446
FXUS64 KHGX 081055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect another night and early morning of cautious driving with
  at least patchy fog across the area. Localized foggy spots may
  also see areas of more dense fog emerge, with visibility falling
  under a mile.

- A cold front will bring gusty winds and colder, much drier air in
  its wake Sunday and Monday. Some locations well north of the
  Houston metro could have their first light freeze of the season.
  Critical fire weather conditions may emerge over at least a
  portion of the area, especially on Sunday.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday into Monday. A
  Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal Gulf waters during
  this time, though it may converted into either a strong Small
  Craft Advisory or Gale Warning depending on how widespread and
  consistent gale conditions are expected to be.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas south of I-10
through 8 AM this morning. There is potential for this to be
expanded northward over the next couple of hours.

Batiste

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The weekend approaches, and so does a long-anticipated cold front.
Unlike the last couple of fronts, which brought at least some
scattered rain and storms (one a little more effectively than the
other), this front looks like it will functionally be a dry front,
with only some slight rain chances over the Gulf late tonight into
early Sunday morning.

But just because there are no storms on this front does not make
it uneventful! We have a Gale Watch out on the Gulf for strong
post-frontal winds that - depending on how widespread gale force
winds will be - may become either a strong small craft advisory or
a gale warning. More on that in the marine section below. But,
astute students of Great Lakes maritime history (or if you just
grew up there like me) and/or fans of Gordon Lightfoot will note
some irony in the timing of this gale watch. Though for us, that
front two weeks ago guaranteed that our Gales of November came so
early, it was actually October!

And where there`s strong northerly winds bringing in a colder,
much drier airmass, there`s fire weather concerns to follow!
Critically low humidity looks virtually certain, especially west
of the Houston metro. Gusty north winds are also likely, and we`ll
be on the lookout for where the driest air, strongest winds, and
dry vegetation manage to line up for any potential fire weather
watches and/or red flag warnings. Cooler temperatures and
vegetation that is not yet critically dry may help temper the fire
weather threat some. But even in a best case scenario, near
critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize
Sunday and Monday, so it will be important to use great caution
with flame and sparks or avoid their use entirely, and to strongly
adhere to local burn bans in place. More on that in the fire
weather section below.

As for the more general parts of the forecast, with no real rain
potential out there, the big star of the show will be the
temperatures, especially through the next 72-84 hours. The word of
the day with this forecast is "whiplash". The tables of ensemble
data highlighting standout features really light up and in a bunch
of different colors right next to each other! Both the NAEFS and
Euro ensemble mean 850 temps go from above the 99th percentile
through today, to down below the 3rd percentile by Sunday evening!
Then, as if that isn`t enough, both systems do bring those 850
temps back above the 90th percentile at some point next week,
though the exact timeframe still differs pretty widely. But, it`s
probably safe to say that the cold post-frontal temps are not
expected to stick around very long.

To match that, the Euro Extreme Forecast Index is lit up for
temperatures every single day - first for unusually warm
temps today...then for unusually cold temps, mostly for
Monday...then right back to warm temps for the second half of next
week. I don`t currently have any record temps - high or low -
forecast explicitly, but we will at least be close to record highs
again this afternoon. Now, while we may not necessarily still be
looking for record lows behind this front, it should still safely
be the coldest airmass of the fall so far, and we may see our
first light freezes creep in up north. So...Houston the county,
yes be on the lookout, Houston the city, you`re still safe.

Sunday night into Monday morning, look for chances of reaching
freezing around the 1 in 4 area in Trinity and Polk counties, and
around or even above 1 in 3 for Madison and Houston counties.
Monday night into Tuesday morning looks even chillier -
probabilities of freezing temps are 40 percent and higher in all
of those locations, and more likely than not in large swaths of
Houston County. Lower chances, 20-40 percent, also begin to emerge
in smaller portions of Walker, San Jacinto, and northern Liberty
counties. If you`re living north of the Houston metro,
particularly in more rural locations, and have vulnerabilities to
freezing temps (remember those Ps - people, pets, pipes, and
plants!) you`ll want to be keeping a close eye on the temperature
forecast early next week. Even those in rural locations all the
way down to I-10 may want to pay attention, as a non-zero chance
of freezing temps does exist that far south outside of the Houston
heat island. They chances may be low, 10-20 percent, but they do
still exist!

Beyond our brief spat of cold weather, confidence is very high
that we will see a warming trend into the latter portions of the
week. What is less confident is just how quickly that will be.
NAEFS 850 temps suggest it could happen quite quickly, with 90th
percentile values at 850 emerging as early as late Tuesday night.
The Euro Ensemble takes things more slowly, but still has 90th
percentile 850 temps by Friday morning. For now, I mostly am
rolling with straight NBM here while the guidance has such wide
differences in timing. The trend is there at least - it will get
warmer - we`ll just have to parse out how quick it will be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 455 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Patchy dense fog and low ceilings ahead of a weak, diffuse frontal
boundary has led to widespread VLIFR to MVFR conditions across the
majority of the terminals. Expect these degraded conditions to
continue through 14-15Z before returning to VFR. Winds will remain
light for northern areas throughout the day. Near and south of
I-10, winds will be predominantly southwesterly to southerly
between 6-10 kt. Going into tonight, there will be another window
for patchy dense fog to develop again ahead of an approaching
strong cold front. This is most likely to occur at SGR/LBX after
04Z. Decreased visibilities will subside following the passage of
the front. Northerly winds gradually increase in the wake of the
front with sustained winds reaching near 15 kt with 25 kt gusts by
the end of the current TAF period. Expect these winds to continue
to increase going into Sunday afternoon.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of patchy fog inland could spill in across portions of the
upper bay again late tonight into the early morning hours. After a
stretch of tranquil marine conditions, a cold front is expected
pass off the coast between 2am-6am Sunday. There will be some
stronger onshore winds before the front, but particularly higher
north winds and building seas after the front passes. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected, along with at least some gusts
to gale force.

There is some potential for more widespread gale
conditions on the Gulf between late Sunday morning and early
Monday morning. A gale watch has been issued for this timeframe,
and as confidence in just how strong the post-frontal winds are
expected to be, will be converted to either a high-end small
craft advisory or a gale warning accordingly. Though the odds
probably favor a very high end small craft advisory with sporadic
gale gusts, it would not take a big upward adjustment in the winds
to give us more widespread gales.

Another potential hazard behind the front is for low water
conditions late Sunday and Monday, which will also be impacted by
the strength of the expected winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday and
Monday as gusty northerly winds prevail in the wake of a strong
cold front that pushes through late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning. Drier air behind the front will lead to minimum RH values
in the 25-35% range on Sunday and 15-25% range on Monday. While
the driest conditions hold off until Monday, winds will be the
strongest on Sunday with the strongest sustained winds around
20 mph and gusts around 30 mph. Winds on Monday will start out
gusty, but gradually subside throughout the day.

A couple rain events over the past couple of weeks will help
temper the threat posed by the dry and windy conditions,
particularly in the northeast towards the Piney Woods. Data from
the Texas A&M Forest Service indicates above, but near normal,
fuel conditions becoming more unusually dry as the drier airmass
sets in. The need for any fire weather watches and/or red flag
warnings will depend on how much the critically low humidity,
strong winds, and drier vegetation line up. Regardless of whether
a warning is issued or not, fire weather conditions will be near
critical to critical - it will be important to use extreme caution
with flame and sparks, as well as obey all burn restrictions and
burn bans to minimize the ignition of new fires.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  57  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  61  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  65  73  47 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ214-226-
     227-235>238-313-335>338.

GM...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs