Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
771 FXUS66 KHNX 080916 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 116 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures today as a warm up occurs on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. 2. Patchy fog developing each night until the arrival of the next storm. 3. Next storm system moves in Wednesday into next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the West Coast as sunny skies, warmer temperatures and morning fog dominate Central Californias weather. This pattern will hold true through next Tuesday. Change will start on Wednesday as the ridge pattern shifts east ahead of a transition toward wet weather. In the meanwhile, warming trend will take temperatures above seasonal normal values this weekend and into next week. Temperatures have started there warming trend and are already pushing above seasonal normal values. While much of Central California will feel the warm temperatures, Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees has the best chances across the Southern Portions of the district. Areas south of the City of Fresno will have PoE of 60% to 90% with Kern County favoring the much higher PoEs. Fresno is still coming in at 45% with areas northward dropping as 80 degrees will be more unlikely. Monday will see PoE peak out and begin dropping on Tuesday and Wednesday. The cooling trend will into next weekend. A storm moving into the region on Wednesday will initiate the cooling as wet weather returns around the Wednesday time frame. Long range ensemble analysis indicating the onset of precipitation over Central California starting Wednesday evening with Probability of Measurable Precipitation above a tenth (0.10) of an inch closer to Thursday. While some uncertainty in the magnitude currently exist, longer range ensemble moisture analysis is leaning toward the introduction of a weak to moderate Atmospheric River as chances of receiving heavy precipitation (near 1.00) rises above 20 percent. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR to IFR conditions will exist this morning until 18Z. A few patches of LIFR conditions will also exist between 12Z and 17Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Saturday November 8, 2025, No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area). Burning Discouraged in Merced County, and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford