Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
054 FXUS64 KHGX 041054 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 454 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant, dry weather is expected this week with gradual increases in temperatures and a modest increase in humidity. - The next front for our area is expected this weekend. This front looks like it will bring a wind shift and some briefly cooler temperatures, but little to no potential for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Temperatures and to a lesser extent, humidity, dominate forecast concerns for the next week. Ridging looks to settle into a prevailing role for the weather this week, keeping the sky mostly sunny and a gradual trend of warming temperatures through the week. The main question becomes just how hot and humid do conditions get by late in the week? Well, to be honest, I`m really tempted to copy and paste last night`s discussion in here, because not a whole lot has changed. Winds are currently light and somewhat variable, but are now more onshore than anything else, which sets us up for that gradual upward trend. For temperatures, Tuesday looks to have solidly above-average temperatures but only by just a little bit. Deeper into the week, both the NAEFS and Euro ensembles show mean 850 temps rising above the 90th percentile to above the 99th percentile Friday afternoon. This will bring afternoon highs in the middle to even upper 80s to the area, more reminiscent of summer than fall...which is pretty in keeping with how this autumn has gone for us. Friday may even start to bring us into the neighborhood of record highs due to those anomalously high low level temps, but for now I`m anticipating we come in just a bit short. Something to watch, though. Humidity also looks to be making a move upward as onshore flow becomes better established. However, without a real strong pressure gradient, and not the strongest surface high pumping stronger winds in from the Gulf, it at least appears to me that while the temps will be noticeably above average, it may be a bit more difficult to discern in the humidity. Our deterministic forecast still keeps 70 degree dewpoints out of the picture until Thursday night/Friday, and even then, the 70 degree contour is right at the coast. This will at least provide some consolation in that while we may see some summer-like temps, the humidity will not be as oppressive as we tend to see in the summer. Finally, this weekend, we`ll be looking for our next front. It seems like each successive model run is less and less impressed with the potential for rain with this frontal passage - last night it was already to the point that most of the rain chances in the model guidance had pulled back to the coastal Gulf waters, and tonight we barely have any slight chance PoPs, only in a small strip near the end of our coastal area of responsibility about 60 nm from shore. So, if you missed out on rain from our last frontal passage, don`t look to make that up here. At least it should bring us at least one day of below average temps (but maybe not more than one, so don`t get too excited, cold weather lovers). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 452 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail with SE winds between 7-10kt developing during the afternoon hours. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning for the northern terminals (CLL, UTS, and CXO). Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Favorable marine weather conditions are anticipated for most of the work week with light onshore flow and relatively low seas prevailing. Higher winds and seas are not anticipated until a frontal passage Saturday night or Sunday. As onshore winds increase ahead of the front, so too will the potential for rip currents, as well as an increase in tidal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 78 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 69 77 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Luchs