482
FXUS64 KHGX 032307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Rising moisture will reduce fire weather danger today, though
  continue to use caution when working with open flames/equipment
  that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots.

- Rain chances rise into the weekend as moisture deepens enough to allow
  for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast.

- Small craft will need to exercise caution today into the weekend
  due to increased winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory has been
  issued for the waters off of Galveston Bay for this evening
  through Saturday afternoon due to expected frequent wind gusts
  up to 25kt and seas up to 6-8ft possible.

- Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an
  increased risk of rip currents this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

An easterly flow, thanks to a surface high pressure moving across
the East Coast, has developed across the region ushering in
slightly more moisture (as of Noon, the dew point temperatures are
running around 5 degrees higher currently than they were
yesterday). This slightly higher moisture combined with a weak
upper level low spinning over the north central Gulf will allow
for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to begin
today and remain possible through the start of next week. The best
chance for shower and thunderstorm activity will remain over the
coastal waters, but areas south of I-10 may see some scattered
activity during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. Areas
north of I-10 may see an isolated shower or storm as well, but
chances are quite low (10-20%). An upper-level ridge of high
pressure is expected to develop over Texas by midweek next week
which will hamper thunderstorm development, but daytime heating
and PWATs near 1.6-1.9" will likely be able to develop at least some
activity along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal through
next week with highs in the upper 80s to low or mid-90s, and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Planning on enjoying
this summer-like weather at the beach? Be aware that persistent,
moderate onshore flow will lead to an increased risk of rip
currents along Gulf-facing beaches.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Can`t rule out a brief shower at IAH/CXO/SGR in the next hour or
so with the combination of seabreeze and various outflows in the
vicinity. Otherwise, remnant precip should be decaying with the
loss of heating. VFR conditions and lighter winds anticipated
overnight, though could see localized 4-6sm br in the LBX area
later tonight. Saturday is shaping up similar to today...with some
sct clouds developing and easterly winds 8-18kt. There will be
some sct precip tracing along the coast, but not confident enough
to include in the TAFs for any specific point. Further inland, we
could end up seeing less activity than today. Looking at the GOES
PW loop, and fcst guidance, there is a nose of lower PW air
currently over northern LA that`ll be sliding sw into parts of the
area. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Update: expanded Small Craft Advisory into all Gulf waters as
winds have increased to 20-25kt.

Moderate easterly flow will continue through the weekend with
sustained winds of 15-25kt. This increase in winds will lead to
an increase in wave heights as well with seas of 4-6ft expected by
this evening and possibly some 6-8ft seas later Saturday. This
Advisory may need to be extended into Saturday night. The easterly
flow will persist into at least midweek next week, but is expected
to be lighter. The persistent onshore flow this weekend will lead
to elevated water levels (around 3.0-3.5ft above MLLW during
times of high tide) and an increase risk of rip currents.There
will be a daily chance through at least midweek next week of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the coastal
waters.

Adams/Fowler

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.

Improving moisture levels are anticipated today/this weekend, with
afternoon RH values ranging from 33-50 percent inland. Observed 10
hour fuel moisture shows a few pockets below the 25th percentile,
forecasted to rise today into the weekend. On the whole, the fire
weather danger should be mitigated by these conditions, though
caution should still be exercised when handling open flames in
any areas with particularly dry vegetation. Be mindful when
handling equipment that could create unintended sparks (i.e. loose
chains). Expect further improvement in conditions this weekend
into next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  91  66  91 /  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  70  91  72  91 /  10  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  77  86  77  86 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams