Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
368 FXUS64 KHGX 121845 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Low daytime relative humidity values continue to warrant fire weather risk the next several days. - Slight rain chances are possible near the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Little to no rain expected for Southeast Texas through at least mid-week as the persistent mid to upper level ridge continues to meander over Mexico and Texas. The high temperatures will continue in the upper 80s to lowers 90s for much of the week and the low temperatures will remain in the 60s for much of the inland portions and in the lower to mid 70s along the coast. Although the high temperatures will continue to run roughly between 5-10 degrees above normal this week, drier air will still allow for somewhat comfortable early mornings and evenings. Of course, this is subjective to those who live here, and if you`re like me, it`s been feeling pretty good in the evenings when temperatures drop to the mid to upper 80s :P. One minor change in the models is that the timing for the closed upper level low moving into eastern Mexico from the Gulf is faster, and now has it moving into that region sometime late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The ridge will then weaken as the upper low moves northeastward across Southeast Texas Thursday afternoon into Friday and a mid to upper trough slowly moves across the Rockies and the Southern Plains (we could see some slight rain chances on Friday). A cold front may then push south southeastward across Central TX on Saturday, possibly moving over Southeast TX sometime late Saturday into early Sunday, which could give us a little more rain in some spots. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions continue for most sites. LBX experiencing MVFR VSBYs due to patchy fog. Winds will be light out of the SE through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Light onshore winds and seas of 3 feet or less expected through Monday. East northeast winds return Tuesday into Wednesday and back to onshore Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Water levels may rise to 3.0-3.5 above MLLW during high tide through mid week. Slight rain chances are possible late Thursday into Saturday. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Daytime minimum RH`s bottom out between 30-45% into Tuesday, followed by a drier surge of air Wed. Light winds will still preclude Red Flag Warnings, but conditions are still favorable for fire starts should initiation occur. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger index is in the moderate-high territory. Please exercise caution when working with open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 89 67 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 85 76 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Cotto FIRE WEATHER...47