Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
447 FXUS64 KHGX 030542 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant, dry weather is expected this week with slowly modifying cool overnight lows and warm daytime highs. - Next front is penciled in for sometime later this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 "Perfect" is a tough word to be able to use for any type of weather, as most every situation has pros and cons for different types of folks. But today might have been about as close to perfect as one could want. Highs in the lower to middle 70s, lows in the 50s, dry air but not exceptionally so...just nice conditions all around. We will increasingly drift away from that through the week as ridging aloft remains in control. The return of onshore flow by tomorrow afternoon will also gradually lift humidity and overnight lows, but while summerish afternoon highs return, we don`t look to quite match that in the humidity and lows...though by Friday it might start to get close, as dewpoints at the coast do get to around 70 degrees. Come the weekend, we`ll be hoping (okay, me - I`ll be hoping) for the expected cold front to take the edge off and bring us back to fall. For some idea of how the temps will trend through the week, we can look at some probabilities of hitting temp thresholds. Now, these are NBM probabilities which isn`t really a true probability. But with the meteorology involving perhaps an unseasonably strong ridge but not a wildly extreme one, it`s probably a pretty fair approximation. On Monday, the probability of hitting 85 degrees is less than 5 percent for all but the far western portion of our area in Colorado, western Wharton, and a sliver of Jackson county. By Wednesday, an 85+ high is more likely than not across the rural coastal plain west/southwest of the metro, and there`s at least a 5 percent probability for all but the immediate coast. By Friday, a high of at least 85 is more likely than not for a large majority of the area, and virtually certain for the entire coastal plain across the area. Matching up with that is the Euro ensemble`s extreme forecast index. There`s no signal for high-end heat until Thursday, when a suggestive 0.5-0.7 signal begins to emerge, with a more substantial 0.7-0.8 signal showing up for Friday. Overnight, anomalous heat is not quite as big a concern thanks to fairly light onshore flow until very late in the week. Probabilities for a 70+ low temp exist only at the immediate coast, and really only late in the week. Even stepping the threshold down to 65 degrees, most of the area doesn`t see the probability rise above 10 percent. At the very end/just beyond the end of the forecast period, we`ll be looking for our next front. There`s more time to work out the details on this, but at the very least, it will chop down the building heat before it gets too out of hand. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period as drier air persists in the wake of Saturday`s cold front. Winds will become light and variable after sunset, then pick up out of the east on Monday morning becoming east-southeast to southeast by the afternoon. Wind speeds will remain generally in the 5-10 kt range. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Light, mainly northeast winds early will transition to light onshore winds by Tuesday afternoon. Favorable marine weather conditions are anticipated for most of the work week with light onshore flow and relatively low seas prevailing. Higher winds and seas are not anticipated until a frontal passage over the weekend. Potential for rip currents and higher than average tidal levels will also begin to emerge late in the week as the onshore flow strengthens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 46 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 48 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 63 72 64 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Luchs