Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
538 FXUS64 KHGX 030537 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to slightly below freezing temperatures is possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. - Rain chances return Wednesday night through Friday due to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Another chilly night is expected across SE Texas with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures by daybreak will be in low to mid 40s along and south of I-10, and then mid to upper 30s north of I-10 with parts of the Piney Woods approaching freezing. We do warm up on Wednesday as southeasterly flow returns with high pressure sliding to the east. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 60s for much of the area, and into the upper 50s to low 60s in the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region. The southeasterly flow will not just usher in warmer temperatures, but also increase moisture across the area leading to increasing clouds during the day and then a return of rain chances as early as Wednesday evening with rain chances continuing for parts of the region through Friday. A weak coastal low is expected to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday. The model trend the past few runs has been for less rain coverage/intensity for our area, and shifting the heaviest of the rains either off shore or into LA - however we can still expect widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Also cannot out-rule some isolated locally heavy rainfall along and south of I-10. The passage of a weak cold front on Friday will begin to end the rainfall chances inland, but lingering moisture and passing upper level disturbances may lead to isolated coastal showers through the day on Friday and possibly into early Saturday morning. It won`t be until a reinforcing front pushes through this weekend that fully clears out the lingering moisture and ushering in a strong surface high pressure. Rain totals through Saturday morning will be generally up to 0.5 to 1" across much of the area, but isolated higher totals of 2-3" possible along the coast. And the majority of this rainfall will be falling late Wednesday night through Thursday. WPC does maintain a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall along the coast during this timeframe. Overcast skies and rainy conditions will keep us cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s, and then that passing cold front on Friday and continued cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the low to mid 50s during the day. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s north of I-10, and then mid 40s to low 50s south of I-10 to the coast. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions along with light VRB winds are expected tonight. Cigs will lower to MVFR on Wed and winds will turn E to SE and increase to 5-10KT. Some models show a weak llvl jet moving over SE TX in the afternoon and could lead to gusts of around 20KT at times. By the end of the TAF period, we may see some showers starting to develop inland. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise after 00-06Z Thu, thus expect the mention of SHRA/TSRA near the end of the next TAF period. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Light southeasterly winds will develop by daybreak Wednesday with winds increasing to around 15kt by Wednesday afternoon. A coastal low is expected to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing not only widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also moderate to strong northeasterly winds on the north side of the system. Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Thursday morning with northeasterly winds increasing to 15-25kt, and seas climbing to 4-6ft. The system will push to the east late Thursday into Friday leading to a lowering of the winds, but lingering moisture will lead to scattered shower activity through Saturday morning. Patchy fog will also be possible as the high moisture and lowering winds overlap. Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds will then persist through the weekend. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 36 61 51 54 / 0 20 70 50 Houston (IAH) 40 65 55 60 / 0 20 80 70 Galveston (GLS) 49 70 63 66 / 0 30 80 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Fowler