171
FXHW01 KWNH 170816
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 00Z Tue 18 Nov 2025 - 00Z Tue 25 Nov 2025

...Wet pattern to develop over the islands this week...

Trades are expected to gradually weaken over the next few days as
the supporting surface high to the northeast of the state loses
influence. Guidance mass field solutions remain reasonably well
clustered for much of the upcoming week, bolstering forecast
confidence. Tropical moisture will be pulled north to the state as
troughing at the surface and aloft settles over/west of the state
along with a slow frontal approach from the northwest. This will
fuel chances for enhanced island downpours with focus Tuesday into
Thursday. Trades and an increasing windward terrain rain pattern
focus should uptick mid-later week as renewed high pressure
bridges to the north of the state, albeit with a trend toward
reduced moisture heading into next weekend. Later, less certain
upstream upper trough and frontal approach by Sunday may renew
leading moisture return and rainfall potential again to monitor.

Schichtel

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