGs and/or VSBYs will continue through
early afternoon for IAH/HOU/SGR and coastal terminals. VFR
conditions will follow the FROPA with the exception of a brief
period of MVFR CIGs between 00Z and 05Z. NW winds will develop
behind the front with gusts of 25-30 knots expected. Winds relax
early Monday morning.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Lingering cloud cover and decreased visibilities will stick around
through at least the mid afternoon hours. Light onshore flow will
also continue until a cold front pushes offshore later this
afternoon. This will bring an end to any lingering fog/mist as drier
air ushers in. Moderate to strong northerly winds will prevail in
the wake of the front through Monday morning leading to the issuance
of a Small Craft Advisory for the bays and the Gulf waters.
Sustained winds will be in the 20-25 kt range with gusts up to 30-35
kt alongside rough bay waters and 6-9 ft seas. Occasional gusts to
gale force will be possible in the offshore Gulf waters. These
elevated offshore winds may lead to abnormally low water levels
during the low tide cycle on Monday. Winds and seas gradually
subside on Monday with the wind direction becoming easterly by
Tuesday morning and southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. This may
result in fog development around midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  38  58  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  44  61  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  50  60  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste