230
FXUS64 KHGX 011130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold, wet and rainy day is expected. Let`s be on the lookout
  for some heavy downpours at times...moreso between the I-10
  corridor and the coast. Ground is wet from Saturday nights
  rainfall, and any localized pockets of heavy rain will be more
  prone to runoff and cause some minor street and feeder road
  flooding.

- Hazardous marine conditions anticipated into Tuesday.

- Drier, fair weather is anticipated Tue-Wed, followed by another
  chance of rain Wed night into Thurs in association with another
  coastal low and incoming cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold temperatures expected tonight...however, overcast skies will
keep it from being the coldest night of the week...those nights
are up next! Lows for tonight into Monday morning will be in the
40s for much of the area, with a few locations along the coast
touching into the low 50s.

For Monday, 500mb showing a series of vort maximums traversing SE
Texas during the day, with a shortwave at the 700mb level, and
onshore flow at the 850mb level continuing to funnel in Gulf
moisture. Along with isentropic lifting, this setup will factor
into the potential for showers and thunderstorms during the day
tomorrow. Showers will start out light overnight. Coverage of
showers will increase during the day tomorrow with the approach of
the shortwave from the west. Rain is anticipated to move offshore
later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a reinforcing
front brings in a cooler and drier airmass.

Temperature wise Monday into Tuesday...consensus among my shift
partner and I is that model guidance is coming in a bit too warm
for this setup. Opted for a blend of previous forecast, CONSShort,
and NBM10. Probabilistically speaking, HREF and NBM had a low
(23-30%) chance of areas south of I-10 surpassing the 55F mark
tomorrow (areas close to I-10 and north were at a 0% probability).
With cloudy skies and rain expected for tomorrow, I would not be
surprised if temperatures turned out to be even a few degrees
cooler than what is forecast. Tuesday may be a bit more true to
the story with skies expected to clear out significantly and sun
able to contribute to the daytime highs.

Monday night and Tuesday night will be pretty brisk with
temperatures dropping into the low 30s to low 40s. The chance for
freezing temperatures increases further north across portions of
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.

Onshore winds resume Tuesday night and begin another round of
warming for the area...and as observed for the last couple of
weeks, the return of onshore flow will set the stage for yet
another chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the week.
Will refrain from getting too hung up on details with it being
later in the period, but in any case, looking like another wet
weekend for at least the coastal areas.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected today as rainfall develops
across the region. Heavy downpours are a possibility at times from
the metro area to the coast which could cause some reduced
visibility. Low end MVFR ceilings early this morning will likely
drop into IFR territory by mid morning with increasing rain
coverage. Cannot rule out LIFR at times near pockets of heavier
downpours (esp Hobby, Angleton, Galveston). Rain tapers off
early-mid evening followed by lifting ceilings from NW to SE.
Would anticipate most terminals be back to VFR by 9z or so. Mclr
skies anticipated Tue. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Gusty north to northeast are in place over the coastal waters
following yesterday`s frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect. Another upper level disturbance will move through
overnight and Monday bringing another round of rain and embedded
thunderstorms. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning as moderate to strong
northeasterly winds develop behind this exiting system.

At the coast, gusty offshore winds will likely result in some
negative tides for the next 2-3 low tide cycles for area ship
channels. For now, however, the winds do not look to push water
levels far enough below MLLW to reach thresholds for a low water
advisory.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  46  36  52  38 /  50  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  49  39  54  41 /  90  50   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  57  47  55  53 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey