943
FXUS64 KHGX 191904
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
104 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth will continue areawide for the next few
  days.

- Rain chances increase late Thursday and Friday as the next
  weather system approaches from the west and drags a weak frontal
  boundary into the region. Rain chances linger into the weekend.

- Another system is expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm
  activity on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A mid/upper low over SW CONUS and NW Mexico will push eastward
as its structure transitions from a closed low to a negatively
tilted trough. A strong, diffluent southwesterly jet ahead of the
the low is evident over a large region spanning south-central
CONUS, SW CONUS, and much of northern Mexico. Plentiful mid/upper
moisture from the tropical / subtropical Pacific is being advected
north to northeast by the jet. This mid/upper level moisture
advection coupled with rising LL PWATs is resulting in an
increasingly moisture rich atmospheric profile. We are already
seeing isolated to widely scattered showers on radar this
afternoon. We suspect this shower activity will continue through
the day. However, many neighborhoods will remain dry. Lift and
sheer will gradually increase as the trough ejects east to
northeast, resulting in a corresponding increase in PoPs on
Thursday and especially Thursday night into Friday as a sfc front
pushes across the region. Given the shear and moisture
parameters, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out late Thursday through Friday, especially along the
weakening frontal boundary. That being said, the jet will be most
diffluent over central and northern Texas. Therefore, the best
chance of heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be north and west of our region. Best chance of
localized flash flooding in our region will be across our
northern counties. The front stalls and becomes increasingly
diffused over the weekend. However, it may provide enough lift for
some scattered activity on Saturday and maybe Sunday, especially
near where the front stalls.

Another mid/upper low/trough is expected to enter the picture late
Sunday into Monday. Current guidance suggest a similar set up,
with the heaviest weather to our north and west despite a decent
chance of scattered activity for SE Texas. A little too early to
assume that this second system will be just like the first. But
the signal suggests it will be similar. May have to keep an eye on
the rivers if enough rainfall occurs to our north. But the drought
conditions will be a mitigating factor.

Now let`s talk about temperatures. We are expecting near record
warmth areawide through Thursday, and across the southern half of
the CWA through Friday. This translates to highs well into the
80s. Coupled with the humidity, the air will entail a more
summer-like vibe. Warm, but not the near record warmth of late,
is expected Sunday and Monday, with most areas expected to be in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Beyond then, the pattern may go into
flux. Current large scale teleconnections are strongly supportive
of a warmer pattern. But those signals are expected to become more
mixed as we head into next week. In addition, global
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest the end of the current
split-flow jet pattern and the beginning of a more polar jet
dominant pattern. This would support stronger cold fronts pushing
southward into CONUS. Global models are hinting at a possible
strong cold front by the end of November or early December. But
the globals can be wrong. Generally speaking, I`d say the signals
are supportive of temperatures dropping to near normal (highs in
the 70s, lows in the 50s) by the middle of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Flight conditions degraded again this morning, but actually rather
a muddled mix rather than the widespread dense fog anticipated.
It is still mostly LIFR to IFR mixed between fog and low clouds,
but also a bit of MVFR here and there and even some VFR! As a
result, the next couple of hours will be frustrating as most sites
can probably be expected to bounce around a lot as the sun rises.
This TAF attempts to bracket best and worst case expectations,
but may still need to be amended to keep up with reality.

Conditions should improve through the morning, but likely at a
slower pace than past days with moisture pooling over the area,
keeping fog and stratus in place a bit longer. Eventually, though,
we should crack back to VFR area-wide with S-SE winds up around 10
knots at peak this afternoon. Anticipating isolated -SHRA with
all this moisture, but chances not high enough for any explicit
mentions save a PROB30 at CLL. If it happens elsewhere, it should
be extremely brief and light.

Tonight, as winds make their way back down to around 5 kts or less
for the night, we`ll see conditions degrade again with this mix of
stratus and fog. Starting with low MVFR-IFR for now, but potential
for LIFR again at the most significantly impacted terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Generally light to moderate onshore flow and 2-4 foot seas are
expected through the weekend. Winds could become more variable on
late Friday into Saturday if a frontal boundary makes it far
enough south. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible today and tomorrow, with a better chance on Friday and
Saturday as a weakening frontal boundary makes its closest
approach from the north. Onshore flow may increase enough to
warrant caution flags on Monday into early Tuesday ahead of the
next system that will bring another enhanced chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds are expected to shift northwesterly on
Tuesday as a cold front pushes offshore. At this time, the front
does not appear as strong as recent fronts that produced impactful
winds and seas. But we cannot rule out caution flag worthy winds
beyond the front on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  85  67  79 /  20  50  70  70
Houston (IAH)  69  85  70  85 /  10  20  30  60
Galveston (GLS)  71  78  71  80 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self