262
FXUS66 KHNX 090815
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
115 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures into
the weekend. However, precipitation chances in the Valley and
Sierra Nevada are at 10 percent or less through Friday.

2. Tropical moisture from the south will result in a 5 to 15 percent
probability for thunderstorms in the Kern Desert Thursday and
Friday.

3. Maximum wind gusts along the crests of the Sierra have a 40
to 80 percent probability to exceed 40 mph Thursday and Friday.

4. Potential for a deeper system to develop into next week, with
widespread 40 to 70 percent probabilities for 0.1" or greater
of precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cooling trend begins today through next week as a cutoff low begins
to slide into California. However, the probabilities of rain in
most locations have dropped over the past few model runs that it
will be mostly dry with a 10 to 40 percent chance of very high
elevations getting a dusting of snow. However, conditions will
be mostly dry in the Valley with a 10 percent chance or less of
any rain. However, moisture from the remnants of Priscilla will
be picked up by the low into the Kern Desert later today through
Saturday. There is a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms for
the Desert with a 5 to 20 percent chance of at least a tenth of
an inch. This trough also brings wind gusts to the Sierra Nevada
with higher elevations having a 40 to 80 percent chance of gusts
of at least 40 mph. The Desert slopes see a 35 to 90 percent
chance of 40 mph gusts on Saturday as the low moves east causing
downslope winds to be favorable.

However, a second deeper trough will also retrograde into our
area Monday into Tuesday. This trough brings a better chance of
rain as there is a 40 to 70 percent chance of at least a tenth
of an inch of rain in the Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. This
trough is also colder with snow levels dropping to about 6,500
bringing the possibility of snow to the Sierra Nevada. There
also is a 50 to 80 percent chance of high temperatures below 70
degrees Tuesday and next Wednesday in the Valley with lows in
the 40s returning Sunday morning.


&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through 12Z Friday.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford