Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
745 FXUS66 KHNX 131833 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1133 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend with a warmup to above average next week. Triple digit chances return Tuesday and Wednesday for the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 2. Smoke will continue to linger as the Garnet Fire continues to burn but with improving conditions; the smoke will not be as thick or widespread. 3. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next week as moisture tracks over the region from the south. && .DISCUSSION... In the wake of a trough exiting the western United States today, a weak ridge will build in over California, strengthening into the upcoming week. As a result, temperatures will warm above season averages, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 90s. For both days, there is a 70 to 100 percent chance to exceed 95 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. However, other than south of Bakersfield, western Kings County, and in Ridgecrest, there is less than a five percent chance to exceed 100 degrees; the areas listed have a 10 to 40 percent chance for these temperatures. The stagnant air created by the building high pressure will cause winds across the region to largely be relatively light and diurnal, except for the typical wind-prone areas such as Pacheco Pass, Lake Isabella, and the Mojave Desert Slopes. This may come with a cost though, as the subsidence aloft associated with the high pressure may result in smoke from the Garnet Fire being trapped nearer to the surface and unable to disperse effectively. Towards the end of the week, ensemble guidance points towards a potential tropical system developing in the eastern Pacific south of Baja California. While this system is anticipated to track further west away from the coast, outflow moisture is projected to be picked up by a localized area of low pressure sliding into California Thursday into Friday. This pattern will be favorable for showers and thunderstorms to move through central California, especially in the foothill and mountain areas, with a 10 to 15 percent chance for convective development as things stand. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. Areas of Dense Smoke aloft along the Sierra Nevada over eastern Fresno County and nearby counties from the Garnet Fire may impact visibility. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy idss/pio..........Molina weather.gov/hanford