Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
099 FXUS64 KHGX 232334 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 534 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return on Monday as a warm front lifts north. - The next round of showers and thunderstorms will be late Monday into Tuesday. Isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. - A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through Wednesday morning, bringing cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Ridging sits aloft today with a stalled boundary over the Gulf waters. This boundary should lift north as a warm front throughout the day. Highs are still expected to be 1-5 degrees cooler on the whole, though still in the 70s/lower 80s. Overnight temperatures should see a more noticeable rise with the influx of moisture with early morning lows forecasted in the mid 50s to upper 60s. More active weather is still slated for Monday as an upper level trough is expected to fill through the Plains. PWs should climb to 1.3" and peak at upwards of 1.9", giving plenty of moisture for scattered showers and storms leading up to a cold front. SE Texas remains on the peripheral of the front-right entrance to an upper level jet streak associated with the aforementioned trough. Though as mentioned before, SE Texas still remains relatively distant from the strongest forcing. Still, deeper moisture with a 20-40 knot LLJ will still provide an avenue for some isolated higher rainfall totals, especially on the northern end of our CWA. Bulk shear ranges from 35-50 knots and now instability is looking much more favorable in CAMs, showing ML CAPE of around 1000-1800 J/KG. 1km SRH also look favorable, exceeding 200 m2s2 in areas north/northeast of the Houston. Though timing adds a layer of uncertainty as to how this situation will unfold. Currently, model guidance has the cold front associated with the upper level trough reaching SE Texas late Monday afternoon/evening. Beyond that, models are split on how quickly the FROPA will progress. Among the CAMs, HRRR and ARW are faster, carrying it off the coast by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the FV3 and NAM are much slower, placing it off the coast around Tuesday afternoon/evening. More inclined to lean towards a slower FROPA, though generally expect it to pass between those two time periods. It`s very much possible that some stronger storms persist into Tuesday with the FROPA (especially if it`s slower), though the loss of dynamics makes such a scenario less likely. Rainfall totals through Monday continue to trend downward, forecasted to be generally under 1 inch, though higher amounts of 2- 3 cannot cannot be ruled out either. WPC has nearly all of SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Monday. Drier soils will largely mitigate flooding issues, making ponding on roadways and minor street flooding a remote possibility with any training storms, or in urban/areas with poor drainage. SPC has a Slight (level 2/5) risk of severe weather in place over the northern edge of our CWA with the remainder of the area under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk. All severe hazards are still in play. An upper level low moving through the Northern Plains should push a reinforcing cold front through the area Wednesday morning. This will usher in cooler and much more seasonable weather for Thanksgiving. Morning lows for the holiday are forecasted to be in the 30s/upper 40s inland and 50s near the coast. Daytime highs on Thanksgiving are anticipated to be in the 60s/lower 70s. Conditions will also be dry too with no rain expected. Heading into Friday, we`ll see onshore flow return and temperatures/rain chances rise into the weekend. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Ceilings for western terminals (CLL/LBX) are beginning to fluctuate right on the line between VFR and MVFR. Expect gradually decreasing ceilings from west to east going into the evening/overnight hours with widespread MVFR conditions anticipated by 09Z/Monday. Isolated instances of IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out...not necessarily expecting visibilities to be much of an issue with upper level cloud cover and southeasterly winds remaining a bit elevated overnight. Spotty showers will begin pushing through the area overnight through Monday afternoon, and this has been covered with VCSH at all area terminals. MVFR ceilings will stick around through the late morning/early afternoon before improving back to VFR. Also anticipating southerly winds to be on the gusty side with sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts. A line of showers/storms will enter the picture in the mid afternoon (around or after 21Z) from the northwest. Some of these storms could be on the strong side, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor as it pushes southward through Monday night. The timing is a bit uncertain, so the TEMPO`s in this TAF package are more of a general consensus based on the latest model guidance. These TEMPO`s show the potential for gusty winds and MVFR ceilings/visibilities due to these storms. Expect the 06Z TAF package to add additional clarity on the timing as well as include timing of the line of storms for the remaining terminals. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Winds will shift east to southeasterly later today as the remnants of the stalled boundary lift north as a warm front. Rain chances return late tonight, rising into Monday as the next disturbance passes north of the area. Caution flags may be needed early Monday morning through early Tuesday as winds strengthen. This may also bring a higher risk of rip currents to Gulf-facing beaches during this same period. Rain chances taper off on Tuesday as the next cold front pushes deeper into the Gulf. Moderate to strong northerly winds develop Wednesday morning as a reinforcing front moves through the area, likely necessitating Small Craft Advisories through Thursday morning. These stronger offshore winds may bring negative water levels at low tide in the upper portion of Galveston bay. Onshore flow returns by Friday. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 81 58 76 / 20 80 80 0 Houston (IAH) 65 83 66 80 / 10 50 80 40 Galveston (GLS) 70 79 70 79 / 10 30 60 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...03