354
FXUS66 KHNX 140943
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
143 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. The significant storm system will continue to impact the
region today, with moderate rainfall below 8000 feet and
moderate to heavy snowfall above 8000 feet expected throughout
the day. There is also the potential for thunderstorms again
this afternoon.

2. The system shifts south by Saturday, bringing potentially
excessive rainfall to the Kern desert and mountains, the south
Valley and into the southern Sierra Nevada foothills and
southern West Side Hills.

3. A second, colder system may bring additional precipitation
to much of the region by Sunday night into Monday, with snow
levels down to 5000 to 6000 feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An active week is ahead for the region, with a significant storm
system continuing to cross the region today that is expected to
bring moderate rainfall to the elevations below 8000 feet, and
moderate to heavy snowfall above 8000 feet. A Winter Storm
Warning has been issued for Wednesday night through Thursday
night, upgraded from the previous Watch issued earlier this
week. Snow totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with up to 2
feet in the highest elevations of the mountains. There is also a
Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall for our
northern-most counties and into the lower Sierra Nevada and
foothills that day as well. There is also a 10-20% chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon as the dynamics with this cut- off
may be able to fuel development along with afternoon heating,
though a 5 to 10% chance for development this morning.

The system is then expected to shift south by Saturday while
remaining offshore, leading to more moisture coming in from the
south and impacting the Kern County desert and mountains, as
well as the southern-most Sierra Nevada and southern San Joaquin
Valley. Another Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall has been
issued for Friday in those areas, and a Slight Risk (at least
15%) has been issued for the same region on Saturday, mainly for
Kern County and southern portions of Kings and Tulare Counties.

A second system may impact the region by early Monday morning,
with an open trough coming down from the north and pulling in
cold air from Canada, leading to a cooler system and lowered
snow levels. These levels are currently forecast to start at
6000 feet before dropping to around 5000 feet, meaning lower
elevation snow for the Sierra Nevada. So far this system appears
to be slightly drier than the one before it, but the
precipitation may still be significant. This system is then
expected to clear out by Tuesday evening, though this may change
as the forecast is refined. A third system is being hinted at
for Thursday morning, though preliminary QPF is fairly light.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday November 14, 2025, No Burning Unless Registered in
Fresno, Kern, Madera and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater
Frazier Park Area). Burning Discouraged in Kings and Merced
Counties, and Sequoia National Park and Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for CAZ321-322-332>339.
Flood Watch through this afternoon for CAZ317>320-324-325.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ323-
326>331.
&&

$$

EW

weather.gov/hanford