Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
419 FXUS66 KHNX 182020 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 120 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will take place for the remainder of the week and widespread triple digit maximum temperatures are anticipated across the lower elevations between Saturday and the middle of next week. 2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION...The upper trough which brought cooler than normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions to our area on Sunday and Monday is now centered over the Great Basin leaving central CA under a cool onshore flow pattern although wind have diminished across most of our area and as a result the Red Flag Warning which had been in effect for much of our area was cancelled earlier today. The SREF is showing upper troughing prevailing over the western CONUS through Thursday and as a result temperatures will only slowly moderate toward normal by Thursday. While winds are expected to remain fairly light and be more terrain drive for the next two days, low daytime humidity and poor overnight recovery will remain a concern for increased fire potential along the West Side Hills and portions of the Kern County Mountains. A change in the overall pattern is expected to take place beginning Friday as an upper ridge builds over the southwestern CONUS. The ridge is progged to strengthen over CA this weekend with 500 mb heights expected to rise above 590 dm. The strengthening ridge will result in a return of widespread triple digit maximum temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills, Lower Sierra Foothills and Kern County Deserts by Saturday. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a PoE of 105 DEG F between 35 to 70 percent for most of the San Joaquin Valley on Saturday and between 30 and 60 percent for most of the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday. With minimum temepratures for much of the valley progged to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s this weekend as a dry airmass prevails, will continue to message the potential for high heat risk for the weekend. NBM is showing a slight cooling trend on Monday and Tuesday although maximum temperatures are still progged to be in the triple digits across most of the lower elevations. Some of the ensemble members are showing a fairly significant trough pushing into the western CONUS late next week. If this idea pans out temperatures will lower to near near normal levels. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public/aviation/fire wx...DAS idss...BSO weather.gov/hanford