Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
044 FXUS66 KHNX 260843 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1243 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dense Fog Advisory issued for the San Joaquin Valley valid through 1 PM Thursday due to persistent chances for fog each night and morning through that timeframe. 2. Temperatures near to just below season averages through the week. 3. Indications for a low pressure system over the western US to end the month, though uncertainty remains for exact location and impacts for central California. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model ensembles are in a strong agreement that the ridge of high pressure is continuing to move onshore today into tomorrow. The moving of this ridge has helped the past two nights to not be completely fogged in despite the colder air flowing in from the north at the higher levels combined with the subsidence inversion common with ridges. Temperatures will improve today as the cloud heights are much higher which will favor heating. There is a 35 to 60 percent chance of high temperatures of at least 60 degrees today for most Valley locations but there is a 85 to almost 100 percent chance in the southern Valley near Bakersfield and the Sierra Nevada foothills. However, ensembles continue to diverge as to the timing and location of the next trough to move in over the Thanksgiving weekend. The ensembles do agree it would be more of an inside slider coming in over the Basin but the disagreement over location and timing leads to high uncertainty about the impacts of this storm to be persistent. The NBM continues to go drier with this system as the flow affiliated with it is more from continental British Canada and not from the Gulf of Alaska. Sunday has the best chance of any precipitation with this system but even the Valley has a 15 to 25 percent chance of any accumulation of rain. Snow also is not looking favorable as the NBM only gives Lodgepole and Tuolumne Meadows a 25 percent chance of an inch of snow or more. && .AVIATION... IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities will persist in most Valley locations through 18Z Wednesday. After 18Z, conditions will improve especially after 20Z. However, MVFR to IFR conditions return around 06Z Thursday for the overnight hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday November 26 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced County and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Thursday for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312-314-315. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford